For the sake of all of us, Sonia Sotomayor needs to retire from the US supreme court

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Late 60s is plenty old enough to retire.

But Republicans want to raise retirement to above age 70. Which is it?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The GOP is not going to get more SCOTUS nominations. the voters will see to that.

Right now the race is a nail biter. And Turnip is leading all the swing states except one where he is tied. A pattern that's been established for too long. Even if Biden wins the popular vote thanks to massive lopsided votes in California and New York, if he loses the swing votes he loses the election. And that's a very reasonable outcome. In short, the voters are not necessarily going to see things the same way you do.

It would be very ironic if Turnip wins and Sotomayor does die and he gets a fourth nominee on the court!

Not really. In the last 2 years, since RvW was overturned, the polls have been pretty inaccurate. Abortion is becoming the overturning issue because suburban women and young voters 18-34 are turning out in droves. Both demographics normally vote in very low numbers, but anywhere that abortion is on the ballot, they are turning out in very large numbers. Additionally these two key demographics, are very infrequently in the polling at any significant numbers. So two groups that are polling like 70-80% in favor of abortion are not being recorded in the polling because they don't have landlines and they don't answer calls from unknown numbers on their cell phones.

2022 and 2023 showed us that even in deep red states like Kansas, Ohio and Kentucky, abortion became the most significant issue that brought in people who normally do not vote. In 2022 and 2023, polls were showing that abortion was about 58-59 pro and 41-42 con. But recent polling, especially since Texas has lead the way with draconian abortion laws, abortion is now polling about 70-75 pro and 25-30 con. Biden has already started using his large war chest (which until March was nearly double what Trump had) to start to paint abortion as the number one issue and it's going to be at the forefront of the election.

Biden and Trump are both unpopular presidents who have close to the same number of supporters that vote straight party ticket and about the same number of rabid anti-candidate opponents (the ABT and ABB camps). They are running very close in traditional voters. It's going to come down to the non-voters who will swing and with public sentiment about abortion restrictions the way they currently are, I expect that Biden is likely to sweep the purple swing states.

The Republicans think that the border control and illegal immigrant issue is stronger than the abortion issue. The problem with this sentiment is that the majority of the people who support the Republican issues are voters who normally vote anyways and who are more likely to be caught by polling. The ones who frequently don't vote and who traditionally don't get caught in polls are overwhelmingly more affected by abortion.

Blah blah blah. I'm not going to read your screed because you are ignoring the polls over and over again. The polls consistently show a small Turnip lead with the occasional poll giving Biden the lead, but the balance is still in Turnips' favor, and the polls of the swing states show Turnip consistently winning them. That is what matters. Not your angry screeds on abortion. The hopes and dreams that somehow hordes of pro-choicers are magically going to flip Florida or Ohio for Biden in 2024 are exactly just that - hopes and dreams. IF that was a factor, then we'd be seeing it in the polls right now, but we aren't.

You do know people are perfectly capable of voting down an abortion referendum and still voting for Turnip? And abortion isn't most people #1 priority going into the election.

Okay then let's look at polling and election results:
Kansas 2022: Pre-election voters were 47% pro-life and 43% pro-choice, 10% undecided. The amendment was overturned 59/40, so a 16% change.
Ohio 2023: Pre-election voters were 43% pro-life and 56% pro-choice. The amendment to protect reproductive rights passed 61/37, a 5% change
Andy Beshear was in a close race for reelection in 2023. Preelection polls showed him not getting 50%. He won reelection 52-47. Beshear ran heavily on a platform to preserve a woman's right to choose.

When abortion is on the ballot, the polls have been inaccurate. I predict they are again for the same reasons.

[Anonymous]

Clarence Thomas looks like a walking case of diabetes too. He's older than Sotomayor, fat, and a black male. Remember he was hospitalized for a week for a mystery illness last year? A bonus if he dies in his sleep, his wife will cease to be of value to her insurrectionist cohorts. How's she going to live without that extra $600k every year? For the sake of all of us, Clarence Thomas should retire.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The GOP is not going to get more SCOTUS nominations. the voters will see to that.

