Naviance is wrong

[Anonymous]

2010 scores (on Naviance) are almost a decade old.

In the current environment, that is prehistoric

[Anonymous]

Yep. It may be why there are so MANY rude posters making disparaging comments about schools where admission is very difficult to obtain... and over confident about their child’s likely college acceptances.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Here's an example from DD's Naviance: I'm picking NYU, because it's popular, but my DD doesn't want to go there. In the last 3 years, 33 students have applied and 6 have been accepted. That's an acceptance rate of 18%, which is much lower than the national acceptance rate for NYU. Looking more closely at the Scattergram, 6 out of 7 students who applied with an SAT over 1400 got accepted. (I'm not sure how many years of application cycles the Scattergrams cover). There were many students waitlisted who scored between 1350 and 1400.

My DD is at a school with a high poverty rate. Less than 50% of students go directly to a 4 year university. A small percentage go out of state. I think that in this circumstance, a high SAT counts for a lot, because universities can't trust that an A means a lot (there isn't much competition). We have a very diverse school, and I want to assure the public that URM's are not getting high acceptance rates simply because they are URM.

It's also possible that NYU doesn't bother to admit many students from DD's school because NYU knows that it offers crappy financial aid. The yield is not likely to be high once students see the bottom line. My conclusion is that IF DD wanted to go to NYU, she would have a very good chance with a 1400+ SAT, but nothing is guaranteed. Thoughts?

NYU acceptance rate for 2019 was 16%. I am nit sure what old data you are looking at .... 2018 was 18%. So you entire point us dumb.

Naviance for my DD's school lists the national acceptance rate for NYU as 35% in a huge font. It claims the data is from 2018. Can I sue Naviance for serious inaccuracy? I believed what it told me. It sounds like the acceptance rate for NYU has decreased rapidly in the past few years. If that's the case, the acceptance rate at DD's school has been lower than the national acceptance rate from the same years.

The opposite is true with more unusual schools. So few people apply to U Toronto from DD's school that the acceptance rate is extremely high.

That's your fault for not researching the schools more carefully.
I can see from your post you didn't research U Toronto carefully either.
U Toronto acceptance rate has always been extremely high for everyone. Kids with only 1300s SATs have a decent chance of getting in.
It's a very big school with a terrible undergrad reputation but a good research reputation.

I bet you just searched U Toronto rankings, saw it was high in those global research rankings and assumed it was a good undergrad institution, then called it a day.

I personally know at least 6 people who went to U Toronto. They all have Ph.D's. So, yes, I assumed it is a good university. Several attended Toronto as undergrads (even though American in origin) and received their Ph.D's elsewhere. Sorry I have a small sample set, but I've been impressed with Toronto grads.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Who said Naviance was a definite predictor of where your kid would get in?

No one, however, it is misleading. So just a heads up

Grades and test scores gets your application a review, but admission is based on other things.

The data is skewed by athletes, URMs, legacies, and other hooked applicants.

Or the counseling office not bothering to make sure the numbers are not 5 years old in school acceptance rates! That might be why so many posters say schools thinks schools are easier to accepted at than reality!

FCPS parent here.

Are there different version of Naviance? Ours has data points from the previous 3 years in the scattergrams. I believe the supermath numbers say that they are from 2010 and forward. What are you all talking about when you say “old data”?

Yes, the scattergrams are from the past 3 years. Could you please tell me what your version of Naviance says is the national acceptance rate for NYU? Does it also say that its data is from 2018? I'd appreciate hearing your feedback.

[Anonymous]

Where does it say when the data is from?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Who said Naviance was a definite predictor of where your kid would get in?

No one, however, it is misleading. So just a heads up

Grades and test scores gets your application a review, but admission is based on other things.

The data is skewed by athletes, URMs, legacies, and other hooked applicants.

Or the counseling office not bothering to make sure the numbers are not 5 years old in school acceptance rates! That might be why so many posters say schools thinks schools are easier to accepted at than reality!

FCPS parent here.

Are there different version of Naviance? Ours has data points from the previous 3 years in the scattergrams. I believe the supermath numbers say that they are from 2010 and forward. What are you all talking about when you say “old data”?

Yes, the scattergrams are from the past 3 years. Could you please tell me what your version of Naviance says is the national acceptance rate for NYU? Does it also say that its data is from 2018? I'd appreciate hearing your feedback.

DP here but our Naviance says 2018 acceptance rate 35% for NYU.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Who said Naviance was a definite predictor of where your kid would get in?

No one, however, it is misleading. So just a heads up

Grades and test scores gets your application a review, but admission is based on other things.

The data is skewed by athletes, URMs, legacies, and other hooked applicants.

Or the counseling office not bothering to make sure the numbers are not 5 years old in school acceptance rates! That might be why so many posters say schools thinks schools are easier to accepted at than reality!

FCPS parent here.

Are there different version of Naviance? Ours has data points from the previous 3 years in the scattergrams. I believe the supermath numbers say that they are from 2010 and forward. What are you all talking about when you say “old data”?

Yes, the scattergrams are from the past 3 years. Could you please tell me what your version of Naviance says is the national acceptance rate for NYU? Does it also say that its data is from 2018? I'd appreciate hearing your feedback.

