Early release Monday?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm an MCPS teacher and I'm keeping my kids home from school tomorrow.

Are you taking the day off. Now I’m wondering if half the kids won’t show up

No..I don't have enough leave and would never be able to find a sub (and I don't feel like writing sub plans). So I will be at work. My kids will stay with their grandparents (they live 5 min from us, their school, and the school I work at)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:[MCPS] MCPS is monitoring the potential for a strong storm on Monday, (3/16) and will announce any updates concerning operations, including any cancellations of activities or an early dismissal on Monday morning.

What's the "safest route" home for walkers, an imaginary underground tunnel??!! Huh?!

They are so ridiculously incompetent. Their suggestion of having walkers identify safe places along their route home to shelter if weather conditions worsen was absolutely comical. They won't make the right call. Which is why I'm keeping my kids home.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I can’t believe how uninformed and glib the parents are here. Look at what happened in the Midwest. This is a derecho. There will be no ability to get your kids after it passes because the streets will be closed. Obviously, schools must at least close early and the office doesn’t need parents randomly getting kids.

Don’t derechos form suddenly? There a June 29 2012 derecho certainly wasn’t anticipated. It was also at 10pm after a 105 degree day. Not sure how that could be similar to tomorrow?

The 2012 storm was anticipated to be extremely severe. The environment was ripe for storms. While the derecho itself wasn't predicted, the true weather forecasters warned well in advance that conditions would be dangerous.

Not true at all. Thunderstorms were expected but not what happened at all.

This is not accurate at all. There were warnings for the potential for highly hazardous weather the days leading up the events in 2012. The derecho itself was not necessarily predicted.

No THERE WERE NOT. A monumental event happened in my life on that day and as a result I remember it extremely clearly. The storms were not expected to impact the DC area significantly at all. It took everyone by surprise. It was fast moving, intense and over in minutes. You can look it up - there is plenty of coverage that explains this, both from in 2012 and in retrospect as anniversary articles are common too.

Guess what? Same here. And I knew to make sure we were off the roads, at home, prepared for the potential for power outages from intense storms. There are a ton of resources and a ton of storm watchers online. Again, while the derecho itself was not predicted, the environment was ripe for storms. There were warnings conditions would be dangerous. Were these people posting on Facebook? Probably not. Just because you were not specifically warned, it does not mean that that others were not greatly concerned. NOAA SPC thought the storms would weaken over the Appalachians. Not everyone believed that would happen due to the environmental conditions and the CAPE values.

For the storm threat tomorrow, I seriously hope that decisions are not made by the posters who think soccer only needs to move indoors or kids are safer at school while not being concerned at all about conditions after storms have moved through the area.

Hm, well Chat-GPT has it correct for once:

The June 29, 2012 Mid-Atlantic derecho was not widely predicted in advance at the scale or intensity it ultimately reached. Meteorologists recognized severe thunderstorms were possible that day, but the emergence of a long-lived, extremely destructive derecho sweeping into the Washington, D.C. region took both forecasters and the public largely by surprise until only hours beforehand.
Below is a more precise breakdown of what was and wasn’t anticipated.

1. More than a day in advance: little indication of a historic event

Forecast models and outlooks the day before and early on June 29 did not clearly signal a major derecho heading toward the Mid-Atlantic.

Operational forecast models such as the NAM and GFS gave little guidance more than ~24 hours ahead that a long-lived severe windstorm would occur.

On the morning of June 29, the main story in the Washington area was expected to be extreme heat, not a destructive storm system.

Forecast discussions expected scattered thunderstorms later in the day, but there was no obvious large-scale weather feature (like a strong cold front) that would normally signal a widespread severe event.
As a result, the storm was not anticipated as a major regional wind disaster a day or more beforehand.

2. Same day (morning to early afternoon): hints begin to appear

On the morning of June 29, some high-resolution convection-allowing models started suggesting that a strong thunderstorm complex could form and track east.

