A thread of optimism: why do you think Trump will win in 2020?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Assuming that either of you is being sincere - what would turn you from voting from Clinton to voting for Trump? I am asking this sincerely. To me he is an unmitigated disaster, a wannabe Duterte-type without the smarts to actually be Duterte. What is the appeal to someone who previously didn't fall for his strong man schtick?

(Please don't say illegals or wall.)

Please read this whole thread --- plenty of good arguments that have nothing to do with illegals or the wall.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So to make sure I understand this right: you are blaming Obama for the fact that Trump and his Republicans in the House and Senate failed to take up immigration in any real, substantive way while they held control of the WH and both houses?

No, I am blaming Obama and Dems for the fact that they betrayed immigrants. They promised one thing, and delivered the opposite -- Mr. Deporter-in-Chief broke millions of families and the media gave him a free pass, making the bad worse.

Some other PP blamed both parties (rightly so) for not working hard enough to solve the issue.

While you are trying to not answer the question posted above -- would you support a merit-based system like Canada's?

I am the PP you are responding to. I am a tried and true Democrat. I also once wrote a published white paper about our immigration system being dysfunctional and broken. I would welcome changes that make the system fairer, more manageable, and give people more certain ways to come and stay here. I'm fine with that being skills based if it means we can get rid of this insane system that is currently full of uncertainty and incentivizes lawbreaking. Our current system, as you and I and everyone can see, is broken.

I think there are reasons why this is unlikely to happen. A big one is that we are in horrible times when we can't even really talk about immigration without dividing into our partisan corners. There's zero trust between the sides - and zero incentives for compromise or cooperation. But yes, I would favor a system that was clear, fair, easy, manageable, had standards and rules that could be followed and understood, and that promoted social cohesion and harmony. I'm open to a variety of fixes. Skills based immigration seems like one system that could work.

Now a question for you: Are you pissed that Trump and his Republicans didn't take the opportunity to *actually* get into immigration reform while they had control over every body of government? They didn't even hold hearings, or draft any bills that they could hold up as embodying their ideas. They did nothing.

Thank you very much for the thoughtful response. I couldn't agree more with the bolded (and with most of what you wrote).

Happy to answer your questions, but let me start by saying that I did not vote for Trump in 2016 -- may well do so in 2020, as I generally think the country is in better shape now than in 2016.

I am sad, but not pissed or disappointed, that Trump/ GOP didn't prioritize immigration reform while they had both houses. Why? Because they never promised they would.

On the contrary, I was gladly surprised when Trump proposed a quite sensible plan in 2018 (path to citizenship for close to 3 million in exchange for Wall funding and a move towards a merit-based system), and then pissed and disappointed when Dems refused to even consider it (it was clear that some Republicans would never vote for it, so the vote had to be bipartisan).

DP

Wanted to chime in that I feel the same way as you. Voted for Hillary last time and will likely vote for Trump in 2020.

Thanks for chiming in.

Any particular turning point or reason?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The reality is that the Democrats have no desire to resolve the challenges relating to immigration.

They think it would be politically advantageous to let it fester and use it against the Republicans. If they really wanted to come up with legislation they could have done so in 2009 when they had commanding leads in the Senate and the House as well as the presidency. They did nothing and the Hispanic lobby was very upset at the time that nothing was done.

I ask this sincerely, though I understand it sounds like snark: Do you remember in 2016 when Republicans were in charge of the WH, the House, and the Senate? Why do you think it is that they did not engage in a good faith, substantive effort to overhaul the immigration system then?

I'm not asking you why you don't like Democrats. I am asking why you think Republicans declined the opportunity to take up this effort when they had the ability to do it.

Because that was NOT one of their campaign promises. They promised tax reform....and delivered it. They promised a conservative in the SC...and delivered it.

Obama promised immigration reform in his first year....and he didn't deliver it.

Actually he didn't even move a finger until he had lost both the Senate and the House so it was obvious he couldn't do anything serious and lasting.

Now you're just embarrassing yourself. They ABSOLUTELY ran on immigration. Furthermore, you're being disingenuous when you say Democrats have "no desire to resolve immigration." They have plans and proposals. They are at odds with teh GOP's. But instead of, you know, legislating like used to happen, the Senate is just stonewalling. (Just in general, the House has passed something like 100 bills that the Senate has not touched. I don't call that governing.)

Obama had "both houses" for a fleeting period of time. FAR LESS than what Trump had. And he did nothing but show how inept he was as passing a budget.

So, it's fair to say you don't agree with how the Democrats approach immigration. It's a lie to say they don't care, have no proposals. You just want what you want with no compromise. Just like trump and the Senate. And that's not governing. There are two houses of Congress.

