APS Overcrowding Solved — Thanks Pandemic

[Anonymous]

Several threads have talked about declining enrollment and how it seems to be sticking. I think overcrowding at high school level will now no longer be an issue as families no longer look to move to sense Arlington because with WFH they can get a bigger place in FFX and just do commute once or so a week.

And the existing over crowding has been squashed by a flight of people to private school and moving to real burbs.

So school board played chicken with the student wave, and they won thanks to COVID. Am I missing anything?

[Anonymous]

I really can’t be sure. But I do wonder if deep down the school board and superintendent were thinking, “hey, if we make this situation really bad, people will leave and that solves our overcrowding problem.”

[Anonymous]

It’s too early to tell. Families may have stretched for private or homeschool this year but that doesn’t mean it’s sustainable or desirable long term.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I really can’t be sure. But I do wonder if deep down the school board and superintendent were thinking, “hey, if we make this situation really bad, people will leave and that solves our overcrowding problem.”

Oh that was DEFINITELY the plan all along. But pushing people to private is tough at those price points but a year off from school clinched it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It’s too early to tell. Families may have stretched for private or homeschool this year but that doesn’t mean it’s sustainable or desirable long term.

Almost no one is home schooling now. People in private are seeing how amazing it is, they won’t go back. I think this is baked in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s too early to tell. Families may have stretched for private or homeschool this year but that doesn’t mean it’s sustainable or desirable long term.

Almost no one is home schooling now. People in private are seeing how amazing it is, they won’t go back. I think this is baked in.

Not everyone can afford it long term. There’s a difference between finding the money for a year so you don’t lose your job and paying for 5-10 years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Several threads have talked about declining enrollment and how it seems to be sticking. I think overcrowding at high school level will now no longer be an issue as families no longer look to move to sense Arlington because with WFH they can get a bigger place in FFX and just do commute once or so a week.

And the existing over crowding has been squashed by a flight of people to private school and moving to real burbs.

So school board played chicken with the student wave, and they won thanks to COVID. Am I missing anything?

We are on the tail-end of a pandemic. Why TF do you think it's "sticking"?

[Anonymous]

Too soon to tell.

Some will come back. Unfortunately.

Everyone I know with an older kid who went private had a difficult to serve kid. people who were on the bubble about affording it but now the rubber hit the road and the kid really sunk in the pandemic and they left. In most cases I don’t think those kind of kids come back.

Families who started a kid in K or 1 in private? I bet some come back.

[Anonymous]

We have one in middle and two in ES in APS. We didn’t move them but after seeing more of APS are planning on private for HS. I do think some will come back from private but others will leave once jobs and telework post pandemic sort themselves out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Too soon to tell.

Some will come back. Unfortunately.

Everyone I know with an older kid who went private had a difficult to serve kid. people who were on the bubble about affording it but now the rubber hit the road and the kid really sunk in the pandemic and they left. In most cases I don’t think those kind of kids come back.

Families who started a kid in K or 1 in private? I bet some come back.

This. People at the ES level may come back. 12 years is a long time in private if you weren’t planning for it. MS and HS kids probably aren’t coming back.

So yes, overcrowding may be fixed for a few years. Which will lead APS to say “problem solved” and do nothing. Then the huge now ES classes will still be dealing with overcrowded HS.

[Anonymous]

I left APS b/c we were systematically pushed out by APS not serving learning disabilities. It worked. I now have a happy kid who wants to go to school and is learning far more than they ever have.

So yeah, we are staying in private. I have another child without LDs who is in elementary right now and a good one but I'm pretty sure we'll go private in 6th for that one too. Different private but private.

[Anonymous]

I know a number of families in private this year because they didn't know if APS would really go 5x/week...who plan to come back next year. I think there will be lots of returns during 6th and 9th grades over the next few years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I really can’t be sure. But I do wonder if deep down the school board and superintendent were thinking, “hey, if we make this situation really bad, people will leave and that solves our overcrowding problem.”

I've had this exact same thought since September 2020 when they reverted to fully remote

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Several threads have talked about declining enrollment and how it seems to be sticking. I think overcrowding at high school level will now no longer be an issue as families no longer look to move to sense Arlington because with WFH they can get a bigger place in FFX and just do commute once or so a week.

And the existing over crowding has been squashed by a flight of people to private school and moving to real burbs.

So school board played chicken with the student wave, and they won thanks to COVID. Am I missing anything?

Maybe but I have met three families that have moved from DC to Arlington in the past year (and I'm not particularly social) I think it's still attractive to people who want more space but don't want to be far out.

[Anonymous]

FCPS is doing a MUCH better job in early elementary than APS- also they offer more electives in high school because they are bigger and can. APS has decided to go with a "blended learning model" in early elementary which means kids are on iPads a ton just when they should be reconnecting with peers in real life, not virtually. FCPS has stuck with real life teaching and not gone to the iPad model so it is now winning in the early grades as well as high school. For years, I wanted to live in Arlington for the schools, I am now so grateful that we live in Fairfax so my kids aren't relegated to 30+ minutes of iPad time a time and are receiving instruction and group work with real live people.