+1. The percentage of internationals in most U.S. schools is still very small compared to the UK; excepting the schools that have already done it — NYU, BU etc. — selective schools (top 100 or so, including SLACs) will simply up their international percentage to make up for the demographic cliff (full pay or mostly full pay). Less selective private schools with relatively low endowment per student will not be able to do that, so they will be in trouble. |
But only for certain schools. They will likely care about brand. |
And we aalps discussed this wasn’t the case at many selective schools where internationals students make up 10 to a full 25 percent of the enrolled student body, |
The so-called cliff is more a slope. The ending point is the size of the domestic college applying pool of 2012. |
This. And it’s not just China. Also India and the Middle East. |
"thrilked," btw, is a portmanteau of "thrilled" and "milked." |
The dip will not effect the top 100 or even the top 1,000 schools. It's the bottom of the barrel schools, either unaccredited or taking kids money for degrees they'll never earn or for jobs they'll never get that will be in trouble, and that's ok |
Selective schools are at most 10% international undergrads on average (that is the average at Ivy schools). Now if you include graduate students, that may skew the stats. |
Number is applications and number of attendees are two different numbers. Kids are applying to 20+ schools now but obviously only attending one. Are more kids going to be waiting until May to find out if they get off waiting lists? |
Most will likely care about brand, but there are still tons of families happy to get any foot in the U.S. door. |
The answer is simple, there was a spike in birth rate around 2006-2007, so there are more kids competing for approx. the same number of places in college, ie more competition and harder to get in. Based on the graph, it will be less competitive for the 2010-2015 cohort when they reach the college application age.... |
Agree with everyone that the demographic dip won't affect competitive college admissions in a favorable way, and if anything it will give administrators at elite schools an excuse to increase their international or OOS admits. For example, at my alma mater (HYP), the % of international students has gone from 4% when I was there to almost 15% this year. So that aspect of student population definitely contributes to the perception that schools have become difficult to get into.
The demographic dip will and is already affecting primary and secondary education. In my area, public high schools in well-off suburban districts predict that their current graduating classes will drop by 25% by the time my current 2015-born, 3rd grade child is in HS. Independent schools that are not the top schools in their city are suffering and already making plans for the demographic cliff- go to any independent school association conference and it's one of the main topics of conversation. Schools that don't have attached high schools are especially worried, because the K-5 and K-8 schools will be hit first and are already seeing declines in applications. As primary, mid and lower tier independent schools close, shrink or consolidate, you'll see even more people pushing to get entry into the top schools that are left. So in short: demographic cliff won't help but will just have the same people fighting for less of the top and not-quite-top spots. Unfortunately the anxiety that a lot of parents feel about increasing competition for decreasing resources has a lot of factual support. |