Right now the race is a nail biter. And Turnip is leading all the swing states except one where he is tied. A pattern that's been established for too long. Even if Biden wins the popular vote thanks to massive lopsided votes in California and New York, if he loses the swing votes he loses the election. And that's a very reasonable outcome. In short, the voters are not necessarily going to see things the same way you do.

It would be very ironic if Turnip wins and Sotomayor does die and he gets a fourth nominee on the court!

Not really. In the last 2 years, since RvW was overturned, the polls have been pretty inaccurate. Abortion is becoming the overturning issue because suburban women and young voters 18-34 are turning out in droves. Both demographics normally vote in very low numbers, but anywhere that abortion is on the ballot, they are turning out in very large numbers. Additionally these two key demographics, are very infrequently in the polling at any significant numbers. So two groups that are polling like 70-80% in favor of abortion are not being recorded in the polling because they don't have landlines and they don't answer calls from unknown numbers on their cell phones.

2022 and 2023 showed us that even in deep red states like Kansas, Ohio and Kentucky, abortion became the most significant issue that brought in people who normally do not vote. In 2022 and 2023, polls were showing that abortion was about 58-59 pro and 41-42 con. But recent polling, especially since Texas has lead the way with draconian abortion laws, abortion is now polling about 70-75 pro and 25-30 con. Biden has already started using his large war chest (which until March was nearly double what Trump had) to start to paint abortion as the number one issue and it's going to be at the forefront of the election.

Biden and Trump are both unpopular presidents who have close to the same number of supporters that vote straight party ticket and about the same number of rabid anti-candidate opponents (the ABT and ABB camps). They are running very close in traditional voters. It's going to come down to the non-voters who will swing and with public sentiment about abortion restrictions the way they currently are, I expect that Biden is likely to sweep the purple swing states.

The Republicans think that the border control and illegal immigrant issue is stronger than the abortion issue. The problem with this sentiment is that the majority of the people who support the Republican issues are voters who normally vote anyways and who are more likely to be caught by polling. The ones who frequently don't vote and who traditionally don't get caught in polls are overwhelmingly more affected by abortion.

Blah blah blah. I'm not going to read your screed because you are ignoring the polls over and over again. The polls consistently show a small Turnip lead with the occasional poll giving Biden the lead, but the balance is still in Turnips' favor, and the polls of the swing states show Turnip consistently winning them. That is what matters. Not your angry screeds on abortion. The hopes and dreams that somehow hordes of pro-choicers are magically going to flip Florida or Ohio for Biden in 2024 are exactly just that - hopes and dreams. IF that was a factor, then we'd be seeing it in the polls right now, but we aren't.

You do know people are perfectly capable of voting down an abortion referendum and still voting for Turnip? And abortion isn't most people #1 priority going into the election.

Okay then let's look at polling and election results:
Kansas 2022: Pre-election voters were 47% pro-life and 43% pro-choice, 10% undecided. The amendment was overturned 59/40, so a 16% change.
Ohio 2023: Pre-election voters were 43% pro-life and 56% pro-choice. The amendment to protect reproductive rights passed 61/37, a 5% change
Andy Beshear was in a close race for reelection in 2023. Preelection polls showed him not getting 50%. He won reelection 52-47. Beshear ran heavily on a platform to preserve a woman's right to choose.

When abortion is on the ballot, the polls have been inaccurate. I predict they are again for the same reasons.

Vance still won Ohio comfortably, Trump is going to win Ohio comfortably. Beshar was an incumbent with a history of popularity who led in most polls prior to the election. Kansas is firmly and unquestionably a Republican state and will deliver a landslide to Turnip.

