Palin's pull

[Anonymous]

Check out this article, http://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/forums/show/39.page, on the power of a Palin endorsement even where you might not expect it. If today's vote shows this article to be correct, I'll have my eyes on November to see how she affects the entire California electorate.

[jsteele]

I think you put the wrong link in your post.

[Anonymous]

jsteele wrote:I think you put the wrong link in your post.

Right as usual, Jeff, I was juggling two windows. How about this one: http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-06-08/sarah-palins-endorsement-boosts-carly-fiorina-in-california/?cid=hp:mainpromo3

[Anonymous]

I think this quote from the article perfectly summarizes the downside of Palin's pull:

What did Palin do for Fiorina, exactly? Wilson’s explanation is simple: “People were trying to figure out who the conservative was in the race,” he says. The endorsement of Palin provided that clarity.

If Californians in the general election want Palin's expertise in finding the most conservative candidate, she could indeed make a difference.

I also think that it was pure opportunism for Palin to have endorsed Fiorina. Chuck DeVore is much closer to Palin's style than Fiorina is, but he didn't have a prayer. What Palin did was throw her weight behind someone who had a better chance of winning.

[jsteele]

I don't know that I agree with the premise of that article. The "Palin Surge" corresponded to a huge television ad buy from Fiorina. At the same time Campbell ran out of money and had to drop television ads. If voters were waiting until the last minute to make up their minds, it's normal that they would choose the only one advertising.

Regardless, if Fiorina wins, Palin will take credit. That's great for the Democrats. I'm sure Boxer will love running against the "Palin candidate".

[Anonymous]

"I'm sure Boxer will love running against the "Palin candidate". "

yep. Palin's endorsement I would treat as poison - if she likes someone then there clearly must be something wrong with them that perhaps I didn't know at first.

[Anonymous]

jsteele wrote:I don't know that I agree with the premise of that article. The "Palin Surge" corresponded to a huge television ad buy from Fiorina. At the same time Campbell ran out of money and had to drop television ads. If voters were waiting until the last minute to make up their minds, it's normal that they would choose the only one advertising.

Regardless, if Fiorina wins, Palin will take credit. That's great for the Democrats. I'm sure Boxer will love running against the "Palin candidate".

Jeff I agree with you on this one ... but I believe it made a big difference in SC with Nikki Haley.

If I were a blue state Republican I would not want Palin within a mile of me. Red states, totally different dynamic. Palin is polarizing, so she works some places and not others.

[Anonymous]

With someone like Palin trying to build a political reputation, endorsements are a big game. You stick your neck out on a few you really care about, stay away from a bunch you care about but know are doomed, and tag a bunch of calculated bets. So in the end you try to craft this belief that your endorsement carries importance, when a lot of the time it is the endorser and her staff making predictions and then glomming on to what they think are good bets.