However:

These signals appeared only hours before the event developed.
Derechos are notoriously hard to forecast because they often form from small-scale atmospheric disturbances that models struggle to resolve far in advance.
So forecasters had increasing concern, but the eventual scale and longevity were still uncertain.

3. Afternoon and evening: warnings as the storm approached
Once the storm complex formed in the Midwest and began producing damaging winds, meteorologists tracked it and warnings were issued with good lead time:
The Storm Prediction Center issued severe thunderstorm watches a few hours in advance of the derecho reaching new areas.
Local National Weather Service offices issued numerous severe thunderstorm warnings, with average lead times around 30–37 minutes ahead of the worst winds.
So while long-range prediction was poor, short-term warning performance during the event was considered good.

4. Why it was hard to predict
Several meteorological factors contributed to the forecasting difficulty:
The event was a warm-season derecho, which often forms from subtle atmospheric triggers.
The storm was fueled by extreme heat and humidity (Washington reached 104°F that day), creating enormous atmospheric instability.
The system rapidly organized and maintained strength for about 700 miles in ~12 hours, which is unusual and difficult to anticipate.

✅ Overall assessment (from meteorological reviews):
Long-range forecast (24+ hours): Poor — the magnitude and reach were not predicted.
Same-day outlooks: Increasing concern but still uncertain.
Short-term warnings (within hours): Good — people received warnings shortly before the storm arrived.
A common summary from the post-storm analysis was that the event was “poorly forecast in advance, but warnings were excellent once it developed.”

✔️ Bottom line:
The population and many meteorologists were surprised by the intensity and regional impact, though operational warnings did give people tens of minutes of notice once the storm line was approaching.

[Anonymous]

Honestly I would prefer them to close. I don't want to be caught in the middle of a storm trying to rush from work to get my kids.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I just saw a weather post that showed two rounds of storms. One between 10:00-3:00, the other (stronger) round between 3:00-7:00. Both are capable of producing heavy rain, strong wind, hail, and tornadoes. While I was initially thinking that an early dismissal should be given, now I’m wondering if a full day off wouldn’t make more sense. This is a unprecedented storm and, if it’s anything like the derecho from years ago, there will be trees down in roads and houses, downed power lines, and massive power outages. At this point, it doesn’t sound like an “if it will happen” storm but rather a “when it happens” storm.

In MCPS, PEP kids are out mid-day, school staff in split positions are out, student drivers will be out of the road, as well as walkers. Buses have no business being out in high winds and run the risk of having to stop at other schools to release kids into sturdier buildings. Plus, all staff need to be able to get home and make sure their own families are safe. Bus drivers are usually the last to finish so the higher-ups need to consider their safety.

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Not trying to fear monger or overblow the odds of a freak incident but we just had a Frederick man die on Thursday because a tree fell on his car while driving on the GW parkway. That was not a day with 50-75 mph winds. I would hate to see what the DCUM threads would look like if a a tree fell on a school bus and hurt/killed a bunch of 10 year olds.

I did see that! I can definitely see your point. I'm concerned with the busses and wind speeds on highways and the crazy drivers around here.

[Anonymous]

Early dismissal would make the most sense.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Its crazy to talk about this a whole day beforehand
School will be on time as far as release time
If its high winds and storms they may cancel after school activities.

My kid has soccer practice at her MS, I can see that moving indoors

This storm will impact elementary school dismissal, particularly those where busses don’t arrive at school until 4:15 or 4:30. These busses continue to run routes until after 5:00.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Its crazy to talk about this a whole day beforehand
School will be on time as far as release time
If its high winds and storms they may cancel after school activities.

My kid has soccer practice at her MS, I can see that moving indoors

This storm will impact elementary school dismissal, particularly those where busses don’t arrive at school until 4:15 or 4:30. These busses continue to run routes until after 5:00.

I think MCPS will do an Early dismissal so all kids be home before 2pm.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Its crazy to talk about this a whole day beforehand
School will be on time as far as release time
If its high winds and storms they may cancel after school activities.

My kid has soccer practice at her MS, I can see that moving indoors

This storm will impact elementary school dismissal, particularly those where busses don’t arrive at school until 4:15 or 4:30. These busses continue to run routes until after 5:00.