There is no poll showing an invisible army of pro-choicers lying to the polls today and who will lead the Democrats to a massive blowout. It just isn't happening. You are delusional and clueless.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Clarence Thomas looks like a walking case of diabetes too. He's older than Sotomayor, fat, and a black male. Remember he was hospitalized for a week for a mystery illness last year? A bonus if he dies in his sleep, his wife will cease to be of value to her insurrectionist cohorts. How's she going to live without that extra $600k every year? For the sake of all of us, Clarence Thomas should retire.

There is a very good chance Thomas would be replaced in the next 4 years.

[Anonymous]

The thing that I really wonder about is: Under what circumstances would Roberts retire? He seems to care about his legacy and it must occur to him that despite Kennedy's role as the swing vote on many significant cases, he's remembered now as the guy who brought us Kavanaugh.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The GOP is not going to get more SCOTUS nominations. the voters will see to that.

Right now the race is a nail biter. And Turnip is leading all the swing states except one where he is tied. A pattern that's been established for too long. Even if Biden wins the popular vote thanks to massive lopsided votes in California and New York, if he loses the swing votes he loses the election. And that's a very reasonable outcome. In short, the voters are not necessarily going to see things the same way you do.

It would be very ironic if Turnip wins and Sotomayor does die and he gets a fourth nominee on the court!

Not really. In the last 2 years, since RvW was overturned, the polls have been pretty inaccurate. Abortion is becoming the overturning issue because suburban women and young voters 18-34 are turning out in droves. Both demographics normally vote in very low numbers, but anywhere that abortion is on the ballot, they are turning out in very large numbers. Additionally these two key demographics, are very infrequently in the polling at any significant numbers. So two groups that are polling like 70-80% in favor of abortion are not being recorded in the polling because they don't have landlines and they don't answer calls from unknown numbers on their cell phones.

2022 and 2023 showed us that even in deep red states like Kansas, Ohio and Kentucky, abortion became the most significant issue that brought in people who normally do not vote. In 2022 and 2023, polls were showing that abortion was about 58-59 pro and 41-42 con. But recent polling, especially since Texas has lead the way with draconian abortion laws, abortion is now polling about 70-75 pro and 25-30 con. Biden has already started using his large war chest (which until March was nearly double what Trump had) to start to paint abortion as the number one issue and it's going to be at the forefront of the election.

Biden and Trump are both unpopular presidents who have close to the same number of supporters that vote straight party ticket and about the same number of rabid anti-candidate opponents (the ABT and ABB camps). They are running very close in traditional voters. It's going to come down to the non-voters who will swing and with public sentiment about abortion restrictions the way they currently are, I expect that Biden is likely to sweep the purple swing states.

The Republicans think that the border control and illegal immigrant issue is stronger than the abortion issue. The problem with this sentiment is that the majority of the people who support the Republican issues are voters who normally vote anyways and who are more likely to be caught by polling. The ones who frequently don't vote and who traditionally don't get caught in polls are overwhelmingly more affected by abortion.

Blah blah blah. I'm not going to read your screed because you are ignoring the polls over and over again. The polls consistently show a small Turnip lead with the occasional poll giving Biden the lead, but the balance is still in Turnips' favor, and the polls of the swing states show Turnip consistently winning them. That is what matters. Not your angry screeds on abortion. The hopes and dreams that somehow hordes of pro-choicers are magically going to flip Florida or Ohio for Biden in 2024 are exactly just that - hopes and dreams. IF that was a factor, then we'd be seeing it in the polls right now, but we aren't.

You do know people are perfectly capable of voting down an abortion referendum and still voting for Turnip? And abortion isn't most people #1 priority going into the election.

Okay then let's look at polling and election results:
Kansas 2022: Pre-election voters were 47% pro-life and 43% pro-choice, 10% undecided. The amendment was overturned 59/40, so a 16% change.
Ohio 2023: Pre-election voters were 43% pro-life and 56% pro-choice. The amendment to protect reproductive rights passed 61/37, a 5% change
Andy Beshear was in a close race for reelection in 2023. Preelection polls showed him not getting 50%. He won reelection 52-47. Beshear ran heavily on a platform to preserve a woman's right to choose.

