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I have a second grader at a DCI feeder and looking at the 2024 enrollment numbers for the DCI feeders, I am wondering how good our odds actually will be for non-siblings once we're doing the lottery for sixth grade. Mundo Verde and Stokes both have double the number of current second graders than designated DCI seats, and DCB and LAMB both have 70+ second graders for 50 seats.
Does anyone know if there is data available about the percentage of siblings at the feeder schools vs. non-siblings? Have any schools communicated changes to their backfilling policies to ensure seats are available for existing students? Any other families getting concerned that their non-sibling preference kids aren't going to get a spot? What are you thinking? If we bomb the sixth grade lottery and don't get a good enough number for DCI, we surely won't get a spot at Latin or Basis. |
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https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay
You can see data here. My understanding is that it really just depends on how many kids in the class actually enroll at DCI, so it'll vary from year to year. In the case of MV, if they stop backfilling (or run out of applicants) the 5th grade cohort may not be as big as when those same kids were 2nd graders. The entry year for Latin and BASIS is 5th grade, so anyone who wants to attend those schools starting in 5th has to forgo their feeder preference at DCI. And they make very few, if any, 6th grade offers. So basically, not everyone who was at the DCI feeder for 4th grade is going to be there for 5th grade, and that improves the chances of those who stay. I did learn at a DCI open house that un-used spots of feeder schools are offered to waitlisted students at other feeder schools before being offered to non-feeder lottery applicants. So that helps a little, if there are any spots left over. |
| There's not a lot of data because it's a relatively recent issue. I think (though am sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong) that this was the first year (or possibly next year will be the first year) where there isn't room for all the feeder kids. Regardless of the exact timing, there isn't a lot of data that can help provide additional information. |
Right, I think the MV letter said historically 85-90% fifth graders continue to DCI, so I'd guess that's roughly accurate across feeder schools. Which means not even all sibling preference kids may get a seat at MV and Stokes, unless there's a lot of attrition (and it's unlikely the siblings would be the ones leaving). Meaning non-feeder kids would have no seats left... A big concern is with backfilling those fifth grade seats with new students who are lotterying in presumably for the DCI feed. Though perhaps you'll see fewer of those students if the odds are sub 50% vs. 100%. It would be great if DCI feeders would stop backfilling after third grade or so, but I guess that would be money left on the table due to unfilled seats, so seems unlikely. And I think the un-used seats offer is just a talking point. I highly doubt there will be any unfilled seats left once all of the feeder schools are sending bigger classes to DCI. |
| I think many families are also considering Latin if they can get a spot. It was a pretty popular option at our DCI feeder. |
| DCI family here - DCI is in the final stages of updating their strategic plan for the next 5 years. The plan includes: "continue to consider the conditions that may prompt DCI to expand." I have no inside knowledge but DCI is considering the problem future families face. |
Lol. People are always saying DCI will surely expand soon, but this isn't exactly a promise. |
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The DCI feed has been a huge part of the appeal of these schools, and they would be foolish to ignore it. That being said I think DCI and the feeders will ultimately provide more spaces, but will not be able to do it in time to help the kids currently in lower elementary grades. I think the current 4th graders will probably be okay, but (collectively, across the feeders) the 3rd grade class, OP's 2nd grade class, and probably the current 1st grade class will all feel the crunch.
Like PP I don't have any actual information, I'm just looking at the physical space at DCI (not the enrollment cap, which I know people point to) and trying to figure out where they would put more kids. I do think they will figure it out, but it will take a while, and there are likely to be a few grades left in the lurch while it gets sorted. |
Clearly it isn't a promise based on the language they use. But it is clear they know they need to have the conversation about expansion. |
Yes. I never understand why people think DCI is expanding anytime soon. To go from this kind of language, which isn't very strongly worded even, to having a building and a program up and running, takes 2-3 years minimum. |
As it should. The appeal of DCI is a better option than what you'd have otherwise. A rushed expansion wouldn't serve anyone. |
Except the people who would otherwise not be served, because they would be shut out in the lottery. |
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I was worried about this until we saw how many unhappy people were at our dci feeder. So many leave in 3rd and 4th that I’m no longer worried about losing a dci spot.
DCI families seem happy. |
Are the spaces not being backfilled as people leave? |
Nope |