Wow. What a pathetic liar you are. You Democrats have no plan to secure our border, last time I checked.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Assuming that either of you is being sincere - what would turn you from voting from Clinton to voting for Trump? I am asking this sincerely. To me he is an unmitigated disaster, a wannabe Duterte-type without the smarts to actually be Duterte. What is the appeal to someone who previously didn't fall for his strong man schtick?

(Please don't say illegals or wall.)

Please read this whole thread --- plenty of good arguments that have nothing to do with illegals or the wall.

Exactly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
I was talking about this with my husband the other day. Far more people support Trump than anyone knows.

But you know it, right? This is the classical conspiracy theorist lunacy -- "nobody knows something but I do."

Anyway, Trump has gotten too old, fat and ugly to win a second term.

Huh. Kind of like all of the nutty posts claiming to know how America will vote in 2020? They just "know that everybody hates Trump". Amirite?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Assuming that either of you is being sincere - what would turn you from voting from Clinton to voting for Trump? I am asking this sincerely. To me he is an unmitigated disaster, a wannabe Duterte-type without the smarts to actually be Duterte. What is the appeal to someone who previously didn't fall for his strong man schtick?

(Please don't say illegals or wall.)

Please read this whole thread --- plenty of good arguments that have nothing to do with illegals or the wall.

I am specifically asking the PPs who say they did not vote for him in 2016, why they would vote for him this time. The thread is mostly derpy derping. Not genuine conversation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't like making predictions.

Having said that, I HOPE Trump wins. I see nobody that the Dems are running that has policies or a platform worth voting for. I think a good number of voters (including moderate Dems) feel that way as well. People say Joe Biden is moderate, but TBH - he has not really revealed why he is running. What is his platform? What will he do?

The economy is great. I would love for this China deal to get done - It would be a great positive for our country. I don't have great hopes that N Korea will denuclearize, but as long as they stay in check, things will be ok.

And, today, The Hill is running this article........"3 modelers predict Trump reelection: report"

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/445668-3-modelers-predict-trump-reelection

I am skeptical after 2016 because we all know that Hillary was supposed to win, right? But, found the article interesting.

I also believe that Democrats continue to underestimate the support that Trump has. And, I still believe there are lots of people out there who support him, but don't admit it. And, one only has to read some of the comments and thoughts on this forum to understand why.

+ 1,000,000
I was talking about this with my husband the other day. Far more people support Trump than anyone knows. The loudest voices are always the protesting, outraged liberals. That's who we hear from the most. There is a vast number of people who don't feel it necessary to opine at the highest volume, 24/7, about their political views - or at all, for that matter. The quiet and confident observer. I never, ever discuss politics outside of this forum, and I don't know anyone who does. Those who do are usually the people who assume everyone agrees with them and there's no need to speak diplomatically about their views. They're "right," and everyone else is "wrong". Those are the people who woke up in shock on November 9, 2016 - and will again in 2020 if they continue to dismiss and discount the views of millions of Americans.

Yes, this is so true. Democrats are under the false impression that many more people agree with them than actually do. They speak with the greatest derision of Trump voters TO Trump voters, just assuming that everyone thinks the way they do.

I was at a dinner party, hosted by my mother, when one of the guests started railing against the "morons and racists" who voted for Trump. Did it never occur to her that my mother, or I, or any other number of guests may have voted for him? Similarly, I was in a class when a classmate interrupted the lecture to draw a parallel between what the teacher was talking about to rail, once again, against the idiots who voted for Trump. (I took a quick glance around the room, and there were obviously a few people quite annoyed by the comment.)

Democrats are fooling themselves. They are likely in for another shock come November 2020.

+100
I notice this all the time. At our daughter's college graduation, the speaker took it upon himself to make his speech highly partisan, making snotty remarks about Trump and his administration. Talk about an inappropriate setting to spout off on your political views! But he apparently believed that the hundreds of people present *must* agree with him. He was not well-received. Plenty of people were shaking their heads, rolling their eyes, and complaining about how out of touch and inappropriate he was.

I also have friends I get together with regularly who started in on how much they hate Trump the other day, fully expecting me to join in. I just got up from the table and busied myself doing something else for a few minutes - long enough for them to realize how rude they were. When I came back, they were clearly shocked that I didn't feel as they did - surprise! There are millions of us out there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't like making predictions.

Having said that, I HOPE Trump wins. I see nobody that the Dems are running that has policies or a platform worth voting for. I think a good number of voters (including moderate Dems) feel that way as well. People say Joe Biden is moderate, but TBH - he has not really revealed why he is running. What is his platform? What will he do?

The economy is great. I would love for this China deal to get done - It would be a great positive for our country. I don't have great hopes that N Korea will denuclearize, but as long as they stay in check, things will be ok.

