The only covid metric that matters...

[Anonymous]

To shield against ravenous accusation of being a crazy MAGA anti-science type, here are my deep blue credentials: lifelong democrat, north arlington resident, PhD in quantitative science, etc. etc.

And now truth about covid today: it is less of a risk, according to official and reliable government data, than many typical daily activities we engage in without fear. Per a recent NYT article:

"Once you get a booster, your risk of getting severely ill from Covid is tiny. It is quite small even if you are older or have health problems. The average weekly chance that a boosted person died of Covid was about one in a million during October and November (the most recent available C.D.C. data). That risk is not zero, but it is not far from it. The chance that an average American will die in a car crash this week is significantly higher — about 2.4 per million. So is the average weekly death rate from influenza and pneumonia — about three per million. With a booster shot, Covid resembles other respiratory illnesses that have been around for years. "

The Biden administration is blowing the messaging and losing the narrative. The only - and I mean only - number that matters is a numerator over a denominator that defines your likelihood of dying from covid. And if you're fully boosted, that number is now virtually 0.

Everything else is noise...mask quality, ventilation, social distancing, etc etc. It mattered early on, but not anymore. Cases don't matter, except as they might 'overwhelm' hospitals...though we cannot live under that threat forever.

Every credible expert outside of the administration is calling for rapid reduction of restrictions, starting with masks. I truly hope Biden's experts get control of the narrative - the economy is booming and the vaccines work, but no one feels better because we are still being told to hunker down. It's bad politics, and inconsistent with the science and facts on the ground.

And yes, it is why Youngkin won - democrats never offered an off ramp. Mask forever, school shutdowns no big deal, and so on. Should we rip the masks off kids now while omicron is still a threat? No. But where was/is the offramp metrics from Duran? APS? Arlington County? Democratic controlled Richmond?

Scream at me if you want, but remember: lifelong democrat, north Arlingtonian, quant PhD, believer in science.

[Anonymous]

It’s strange that you think your opinion warrants an entirely new thread on a topic that is widely discussed in other threads.

[Anonymous]

Umm. Thanks? Not every thought needs to be blasted out.

[Anonymous]

It's strange you feel this is the most useful reply you can offer...

It is discussed, yes, but no one cites the actual IFR or CFR figure, which is now 1 in 1 million, far less than driving, or the flu, and so on.

I'm frustrated. As a democrat and scientist, I'm frustrated we are running from our own good fortune, which is the miracle of these covid vaccines. The White House everyday should, essentially, be telling vaccinated Americans, if you still fear covid, then you should similarly stop driving. Pound this statistic in our public consciousness and change the narrative. Or face oblivion by opportunistic republicans.

[Anonymous]

I agree that it's weird that, outside of medical professionals (and most of those seem to be in the EU and UK) I rarely see case fatality rate, infection fatality rate, case hospitalization rate, or infection hospitalization rate discussed.

Financial Times over in Britain has graphs of these numbers sometimes.

[Anonymous]

I agree, focus on # of cases is completely wrong for the situation we are dealing with.

[Anonymous]

I agree with you. But CNN did cite the 1 in a million number this week, so it's getting out there.

It's time to drop all the restrictions especially in highly vaccinated areas like the DMV.

[Anonymous]

On top of that, Arlington is constantly being touted as one of the healthiest communities in the U.S., making our risks from covid even lower. You wouldn't know it if you listened to Duran.

[Anonymous]

That's right. I'm just having a hard time understanding the irrational decision making. For example, I'm a federal employee, and I'm sitting here masked up at my desk. Our agency is 99% vaccinated, and I suspect most other federal agencies are similarly vaccinated due to the federal mandate (which I know is being challenged).

So if vaccines greatly reduce transmission, and if they more importantly eliminate my risk of death, and if I'm in a setting where everyone else is vaccinated, why must we still be wearing masks? This is by definition illogical.

[Anonymous]

It's the "I wanna keep working from home" lobbying group, which ironically has a huge overlap with "kids need to stay in school" group.

(I'm in both! haha)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I agree with you. But CNN did cite the 1 in a million number this week, so it's getting out there.

It's time to drop all the restrictions especially in highly vaccinated areas like the DMV.

But.. But... But, think of all the teachers you will be killing you heartless Trumper!

[Anonymous]

Big time Democrat here. Totally agree with you, OP.

One caveat -- we need a big investment in health care workers and facilities, because as long as we have these idiots refusing to get vaccinated, someone will need to take care of them in the hospital as our society collectively pays a shit-ton of money to try to keep them alive.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Big time Democrat here. Totally agree with you, OP.

One caveat -- we need a big investment in health care workers and facilities, because as long as we have these idiots refusing to get vaccinated, someone will need to take care of them in the hospital as our society collectively pays a shit-ton of money to try to keep them alive.

Tell the MBAs to un-lean the hospitals. It's our focus on lean everything with no margin that causes a problem. I imagine you'd need the government requiring some (expensive) excess capacity to make that happen.

That said, even in places where there is universal single-payer healthcare a lot of governments imposed restrictions "to save the state run health system." I'm not sure even those places really have extra capacity or want to add it.

[Anonymous]

You are playing right into Youngkin’s plan to end mask-mandates, which proves to me:

- you and several responders are MAGA-idiot trolls.

Science is REAL, and so is Covid!

You MAGA-idiots are the ones resisting common-sense mask mandates.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:You are playing right into Youngkin’s plan to end mask-mandates, which proves to me:

- you and several responders are MAGA-idiot trolls.

Science is REAL, and so is Covid!

You MAGA-idiots are the ones resisting common-sense mask mandates.

NP. Not a "MAGA-idiot".

Oh how I wish that the DMV area would remove it's head from it's you know what and have a massive reality check to the tune of what OP is saying.

Our vaccination rate is so incredibly high. Our kids have already suffered so incredibly much.

TIME TO IDENTIFY THE OFF RAMPS AND PLAN TOWARDS THEM.