I think MCPS will do an Early dismissal so all kids be home before 2pm.

That would be prudent.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I can’t believe how uninformed and glib the parents are here. Look at what happened in the Midwest. This is a derecho. There will be no ability to get your kids after it passes because the streets will be closed. Obviously, schools must at least close early and the office doesn’t need parents randomly getting kids.

Don’t derechos form suddenly? There a June 29 2012 derecho certainly wasn’t anticipated. It was also at 10pm after a 105 degree day. Not sure how that could be similar to tomorrow?

The 2012 storm was anticipated to be extremely severe. The environment was ripe for storms. While the derecho itself wasn't predicted, the true weather forecasters warned well in advance that conditions would be dangerous.

Not true at all. Thunderstorms were expected but not what happened at all.

This is not accurate at all. There were warnings for the potential for highly hazardous weather the days leading up the events in 2012. The derecho itself was not necessarily predicted.

No THERE WERE NOT. A monumental event happened in my life on that day and as a result I remember it extremely clearly. The storms were not expected to impact the DC area significantly at all. It took everyone by surprise. It was fast moving, intense and over in minutes. You can look it up - there is plenty of coverage that explains this, both from in 2012 and in retrospect as anniversary articles are common too.

Guess what? Same here. And I knew to make sure we were off the roads, at home, prepared for the potential for power outages from intense storms. There are a ton of resources and a ton of storm watchers online. Again, while the derecho itself was not predicted, the environment was ripe for storms. There were warnings conditions would be dangerous. Were these people posting on Facebook? Probably not. Just because you were not specifically warned, it does not mean that that others were not greatly concerned. NOAA SPC thought the storms would weaken over the Appalachians. Not everyone believed that would happen due to the environmental conditions and the CAPE values.

For the storm threat tomorrow, I seriously hope that decisions are not made by the posters who think soccer only needs to move indoors or kids are safer at school while not being concerned at all about conditions after storms have moved through the area.

Hm, well Chat-GPT has it correct for once:

The June 29, 2012 Mid-Atlantic derecho was not widely predicted in advance at the scale or intensity it ultimately reached. Meteorologists recognized severe thunderstorms were possible that day, but the emergence of a long-lived, extremely destructive derecho sweeping into the Washington, D.C. region took both forecasters and the public largely by surprise until only hours beforehand.
Below is a more precise breakdown of what was and wasn’t anticipated.

1. More than a day in advance: little indication of a historic event

Forecast models and outlooks the day before and early on June 29 did not clearly signal a major derecho heading toward the Mid-Atlantic.

Operational forecast models such as the NAM and GFS gave little guidance more than ~24 hours ahead that a long-lived severe windstorm would occur.

On the morning of June 29, the main story in the Washington area was expected to be extreme heat, not a destructive storm system.

Forecast discussions expected scattered thunderstorms later in the day, but there was no obvious large-scale weather feature (like a strong cold front) that would normally signal a widespread severe event.
As a result, the storm was not anticipated as a major regional wind disaster a day or more beforehand.

2. Same day (morning to early afternoon): hints begin to appear

On the morning of June 29, some high-resolution convection-allowing models started suggesting that a strong thunderstorm complex could form and track east.

However:

These signals appeared only hours before the event developed.
Derechos are notoriously hard to forecast because they often form from small-scale atmospheric disturbances that models struggle to resolve far in advance.
So forecasters had increasing concern, but the eventual scale and longevity were still uncertain.

3. Afternoon and evening: warnings as the storm approached
Once the storm complex formed in the Midwest and began producing damaging winds, meteorologists tracked it and warnings were issued with good lead time:
The Storm Prediction Center issued severe thunderstorm watches a few hours in advance of the derecho reaching new areas.
Local National Weather Service offices issued numerous severe thunderstorm warnings, with average lead times around 30–37 minutes ahead of the worst winds.
So while long-range prediction was poor, short-term warning performance during the event was considered good.