And, today, The Hill is running this article........"3 modelers predict Trump reelection: report"

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/445668-3-modelers-predict-trump-reelection

I am skeptical after 2016 because we all know that Hillary was supposed to win, right? But, found the article interesting.

I also believe that Democrats continue to underestimate the support that Trump has. And, I still believe there are lots of people out there who support him, but don't admit it. And, one only has to read some of the comments and thoughts on this forum to understand why.

+ 1,000,000
I was talking about this with my husband the other day. Far more people support Trump than anyone knows. The loudest voices are always the protesting, outraged liberals. That's who we hear from the most. There is a vast number of people who don't feel it necessary to opine at the highest volume, 24/7, about their political views - or at all, for that matter. The quiet and confident observer. I never, ever discuss politics outside of this forum, and I don't know anyone who does. Those who do are usually the people who assume everyone agrees with them and there's no need to speak diplomatically about their views. They're "right," and everyone else is "wrong". Those are the people who woke up in shock on November 9, 2016 - and will again in 2020 if they continue to dismiss and discount the views of millions of Americans.

Couldn't agree more with both PPs.

ANother voter in agreement with the two PPs.

I didn’t vote for Trump the first time and generally vote Democratic. I’m sure most of my friends and neighbors assume that I’m a rabid liberal like them. I do tend to lean liberal, but will be voting for Trump for sure in the next election. I would imagine there are others in a similar situation. People who just keep their mouths shut during the dinner party when someone rants against Trump.

Exactly. I really think the most insecure people are the ones who can't keep their mouths shut and arrogantly assume they speak for everyone else. I ignore them and vote the way I want to vote.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Assuming that either of you is being sincere - what would turn you from voting from Clinton to voting for Trump? I am asking this sincerely. To me he is an unmitigated disaster, a wannabe Duterte-type without the smarts to actually be Duterte. What is the appeal to someone who previously didn't fall for his strong man schtick?

(Please don't say illegals or wall.)

Please read this whole thread --- plenty of good arguments that have nothing to do with illegals or the wall.

I am specifically asking the PPs who say they did not vote for him in 2016, why they would vote for him this time. The thread is mostly derpy derping. Not genuine conversation.

This is one of the most thoughtful and civilized threads I have seen on dcum in a while. Perhaps you have forgotten the feel of "genuine conversation"?

In any case, as one of the posters in question, here's my specific reason. Back in 2016 I had no idea what he would actually do in the WH. Would the economy implode? Would he try to deport 10 million immigrants? Would he start a random war with who knows why? By now, in 2019, we have a pretty good sense that he's more capable than expected (not nicer or smarter, just more capable). The economy is great, lower violent crime rates, pretty sensible immigration and security policies, ISIS destroyed, renegotiating harmful trade deals with Mexico and China.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My step-father was visiting this weekend. He's what I call a "weak" Trump supporter: voted for him because he was sick of the status quo, encouraged everyone to "give Trump a chance" after the Inaugeration, and generally is very uncomfortable when minority Americans talk about "justice."

Now? He's completely opposed to Trump. He finds him to be despicable, both in his personal conduct and lack of respect for the troops on this Memorial Day weekend. He's excited about Biden, but admits he will likely vote for anyone the Democrats nominate.

I'd say that's the general sentiment among much of the independent white Boomer electorate.

Maybe among the wealthy class, but certainly not among those still working hard and building their 401k...

This criticism is a total non-sequitur. The fact of the matter is that a lot of people who tepidly supported Trump in 2016 are majorly turned off by him this time around. You haven't really provided any thoughtful nuance to the discussion and really just polluted this thread with a baseless claim ("They're all rich!")

Whatevs. Keep your head in the sand.

DP. I "tepidly supported Trump in 2016" and will vote for him again. Is he an ideal president? Hell no. But in his artless way, he has taken seriously the issues that are important to so many of us.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Assuming that either of you is being sincere - what would turn you from voting from Clinton to voting for Trump? I am asking this sincerely. To me he is an unmitigated disaster, a wannabe Duterte-type without the smarts to actually be Duterte. What is the appeal to someone who previously didn't fall for his strong man schtick?

(Please don't say illegals or wall.)

Please read this whole thread --- plenty of good arguments that have nothing to do with illegals or the wall.

I am specifically asking the PPs who say they did not vote for him in 2016, why they would vote for him this time. The thread is mostly derpy derping. Not genuine conversation.

This is one of the most thoughtful and civilized threads I have seen on dcum in a while. Perhaps you have forgotten the feel of "genuine conversation"?

