Explain the demographics…

[Anonymous]

I’ve heard people on this forum and others say that college admissions are so though now because of a demographic surge — more kids applying to colleges. But the WaPo article from today about colleges closing said we’re in a demographic dip. Which is it? It seems like it’s now super hard to get into the top tier and even middle tier schools, but the bottom tier schools are closing due to low enrollment. Where are all the average kids gojng?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’ve heard people on this forum and others say that college admissions are so though now because of a demographic surge — more kids applying to colleges. But the WaPo article from today about colleges closing said we’re in a demographic dip. Which is it? It seems like it’s now super hard to get into the top tier and even middle tier schools, but the bottom tier schools are closing due to low enrollment. Where are all the average kids gojng?

Dip hasn’t happened yet. Next year is peak and then it declined thereafter eventually falling off a cliff.

For infants now—birth rate is the absolute lowest it’s been in a CENTURY (100 years!!). But these are infants. 18 years until they hit college
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/04/24/health/us-birth-rate-decline-2023-cdc

[Anonymous]

Ok, so I heard also peak is 25, my DC is going to college in 26 and Im confused if 25 is peak as per articles or 26 given DC has number of kids in their graduating year

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Ok, so I heard also peak is 25, my DC is going to college in 26 and Im confused if 25 is peak as per articles or 26 given DC has HIGHEST number of kids in their graduating year

[Anonymous]

Both are correct. The enrollment decline begins after the class of 2025 as the number of HS seniors drops. The other issue is kids are applying to the same 30-40 schools, so admission to those schools will continue to be more challenging.

[Anonymous]

peak birth year is 2007. Some of these kids are 2025 and some are 2026. Or if you are a redshirter, they might even be 2027 or 2028 as evidenced by my sons’ basketball and football teams😜

[Anonymous]

The top colleges receive more and more applications. Blame it on TikTok and Instagram. Kids only want to go to the "best" schools, so you'll continue to see applications to the top schools go up. Combined with foreign students clamoring for a US education, the top colleges will only get harder to get into.

Look at the insanity. UC colleges get over 100,000 applications, including UCLA, Berkeley, UCSD, UCI. NYU gets over 120,000 applications. USC got over 80,000 applications. Northeastern got almost 100,000 applications. Princeton got almost 40,000 applications. Less than 10 years ago, Princeton was getting only 25,000. applications.

[Anonymous]

As was discussed on another thread, there are actually vey few international students accepted (many apply). The selection is harsher for students from abroad.

I don't see that changing any time soon, because China has a real estate problem, and other Asian countries and Europe are bordering recessions. Most foreigners simply don't have the money for international tuition, room and board.

So take that out of the equation.

You're left with every US student dreaming of the Ivies and assimilated. THAT is the real problem! The small no-name colleges are rapidly closing, but none of these are colleges most of us have ever heard of. The majority of kids apply to the better-known ones... hence the scrum at the gate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:As was discussed on another thread, there are actually vey few international students accepted (many apply). The selection is harsher for students from abroad.

I don't see that changing any time soon, because China has a real estate problem, and other Asian countries and Europe are bordering recessions. Most foreigners simply don't have the money for international tuition, room and board.

So take that out of the equation.

You're left with every US student dreaming of the Ivies and assimilated. THAT is the real problem! The small no-name colleges are rapidly closing, but none of these are colleges most of us have ever heard of. The majority of kids apply to the better-known ones... hence the scrum at the gate.

There are over 1.4 million foreign students studying at colleges in the US compared to 700,000 in 2010.

https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d15/tables/dt15_310.20.asp

[Anonymous]

International students are not driving the competition but they do contribute to it.

My neighbor boards Chinese students in her home for a local private high school. They are still coming here with enough cash to buy the car of their choice and pay tuition and room and board that is on par with many colleges in coa. China may have a real estate problem but they still have families who can afford U.S. schools.

[Anonymous]

Read the articles…the number of kids actually going to college is down 14% since 2012. It is projected to drop another 15% over the next 10 years.

Schools like UWV are 27% smaller since 2012…schools like Shippensburg in PA are 40% smaller.

The top 200 are generally benefitting at the expense of the rest.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:International students are not driving the competition but they do contribute to it.

My neighbor boards Chinese students in her home for a local private high school. They are still coming here with enough cash to buy the car of their choice and pay tuition and room and board that is on par with many colleges in coa. China may have a real estate problem but they still have families who can afford U.S. schools.

Yes. Because the Chinese middle class is larger than the entire US population. There are plenty of wealthy Chinese people who can afford US universities.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Read the articles…the number of kids actually going to college is down 14% since 2012. It is projected to drop another 15% over the next 10 years.

Schools like UWV are 27% smaller since 2012…schools like Shippensburg in PA are 40% smaller.

The top 200 are generally benefitting at the expense of the rest.

I think this trend is going to keep rolling...the huge interest in top universities.

I can remember being told that the small size of my Gen-X generation would benefit me in the labor market...this never came true until after Covid when a huge amount of Boomers finally took their pensions and left the job market for good. So I'm skeptical that my class of 2031 baby's going to get any big benefit from demographics.

[Anonymous]

Yeah, to me it seems like the growing volume of international applicants will dwarf any dip in US birth rates.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:International students are not driving the competition but they do contribute to it.

My neighbor boards Chinese students in her home for a local private high school. They are still coming here with enough cash to buy the car of their choice and pay tuition and room and board that is on par with many colleges in coa. China may have a real estate problem but they still have families who can afford U.S. schools.

Yes. Because the Chinese middle class is larger than the entire US population. There are plenty of wealthy Chinese people who can afford US universities.

This. US demographics don't matter. Chinese, Indian and other Internationals will be thrilked to pay full freight to go to college here