4. Why it was hard to predict
Several meteorological factors contributed to the forecasting difficulty:
The event was a warm-season derecho, which often forms from subtle atmospheric triggers.
The storm was fueled by extreme heat and humidity (Washington reached 104°F that day), creating enormous atmospheric instability.
The system rapidly organized and maintained strength for about 700 miles in ~12 hours, which is unusual and difficult to anticipate.

✅ Overall assessment (from meteorological reviews):
Long-range forecast (24+ hours): Poor — the magnitude and reach were not predicted.
Same-day outlooks: Increasing concern but still uncertain.
Short-term warnings (within hours): Good — people received warnings shortly before the storm arrived.
A common summary from the post-storm analysis was that the event was “poorly forecast in advance, but warnings were excellent once it developed.”

✔️ Bottom line:
The population and many meteorologists were surprised by the intensity and regional impact, though operational warnings did give people tens of minutes of notice once the storm line was approaching.

You literally posted support that the derecho was not predicted, which was already stated. If you want to win that your "experience was more dramatic/memorable," then fine, you win. Guess you also think there are no warnings for many of the "surprise" winter storms over the last 15 years or so. There are so many people that study in-depth meteorology. They post online. They warn often before our government does. Since they do not rely on meteorology for their livelihood, they also do not default to NOAA for warnings as a safety net to cover their careers. Believe or not, AI results do not change the scenario just because you experienced it differently.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Its crazy to talk about this a whole day beforehand
School will be on time as far as release time
If its high winds and storms they may cancel after school activities.

My kid has soccer practice at her MS, I can see that moving indoors

This storm will impact elementary school dismissal, particularly those where busses don’t arrive at school until 4:15 or 4:30. These busses continue to run routes until after 5:00.

I think MCPS will do an Early dismissal so all kids be home before 2pm.

Does a standard early dismissal get all students home before 2?

[Anonymous]

This is an area that I wish the state would make the decision. For events related to hurricanes, tornadoes, derechos and the like, the state should make the call as they are the ones who will have to deal with the aftermath of it all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Its crazy to talk about this a whole day beforehand
School will be on time as far as release time
If its high winds and storms they may cancel after school activities.

My kid has soccer practice at her MS, I can see that moving indoors

This storm will impact elementary school dismissal, particularly those where busses don’t arrive at school until 4:15 or 4:30. These busses continue to run routes until after 5:00.

I think MCPS will do an Early dismissal so all kids be home before 2pm.

Does a standard early dismissal get all students home before 2?

The last dismissal is late elementary schools at 1:20. I imagine that gets most children home by 2 but certainly not guaranteed for all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I can’t believe how uninformed and glib the parents are here. Look at what happened in the Midwest. This is a derecho. There will be no ability to get your kids after it passes because the streets will be closed. Obviously, schools must at least close early and the office doesn’t need parents randomly getting kids.

Don’t derechos form suddenly? There a June 29 2012 derecho certainly wasn’t anticipated. It was also at 10pm after a 105 degree day. Not sure how that could be similar to tomorrow?

The 2012 storm was anticipated to be extremely severe. The environment was ripe for storms. While the derecho itself wasn't predicted, the true weather forecasters warned well in advance that conditions would be dangerous.

Not true at all. Thunderstorms were expected but not what happened at all.

This is not accurate at all. There were warnings for the potential for highly hazardous weather the days leading up the events in 2012. The derecho itself was not necessarily predicted.

No THERE WERE NOT. A monumental event happened in my life on that day and as a result I remember it extremely clearly. The storms were not expected to impact the DC area significantly at all. It took everyone by surprise. It was fast moving, intense and over in minutes. You can look it up - there is plenty of coverage that explains this, both from in 2012 and in retrospect as anniversary articles are common too.

Guess what? Same here. And I knew to make sure we were off the roads, at home, prepared for the potential for power outages from intense storms. There are a ton of resources and a ton of storm watchers online. Again, while the derecho itself was not predicted, the environment was ripe for storms. There were warnings conditions would be dangerous. Were these people posting on Facebook? Probably not. Just because you were not specifically warned, it does not mean that that others were not greatly concerned. NOAA SPC thought the storms would weaken over the Appalachians. Not everyone believed that would happen due to the environmental conditions and the CAPE values.

