Crime Rates

[Anonymous]

In a recent discussion of local issues, someone made the claim that crime rates were "way up" in our area. My knee-jerk was to dismiss this out-of-hand as baseless fear-mongering, but ultimately using my own gut feeling is no better than what I suspect this individual was doing. I tried to find data for our part of Fairfax, but all I could find were annual numbers for the entirety of Fairfax county, e.g.:

https://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/police/sites/police/files/assets/images/helpfulinfo/crime%20in%20our%20county/crime%20statistics/fcpd%202021%20group%20a%20offenses.pdf

Does anyone know of any other sources that might be either more granular, either in terms of time period or the more specific area within Fairfax County (e.g. per Police Station or District)?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:In a recent discussion of local issues, someone made the claim that crime rates were "way up" in our area. My knee-jerk was to dismiss this out-of-hand as baseless fear-mongering, but ultimately using my own gut feeling is no better than what I suspect this individual was doing. I tried to find data for our part of Fairfax, but all I could find were annual numbers for the entirety of Fairfax county, e.g.:

https://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/police/sites/police/files/assets/images/helpfulinfo/crime%20in%20our%20county/crime%20statistics/fcpd%202021%20group%20a%20offenses.pdf

Does anyone know of any other sources that might be either more granular, either in terms of time period or the more specific area within Fairfax County (e.g. per Police Station or District)?

Definitely up in silver spring. Council members were forced to show the numbers after being grilled:

https://bethesdamagazine.com/2023/01/13/residents-call-for-more-policing-say-they-feel-unsafe-during-white-oak-listening-session/

DMV has descended into lawlessness.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:In a recent discussion of local issues, someone made the claim that crime rates were "way up" in our area. My knee-jerk was to dismiss this out-of-hand as baseless fear-mongering, but ultimately using my own gut feeling is no better than what I suspect this individual was doing. I tried to find data for our part of Fairfax, but all I could find were annual numbers for the entirety of Fairfax county, e.g.:

https://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/police/sites/police/files/assets/images/helpfulinfo/crime%20in%20our%20county/crime%20statistics/fcpd%202021%20group%20a%20offenses.pdf

Does anyone know of any other sources that might be either more granular, either in terms of time period or the more specific area within Fairfax County (e.g. per Police Station or District)?

Definitely up in silver spring. Council members were forced to show the numbers after being grilled:

https://bethesdamagazine.com/2023/01/13/residents-call-for-more-policing-say-they-feel-unsafe-during-white-oak-listening-session/

DMV has descended into lawlessness.

I don't know, looking at the available 2011-2021 data for Fairfax County, using individual categories (vs. the larger parent categories of crime against persons, property, or society) and just the raw numbers (not adjusted for population growth):

There have been some increases:
- Extortion is up ~1000% since 2011, but still a fairly rare thing
- Pornography is up ~200% since 2011
- Motor Vehicle Theft up ~40-50% in 2020/21
- Fraud grew 2011-2015 and has stayed flat at that new level since
- Homicides are technically at a high point as of 2021 (with 21 total, matching 2017), but the numbers are so low in this category it's hard to tell signal/noise
- Assault is up very slightly in recent years, but <10%, and basically in line with where it was before

It's mostly decreases:
- Gambling, Arson, Burglary, Vandalism, Stolen Property, and Embezzlement have all pretty steadily declined over 11 years
- Larceny dropped about 10% from 2016 to 2018 and has maintained the lower level
- Prostitution rose 2011-2016, then fell off a cliff (168 in 2016, only 8 in 2021)
- Robbery was slightly up 2015/16, but has steadily dropped since
- Drug Offenses dropped sharply 2020/21, presumably due to change in decriminalization of simple marijuana possession
- Robbery and Counterfeiting had a little spike upwards in roughly 2013-2017 timeframe, but have since dropped to lowest levels in 11 years

A few others aren't meaningfully changed, but the other thing to keep in mind is that the population has grown over this period, so steady-state or even a small increase in total crimes over the time period could still reflect a decrease in the crime rate since the denominator has increased.

In aggregate, over past 10 years:
- Crime rate against persons is down 1.5%
- Crime rate against property is down 17.75%
- Crime rate against society is down 58.25%

There was no notable overall reversion of those trends in 2021. I wonder if 2022 numbers will be available soon and tell us anything different, but it's fair to say there's no evidence to support the claim that the crime rate is significantly up recently, at least in Fairfax County... the only one that seems noteworthy in the upward direction recently IMO is Motor Vehicle Theft.

[Anonymous]

Thanks, PP. rings true that the stats match perspective (your car might get stolen but you won’t get shot in the face).

Virginia criminals have to assume their victims might carry a gun so are more cautious.

[Anonymous]

Crime statistics become skewed when certain charges will no longer be prosecuted by the commonwealth attorney.

[Anonymous]

Violent crime is up 10% in Montgomery County.
Homicides are down.
Robbery including carjacking is up astronomically.

And these stats follow 2021, where violent crime was up again.

It's worse than it was before the pandemic.

What are politicians doing that makes us safer? Show us, measure it, and be accountable.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Violent crime is up 10% in Montgomery County.
Homicides are down.
Robbery including carjacking is up astronomically.

And these stats follow 2021, where violent crime was up again.

It's worse than it was before the pandemic.

What are politicians doing that makes us safer? Show us, measure it, and be accountable.

AND why isn't there more noise about the fact Richard Montgomery students lured Gaithersburg students into the school to rob them? Then got their pants twisted when Gaithersburg students returned to the school with a gun. And why oh why isn't anyone holding the principal accountable for not telling parents until after the story went public?????

[Anonymous]

Crime is up in our area:

Sources: https://www.thecentersquare.com/virginia/virginia-violent-crime-up-cause-is-disputed/article_74329142-5947-11ed-a443-77b075a3a0a7.html

"Virginia State Police crime report from 2020 reveals that reported homicides across the commonwealth increased by 23.4%"
https://www.nbc12.com/2022/04/26/gov-youngkin-most-concerned-about-elevated-crime-rate-virginia/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Thanks, PP. rings true that the stats match perspective (your car might get stolen but you won’t get shot in the face).

Virginia criminals have to assume their victims might carry a gun so are more cautious.

The last carjacking I can remember in Alexandria was on Route 1 near Potomac Yard. The victim ended up shooting and killing one of the perpetrators. That seemed to work wonders in terms of deterring additional carjacking attempts.

[Anonymous]

People trying to argue that crime is down because of less reported larcenies need to get their heads checked.

[Anonymous]

It's pure gaslighting when people say crime is down.

Now what we do about it, I suppose is up for debate/conversation. But I'm tired of elected officials or twitter personalities dismissing the concerns themselves.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It's pure gaslighting when people say crime is down.

Now what we do about it, I suppose is up for debate/conversation. But I'm tired of elected officials or twitter personalities dismissing the concerns themselves.

People without skin in the game or ulterior agendas.