When abortion is on the ballot, the polls have been inaccurate. I predict they are again for the same reasons.

Vance still won Ohio comfortably, Trump is going to win Ohio comfortably. Beshar was an incumbent with a history of popularity who led in most polls prior to the election. Kansas is firmly and unquestionably a Republican state and will deliver a landslide to Turnip.

There is no poll showing an invisible army of pro-choicers lying to the polls today and who will lead the Democrats to a massive blowout. It just isn't happening. You are delusional and clueless.

You knuckleheads are trying to predict the accuracy of polling data in the 2024 presidential election based off of the accuracy of polling data from other recent elections. You are comparing apples to oranges (literally and figuratively haha). People like Beshear are legitimate candidates that people should be voting for. Trump and Biden are the two weakest presidential candidates in American history for obvious reasons. There are many, many variables related to their weaknesses that could come into play between now and Election Day 2024 and these variables make any current polling data unreliable.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The thing that I really wonder about is: Under what circumstances would Roberts retire? He seems to care about his legacy and it must occur to him that despite Kennedy's role as the swing vote on many significant cases, he's remembered now as the guy who brought us Kavanaugh.

He is 69, just like Sotomayor.
He usually disappoints me, but every now and then he’ll do something not terrible.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The GOP is not going to get more SCOTUS nominations. the voters will see to that.

Right now the race is a nail biter. And Turnip is leading all the swing states except one where he is tied. A pattern that's been established for too long. Even if Biden wins the popular vote thanks to massive lopsided votes in California and New York, if he loses the swing votes he loses the election. And that's a very reasonable outcome. In short, the voters are not necessarily going to see things the same way you do.

It would be very ironic if Turnip wins and Sotomayor does die and he gets a fourth nominee on the court!

Not really. In the last 2 years, since RvW was overturned, the polls have been pretty inaccurate. Abortion is becoming the overturning issue because suburban women and young voters 18-34 are turning out in droves. Both demographics normally vote in very low numbers, but anywhere that abortion is on the ballot, they are turning out in very large numbers. Additionally these two key demographics, are very infrequently in the polling at any significant numbers. So two groups that are polling like 70-80% in favor of abortion are not being recorded in the polling because they don't have landlines and they don't answer calls from unknown numbers on their cell phones.

2022 and 2023 showed us that even in deep red states like Kansas, Ohio and Kentucky, abortion became the most significant issue that brought in people who normally do not vote. In 2022 and 2023, polls were showing that abortion was about 58-59 pro and 41-42 con. But recent polling, especially since Texas has lead the way with draconian abortion laws, abortion is now polling about 70-75 pro and 25-30 con. Biden has already started using his large war chest (which until March was nearly double what Trump had) to start to paint abortion as the number one issue and it's going to be at the forefront of the election.

Biden and Trump are both unpopular presidents who have close to the same number of supporters that vote straight party ticket and about the same number of rabid anti-candidate opponents (the ABT and ABB camps). They are running very close in traditional voters. It's going to come down to the non-voters who will swing and with public sentiment about abortion restrictions the way they currently are, I expect that Biden is likely to sweep the purple swing states.

The Republicans think that the border control and illegal immigrant issue is stronger than the abortion issue. The problem with this sentiment is that the majority of the people who support the Republican issues are voters who normally vote anyways and who are more likely to be caught by polling. The ones who frequently don't vote and who traditionally don't get caught in polls are overwhelmingly more affected by abortion.

Blah blah blah. I'm not going to read your screed because you are ignoring the polls over and over again. The polls consistently show a small Turnip lead with the occasional poll giving Biden the lead, but the balance is still in Turnips' favor, and the polls of the swing states show Turnip consistently winning them. That is what matters. Not your angry screeds on abortion. The hopes and dreams that somehow hordes of pro-choicers are magically going to flip Florida or Ohio for Biden in 2024 are exactly just that - hopes and dreams. IF that was a factor, then we'd be seeing it in the polls right now, but we aren't.

