IME, not tied to the census. Schools keep track of demographic data and make/remake projections yearly, in order to create long term capital investment plans/schedules. Look at MoCo's 5 year CIP (Capital Infrastructure Plan? I think) available on their website which lays out expected enrollment at each school throughout the county. Decision to redraw boundaries has to do with enrollment expectations in each school and what is possible in terms of additions. Redrawing boundaries is not a first resort usually, as this can really affect communities, and is, at least in MoCo a lengthy process that ultimately goes from the Superintendent to the BoE.
If you are in MoCo, you can look at the CIP and see the numbers for your cluster and surrounding clusters as well as proposed solutions.
It's hard to tell long term about redistricting as a wide range of things can really impact enrollment (economy, baby boom, gentrifying neighborhoods, infrastructure improvements, etc.)
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