For the storm threat tomorrow, I seriously hope that decisions are not made by the posters who think soccer only needs to move indoors or kids are safer at school while not being concerned at all about conditions after storms have moved through the area.

Hm, well Chat-GPT has it correct for once:

The June 29, 2012 Mid-Atlantic derecho was not widely predicted in advance at the scale or intensity it ultimately reached. Meteorologists recognized severe thunderstorms were possible that day, but the emergence of a long-lived, extremely destructive derecho sweeping into the Washington, D.C. region took both forecasters and the public largely by surprise until only hours beforehand.
Below is a more precise breakdown of what was and wasn’t anticipated.

1. More than a day in advance: little indication of a historic event

Forecast models and outlooks the day before and early on June 29 did not clearly signal a major derecho heading toward the Mid-Atlantic.

Operational forecast models such as the NAM and GFS gave little guidance more than ~24 hours ahead that a long-lived severe windstorm would occur.

On the morning of June 29, the main story in the Washington area was expected to be extreme heat, not a destructive storm system.

Forecast discussions expected scattered thunderstorms later in the day, but there was no obvious large-scale weather feature (like a strong cold front) that would normally signal a widespread severe event.
As a result, the storm was not anticipated as a major regional wind disaster a day or more beforehand.

2. Same day (morning to early afternoon): hints begin to appear

On the morning of June 29, some high-resolution convection-allowing models started suggesting that a strong thunderstorm complex could form and track east.

However:

These signals appeared only hours before the event developed.
Derechos are notoriously hard to forecast because they often form from small-scale atmospheric disturbances that models struggle to resolve far in advance.
So forecasters had increasing concern, but the eventual scale and longevity were still uncertain.

3. Afternoon and evening: warnings as the storm approached
Once the storm complex formed in the Midwest and began producing damaging winds, meteorologists tracked it and warnings were issued with good lead time:
The Storm Prediction Center issued severe thunderstorm watches a few hours in advance of the derecho reaching new areas.
Local National Weather Service offices issued numerous severe thunderstorm warnings, with average lead times around 30–37 minutes ahead of the worst winds.
So while long-range prediction was poor, short-term warning performance during the event was considered good.

4. Why it was hard to predict
Several meteorological factors contributed to the forecasting difficulty:
The event was a warm-season derecho, which often forms from subtle atmospheric triggers.
The storm was fueled by extreme heat and humidity (Washington reached 104°F that day), creating enormous atmospheric instability.
The system rapidly organized and maintained strength for about 700 miles in ~12 hours, which is unusual and difficult to anticipate.

✅ Overall assessment (from meteorological reviews):
Long-range forecast (24+ hours): Poor — the magnitude and reach were not predicted.
Same-day outlooks: Increasing concern but still uncertain.
Short-term warnings (within hours): Good — people received warnings shortly before the storm arrived.
A common summary from the post-storm analysis was that the event was “poorly forecast in advance, but warnings were excellent once it developed.”

✔️ Bottom line:
The population and many meteorologists were surprised by the intensity and regional impact, though operational warnings did give people tens of minutes of notice once the storm line was approaching.

You literally posted support that the derecho was not predicted, which was already stated. If you want to win that your "experience was more dramatic/memorable," then fine, you win. Guess you also think there are no warnings for many of the "surprise" winter storms over the last 15 years or so. There are so many people that study in-depth meteorology. They post online. They warn often before our government does. Since they do not rely on meteorology for their livelihood, they also do not default to NOAA for warnings as a safety net to cover their careers. Believe or not, AI results do not change the scenario just because you experienced it differently.

You were arguing that the derecho was predicted. It wasn’t as I’ve said repeatedly- it took the area by surprise. Bizarre that I have to remind you of your own argument. I guess you are confused. Have a nice day!