You do know people are perfectly capable of voting down an abortion referendum and still voting for Turnip? And abortion isn't most people #1 priority going into the election.

Okay then let's look at polling and election results:
Kansas 2022: Pre-election voters were 47% pro-life and 43% pro-choice, 10% undecided. The amendment was overturned 59/40, so a 16% change.
Ohio 2023: Pre-election voters were 43% pro-life and 56% pro-choice. The amendment to protect reproductive rights passed 61/37, a 5% change
Andy Beshear was in a close race for reelection in 2023. Preelection polls showed him not getting 50%. He won reelection 52-47. Beshear ran heavily on a platform to preserve a woman's right to choose.

When abortion is on the ballot, the polls have been inaccurate. I predict they are again for the same reasons.

Vance still won Ohio comfortably, Trump is going to win Ohio comfortably. Beshar was an incumbent with a history of popularity who led in most polls prior to the election. Kansas is firmly and unquestionably a Republican state and will deliver a landslide to Turnip.

There is no poll showing an invisible army of pro-choicers lying to the polls today and who will lead the Democrats to a massive blowout. It just isn't happening. You are delusional and clueless.

You knuckleheads are trying to predict the accuracy of polling data in the 2024 presidential election based off of the accuracy of polling data from other recent elections. You are comparing apples to oranges (literally and figuratively haha). People like Beshear are legitimate candidates that people should be voting for. Trump and Biden are the two weakest presidential candidates in American history for obvious reasons. There are many, many variables related to their weaknesses that could come into play between now and Election Day 2024 and these variables make any current polling data unreliable.

These variables and weaknesses being:
Biden is old
Trump is old
Trump's criminal trial
Trump's other criminal trial
Trump's criminal trial that won't really matter because the judge is in his corner
Trump's other criminal trial that won't really matter because it's too large and complicated and the prosecution has some major issues
Trump's trial that won't land him in prison but might cost him bigly, wrecking his reputation as a businessman

Am I missing anything?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The GOP is not going to get more SCOTUS nominations. the voters will see to that.

Right now the race is a nail biter. And Turnip is leading all the swing states except one where he is tied. A pattern that's been established for too long. Even if Biden wins the popular vote thanks to massive lopsided votes in California and New York, if he loses the swing votes he loses the election. And that's a very reasonable outcome. In short, the voters are not necessarily going to see things the same way you do.

It would be very ironic if Turnip wins and Sotomayor does die and he gets a fourth nominee on the court!

Not really. In the last 2 years, since RvW was overturned, the polls have been pretty inaccurate. Abortion is becoming the overturning issue because suburban women and young voters 18-34 are turning out in droves. Both demographics normally vote in very low numbers, but anywhere that abortion is on the ballot, they are turning out in very large numbers. Additionally these two key demographics, are very infrequently in the polling at any significant numbers. So two groups that are polling like 70-80% in favor of abortion are not being recorded in the polling because they don't have landlines and they don't answer calls from unknown numbers on their cell phones.

2022 and 2023 showed us that even in deep red states like Kansas, Ohio and Kentucky, abortion became the most significant issue that brought in people who normally do not vote. In 2022 and 2023, polls were showing that abortion was about 58-59 pro and 41-42 con. But recent polling, especially since Texas has lead the way with draconian abortion laws, abortion is now polling about 70-75 pro and 25-30 con. Biden has already started using his large war chest (which until March was nearly double what Trump had) to start to paint abortion as the number one issue and it's going to be at the forefront of the election.

Biden and Trump are both unpopular presidents who have close to the same number of supporters that vote straight party ticket and about the same number of rabid anti-candidate opponents (the ABT and ABB camps). They are running very close in traditional voters. It's going to come down to the non-voters who will swing and with public sentiment about abortion restrictions the way they currently are, I expect that Biden is likely to sweep the purple swing states.

