We did this with a 9 month old at 5 or 6 DC daycares. The kid is almost 5 now, and we still haven't heard back from most of the daycares we paid $75-$100 to (and also never got a specific waitlist number from any of them). So your suspicions may be correct.
Only the daycare can tell you when (and how likely) you might clear the waitlist, and frankly if their waitlist is that long, dealing with potential clients probably isn't a high priority for the management, since they can find new students easily whenever there is a vacancy. Also, it may not be a purely first-in-first-out waitlist - in practice, they can (and do) give priority to siblings of current students, to their friends, to families who seem particularly nice/easygoing, etc., or skip over families they have concerns about.
I would talk to more daycares - there are quality daycares out there with immediate openings. The $75 extortion fee, while annoying, is small in the scheme of the $20-30k/yr (or more) you'll be paying in daycare costs, so don't get too worked up over it. If you start somewhere and later get into one that you like better, it's easy to switch.
Also - most of the 50 people ahead of you have probably found other arrangements by now. So it's not really a 50-kid waitlist.
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