NP. I think it varies based on the High School. My son is interested in NYU and our Naviance has acceptances for the past three years with an acceptance rate of 35%. That seems way too high. More in line with the acceptance rate from four years ago based on: https://nyunews.com/2019/03/28/nyu-acceptance-rate-drops-to-16-percent-for-the-class-of-2023/

Can only guess what it will be when he applies next year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Who said Naviance was a definite predictor of where your kid would get in?

No one, however, it is misleading. So just a heads up

Grades and test scores gets your application a review, but admission is based on other things.

The data is skewed by athletes, URMs, legacies, and other hooked applicants.

Or the counseling office not bothering to make sure the numbers are not 5 years old in school acceptance rates! That might be why so many posters say schools thinks schools are easier to accepted at than reality!

FCPS parent here.

Are there different version of Naviance? Ours has data points from the previous 3 years in the scattergrams. I believe the supermath numbers say that they are from 2010 and forward. What are you all talking about when you say “old data”?

Yes, the scattergrams are from the past 3 years. Could you please tell me what your version of Naviance says is the national acceptance rate for NYU? Does it also say that its data is from 2018? I'd appreciate hearing your feedback.

NP. I think it varies based on the High School. My son is interested in NYU and our Naviance has acceptances for the past three years with an acceptance rate of 35%. That seems way too high. More in line with the acceptance rate from four years ago based on: https://nyunews.com/2019/03/28/nyu-acceptance-rate-drops-to-16-percent-for-the-class-of-2023/

Can only guess what it will be when he applies next year.

The 35% number is from the class accepted in 2012 which graduated in 2016 ... The number acceptance number has steadily gone down over the last 7 classes. I wonder if other acceptance rates are that old on Naviance?

[Anonymous]

My kid's Naviance show lots of kids with super high stats getting rejected from top schools. You can't just look at the scores of the kids who got in and assume that's the bar. I highly doubt that your Naviance doesn't have lots of high stats kids being rejected. The top schools reject MOST of the high stats kids who apply. The data is not wrong. You just misinterpreted what it meant.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Where does it say when the data is from?

In our Naviance (FCPS), the scattergrams have a breakdown of number of apps, and admits from the last 3 years broken down by year. It’s the graphic above the plot.

Also, in Supermatch, it will say (at least ours), that the following data was pulled from 2010-2018. Supermatcb is the function that based on the last 7-8 years data, and based on your test scores and GPA, gives your student’s chances at a specific school in a percentage value. Honestly, this was pretty accurate for our DC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My kid's Naviance show lots of kids with super high stats getting rejected from top schools. You can't just look at the scores of the kids who got in and assume that's the bar. I highly doubt that your Naviance doesn't have lots of high stats kids being rejected. The top schools reject MOST of the high stats kids who apply. The data is not wrong. You just misinterpreted what it meant.

For certain competitive colleges, Naviance does NOT show lots of high stats kids being rejected. My DD goes to a high-poverty school in MCPS. The high stats kids really stand out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Who said Naviance was a definite predictor of where your kid would get in?

No one, however, it is misleading. So just a heads up

Grades and test scores gets your application a review, but admission is based on other things.

The data is skewed by athletes, URMs, legacies, and other hooked applicants.

Or the counseling office not bothering to make sure the numbers are not 5 years old in school acceptance rates! That might be why so many posters say schools thinks schools are easier to accepted at than reality!

FCPS parent here.

Are there different version of Naviance? Ours has data points from the previous 3 years in the scattergrams. I believe the supermath numbers say that they are from 2010 and forward. What are you all talking about when you say “old data”?

Yes, the scattergrams are from the past 3 years. Could you please tell me what your version of Naviance says is the national acceptance rate for NYU? Does it also say that its data is from 2018? I'd appreciate hearing your feedback.

DP here but our Naviance says 2018 acceptance rate 35% for NYU.

So, this data point is glaringly wrong. Disappointing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trying to predict admission decisions from Naviance is like trying to predict today’s weather based on this date’s historical weather records. It will give you a range of likely outcomes but there’s far too much uncertainty to make a specific prediction

+1. It's just a helpful tool, especially unreliable when it comes to in-state schools. All in-state schools are receiving surges in applications from MC and UMC students who understand their parents can't afford $75K a year for four or five years. Every year, the goal line moves for the in-state schools. If you are working with data that are even two years out of date, it won't give you a true picture of your child's chances of getting in.

[Anonymous]

Yeah, my daughter thought Ohio State was a safety. She has the highest GPA and ACT of anyone who ever got in at her school the last 3 years.

She was rejected yesterday.
3.7 UW and 33 ACT. Lots of EC’s but who know how much they look at that.

Going on College Confidential and seeing kids with 24 ACT and 3.3 UW get in is pretty confusing though.

She didn’t care as she already picked Case Western who gave her a massive package, but it was pretty shocking.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yeah, my daughter thought Ohio State was a safety. She has the highest GPA and ACT of anyone who ever got in at her school the last 3 years.

She was rejected yesterday.
3.7 UW and 33 ACT. Lots of EC’s but who know how much they look at that.

Going on College Confidential and seeing kids with 24 ACT and 3.3 UW get in is pretty confusing though.

She didn’t care as she already picked Case Western who gave her a massive package, but it was pretty shocking.

Yield protection and they perhaps thought she needed too much financial aid. Out of state, high stats AND full pay is an advantage at OSU