In any case, as one of the posters in question, here's my specific reason. Back in 2016 I had no idea what he would actually do in the WH. Would the economy implode? Would he try to deport 10 million immigrants? Would he start a random war with who knows why? By now, in 2019, we have a pretty good sense that he's more capable than expected (not nicer or smarter, just more capable). The economy is great, lower violent crime rates, pretty sensible immigration and security policies, ISIS destroyed, renegotiating harmful trade deals with Mexico and China.

Hm. Well you are mostly repeating just Republican/WH talking points that have little basis in reality. So. Oh well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My step-father was visiting this weekend. He's what I call a "weak" Trump supporter: voted for him because he was sick of the status quo, encouraged everyone to "give Trump a chance" after the Inaugeration, and generally is very uncomfortable when minority Americans talk about "justice."

Now? He's completely opposed to Trump. He finds him to be despicable, both in his personal conduct and lack of respect for the troops on this Memorial Day weekend. He's excited about Biden, but admits he will likely vote for anyone the Democrats nominate.

I'd say that's the general sentiment among much of the independent white Boomer electorate.

Maybe among the wealthy class, but certainly not among those still working hard and building their 401k...

This criticism is a total non-sequitur. The fact of the matter is that a lot of people who tepidly supported Trump in 2016 are majorly turned off by him this time around. You haven't really provided any thoughtful nuance to the discussion and really just polluted this thread with a baseless claim ("They're all rich!")

Whatevs. Keep your head in the sand.

Yea, maybe there is "a lot" of those people. I am not sure that real actual polling data shows that. I was a tepid supporter of Trump in 2016, but my support for him has grown stronger in the past couple of year. I'm optimistic that there are more people like me who will help reelect Trump for a second term.

I hope you don't mind my asking this - but where are you originally from? And does you being from another country influence your support of Trump, do you think?

Not the PP, but wth kind of question is this? Do you think only people from "another country" could possibly support Trump? What on earth makes you think PP isn't an American?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Assuming that either of you is being sincere - what would turn you from voting from Clinton to voting for Trump? I am asking this sincerely. To me he is an unmitigated disaster, a wannabe Duterte-type without the smarts to actually be Duterte. What is the appeal to someone who previously didn't fall for his strong man schtick?

(Please don't say illegals or wall.)

Please read this whole thread --- plenty of good arguments that have nothing to do with illegals or the wall.

I am specifically asking the PPs who say they did not vote for him in 2016, why they would vote for him this time. The thread is mostly derpy derping. Not genuine conversation.

This is one of the most thoughtful and civilized threads I have seen on dcum in a while. Perhaps you have forgotten the feel of "genuine conversation"?

In any case, as one of the posters in question, here's my specific reason. Back in 2016 I had no idea what he would actually do in the WH. Would the economy implode? Would he try to deport 10 million immigrants? Would he start a random war with who knows why? By now, in 2019, we have a pretty good sense that he's more capable than expected (not nicer or smarter, just more capable). The economy is great, lower violent crime rates, pretty sensible immigration and security policies, ISIS destroyed, renegotiating harmful trade deals with Mexico and China.

Hm. Well you are mostly repeating just Republican/WH talking points that have little basis in reality. So. Oh well.

Every single thing I listed is fact-based. If you live in an information bubble that prevents you from accessing or processing facts....best luck in life.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Assuming that either of you is being sincere - what would turn you from voting from Clinton to voting for Trump? I am asking this sincerely. To me he is an unmitigated disaster, a wannabe Duterte-type without the smarts to actually be Duterte. What is the appeal to someone who previously didn't fall for his strong man schtick?

(Please don't say illegals or wall.)

Please read this whole thread --- plenty of good arguments that have nothing to do with illegals or the wall.

I am specifically asking the PPs who say they did not vote for him in 2016, why they would vote for him this time. The thread is mostly derpy derping. Not genuine conversation.

This is one of the most thoughtful and civilized threads I have seen on dcum in a while. Perhaps you have forgotten the feel of "genuine conversation"?

In any case, as one of the posters in question, here's my specific reason. Back in 2016 I had no idea what he would actually do in the WH. Would the economy implode? Would he try to deport 10 million immigrants? Would he start a random war with who knows why? By now, in 2019, we have a pretty good sense that he's more capable than expected (not nicer or smarter, just more capable). The economy is great, lower violent crime rates, pretty sensible immigration and security policies, ISIS destroyed, renegotiating harmful trade deals with Mexico and China.

Hm. Well you are mostly repeating just Republican/WH talking points that have little basis in reality. So. Oh well.

Every single thing I listed is fact-based. If you live in an information bubble that prevents you from accessing or processing facts....best luck in life.

I guess I will just drop out of this thread then. Too bad. It was actually interesting for a bit there. Good luck.

[Anonymous]

I told someone that Trump has terrible optics but produces results. Obama had great optics but was mostly ineffectual.

I don't like Trump but I'll choose results over optics any time.