Tax Withholding Estimator -- Wildly Different Than Last Year

[Anonymous]

I usually use the IRS's Tax Withholding Estimator a few times throughout the year to determine if I should make adjustments to my W-4. I expect the estimator to be exactly that, i.e., it's not a predictor. To land on my targeted number, I have about $500 extra withheld each paycheck.

Last year, my refund was just over $5,000, which is close to my target. I made no changes to my withholdings in 2021.

This year, I ran the estimator for the first time this week. I have maintained my withholding amount. However, my IRS estimate is a refund of about $25,000.

The household, which includes 2 dependent children, has had some increase in salary since last year but no big changes. My spouse and I file jointly; I am presuming the standard deduction. We do not have meaningful income other than our salaries. Our AGI is $250,000.

While being told I will have a substantial refund is very low on anyone's list of worries, I was curious (1) what tax changes could account for the swing from $5,000 to $25,000; (2) are there any input errors that could be swaying my results (I confirmed that I correctly conveyed the information from our pay stubs).

[Anonymous]

I can't think of any tax laws that would cause that. I'm guessing input error. You probably forgot to include something.