Coates Elementary

[Anonymous]

Has anyone heard why Coates went from 113% capacity in 2022 to 131% capacity in 2023? Seems like that is driving the projection of 172% capacity in 2028. They’re going to do a boundary study on it, but I’m just wondering what the driving force is?

[Anonymous]

There is a lot of new housing construction going on within the schools boundary.

[Anonymous]

It’s not only an influx of students, it’s also that it appears to be an unanticipated influx, given the prior year 5 year projection was that the school would be at 120% and then the next year it went to 172%. That’s a shockingly huge increase and couldn’t be caused by additional housing stock alone, right?

[Anonymous]

Not sure about Coates but the purported explanation for the increase at Parklawn (also getting a boundary study) was a big influx in Afghan refugees.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Has anyone heard why Coates went from 113% capacity in 2022 to 131% capacity in 2023? Seems like that is driving the projection of 172% capacity in 2028. They’re going to do a boundary study on it, but I’m just wondering what the driving force is?

I wish you would ask this all in one thread instead of each school/pyramid. We know you’re anti-change, protect your own bubble-dom.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Has anyone heard why Coates went from 113% capacity in 2022 to 131% capacity in 2023? Seems like that is driving the projection of 172% capacity in 2028. They’re going to do a boundary study on it, but I’m just wondering what the driving force is?

I wish you would ask this all in one thread instead of each school/pyramid. We know you’re anti-change, protect your own bubble-dom.

What in the world are you talking about?

Regardless of your unwarranted broadside, happy to consolidate with other questions that are relevant.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Has anyone heard why Coates went from 113% capacity in 2022 to 131% capacity in 2023? Seems like that is driving the projection of 172% capacity in 2028. They’re going to do a boundary study on it, but I’m just wondering what the driving force is?

I wish you would ask this all in one thread instead of each school/pyramid. We know you’re anti-change, protect your own bubble-dom.

What in the world are you talking about?

Regardless of your unwarranted broadside, happy to consolidate with other questions that are relevant.

You're better off with a stand-alone thread about Coates.

Coates enrollment history:

2009-10: 536 (school opened)
2010-11: 658
2011-12: 717
2012-13: 752
2013-14: 790
2014-15: 765
2015-16: 745
2016-17: 735
2017-18: 710
2018-19: 713
2019-20: 730
2020-21: 728
2021-22: 756
2022-23: 851
2023-24: 963 [design capacity 930; program capacity 716]

So it appears that, in the first two years Coates was open, the enrollment was increasing gradually because some students were grandfathered at their prior schools. Then the enrollment was relatively stable from 2011 to 2021. Over the past two years, the enrollment has spiked. The biggest increase is among students identified as "White" (which currently may include students from the Middle East), followed by smaller increases in the number of Hispanic and Black students (the number of Asian students has been declining). Over the past two years, the FARMS percentage at the school has also increased (from 46 to 58%).

The program capacity is apparently much lower than the design capacity because of smaller class sizes for K-3 classes and other programs at the school (autism services).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Has anyone heard why Coates went from 113% capacity in 2022 to 131% capacity in 2023? Seems like that is driving the projection of 172% capacity in 2028. They’re going to do a boundary study on it, but I’m just wondering what the driving force is?

I wish you would ask this all in one thread instead of each school/pyramid. We know you’re anti-change, protect your own bubble-dom.

What in the world are you talking about?

Regardless of your unwarranted broadside, happy to consolidate with other questions that are relevant.

You're better off with a stand-alone thread about Coates.

Coates enrollment history:

2009-10: 536 (school opened)
2010-11: 658
2011-12: 717
2012-13: 752
2013-14: 790
2014-15: 765
2015-16: 745
2016-17: 735
2017-18: 710
2018-19: 713
2019-20: 730
2020-21: 728
2021-22: 756
2022-23: 851
2023-24: 963 [design capacity 930; program capacity 716]

So it appears that, in the first two years Coates was open, the enrollment was increasing gradually because some students were grandfathered at their prior schools. Then the enrollment was relatively stable from 2011 to 2021. Over the past two years, the enrollment has spiked. The biggest increase is among students identified as "White" (which currently may include students from the Middle East), followed by smaller increases in the number of Hispanic and Black students (the number of Asian students has been declining). Over the past two years, the FARMS percentage at the school has also increased (from 46 to 58%).

The program capacity is apparently much lower than the design capacity because of smaller class sizes for K-3 classes and other programs at the school (autism services).

Thank you for this analysis and numbers above. It’s not an AAP center, right? Has there been an influx of refugees (honestly asking, not opining one way or the other on it)?

It’d be interesting to see the assumptions that go into the 172% projection. I wonder if we’ll learn more about the situation from the upcoming scoping.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Has anyone heard why Coates went from 113% capacity in 2022 to 131% capacity in 2023? Seems like that is driving the projection of 172% capacity in 2028. They’re going to do a boundary study on it, but I’m just wondering what the driving force is?

I wish you would ask this all in one thread instead of each school/pyramid. We know you’re anti-change, protect your own bubble-dom.

What in the world are you talking about?

Regardless of your unwarranted broadside, happy to consolidate with other questions that are relevant.

You're better off with a stand-alone thread about Coates.

Coates enrollment history:

2009-10: 536 (school opened)
2010-11: 658
2011-12: 717
2012-13: 752
2013-14: 790
2014-15: 765
2015-16: 745
2016-17: 735
2017-18: 710
2018-19: 713
2019-20: 730
2020-21: 728
2021-22: 756
2022-23: 851
2023-24: 963 [design capacity 930; program capacity 716]

So it appears that, in the first two years Coates was open, the enrollment was increasing gradually because some students were grandfathered at their prior schools. Then the enrollment was relatively stable from 2011 to 2021. Over the past two years, the enrollment has spiked. The biggest increase is among students identified as "White" (which currently may include students from the Middle East), followed by smaller increases in the number of Hispanic and Black students (the number of Asian students has been declining). Over the past two years, the FARMS percentage at the school has also increased (from 46 to 58%).

The program capacity is apparently much lower than the design capacity because of smaller class sizes for K-3 classes and other programs at the school (autism services).

Thank you for this analysis and numbers above. It’s not an AAP center, right? Has there been an influx of refugees (honestly asking, not opining one way or the other on it)?

It’d be interesting to see the assumptions that go into the 172% projection. I wonder if we’ll learn more about the situation from the upcoming scoping.

Coates is not an AAP center. Nearby McNair is an AAP center. There are fewer than 10 kids living within the boundaries of other schools transferring into Coates this year.

When you have a substantial increase in the number of White kids at a school in FCPS accompanied by a big increase in the percentage of FARMS kids, it's likely that many are refugees from places like Afghanistan. According to a post from one website (not an FCPS website) from a few years ago:

"Virginia has the second largest Afghan community in the US—having over 23,000 or 18% of the US total Afghan population. More than 6,000 new Afghans also have arrived in the state since 2021, with thousands more expected to arrive in 2024 and beyond, according to Virginia Governor Ralph Northam. WAW and its resettlement partners expect more newly-arrived Afghans to move to the greater DC area after their 90-day resettlement support period ends, to be closer to families and an established Afghan community."

[Anonymous]

I have a follow-up question on this. How can it be that the Coates 5-year projection increased year-over-year by 52%, necessitating the boundary study, but the Carson projection only increased by 3%, and the Westfield projection only increased by 5%? I get that Coates and Carson are split feeders, but the majority of Coates go to Carson and then on to Westfield.

Unless there is some housing development that only allows elementary school kids, those projections seem laughably bad and completely unreliable.