The Republicans think that the border control and illegal immigrant issue is stronger than the abortion issue. The problem with this sentiment is that the majority of the people who support the Republican issues are voters who normally vote anyways and who are more likely to be caught by polling. The ones who frequently don't vote and who traditionally don't get caught in polls are overwhelmingly more affected by abortion.

Blah blah blah. I'm not going to read your screed because you are ignoring the polls over and over again. The polls consistently show a small Turnip lead with the occasional poll giving Biden the lead, but the balance is still in Turnips' favor, and the polls of the swing states show Turnip consistently winning them. That is what matters. Not your angry screeds on abortion. The hopes and dreams that somehow hordes of pro-choicers are magically going to flip Florida or Ohio for Biden in 2024 are exactly just that - hopes and dreams. IF that was a factor, then we'd be seeing it in the polls right now, but we aren't.

You do know people are perfectly capable of voting down an abortion referendum and still voting for Turnip? And abortion isn't most people #1 priority going into the election.

Okay then let's look at polling and election results:
Kansas 2022: Pre-election voters were 47% pro-life and 43% pro-choice, 10% undecided. The amendment was overturned 59/40, so a 16% change.
Ohio 2023: Pre-election voters were 43% pro-life and 56% pro-choice. The amendment to protect reproductive rights passed 61/37, a 5% change
Andy Beshear was in a close race for reelection in 2023. Preelection polls showed him not getting 50%. He won reelection 52-47. Beshear ran heavily on a platform to preserve a woman's right to choose.

When abortion is on the ballot, the polls have been inaccurate. I predict they are again for the same reasons.

Vance still won Ohio comfortably, Trump is going to win Ohio comfortably. Beshar was an incumbent with a history of popularity who led in most polls prior to the election. Kansas is firmly and unquestionably a Republican state and will deliver a landslide to Turnip.

There is no poll showing an invisible army of pro-choicers lying to the polls today and who will lead the Democrats to a massive blowout. It just isn't happening. You are delusional and clueless.

You knuckleheads are trying to predict the accuracy of polling data in the 2024 presidential election based off of the accuracy of polling data from other recent elections. You are comparing apples to oranges (literally and figuratively haha). People like Beshear are legitimate candidates that people should be voting for. Trump and Biden are the two weakest presidential candidates in American history for obvious reasons. There are many, many variables related to their weaknesses that could come into play between now and Election Day 2024 and these variables make any current polling data unreliable.

These variables and weaknesses being:
Biden is old
Trump is old
Trump's criminal trial
Trump's other criminal trial
Trump's criminal trial that won't really matter because the judge is in his corner
Trump's other criminal trial that won't really matter because it's too large and complicated and the prosecution has some major issues
Trump's trial that won't land him in prison but might cost him bigly, wrecking his reputation as a businessman

Am I missing anything?

Most Americans think the economy is going to hell and Democrats would rather tell them they're wrong to care about 20% inflation since Biden took office

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The GOP is not going to get more SCOTUS nominations. the voters will see to that.

Right now the race is a nail biter. And Turnip is leading all the swing states except one where he is tied. A pattern that's been established for too long. Even if Biden wins the popular vote thanks to massive lopsided votes in California and New York, if he loses the swing votes he loses the election. And that's a very reasonable outcome. In short, the voters are not necessarily going to see things the same way you do.

It would be very ironic if Turnip wins and Sotomayor does die and he gets a fourth nominee on the court!

Not really. In the last 2 years, since RvW was overturned, the polls have been pretty inaccurate. Abortion is becoming the overturning issue because suburban women and young voters 18-34 are turning out in droves. Both demographics normally vote in very low numbers, but anywhere that abortion is on the ballot, they are turning out in very large numbers. Additionally these two key demographics, are very infrequently in the polling at any significant numbers. So two groups that are polling like 70-80% in favor of abortion are not being recorded in the polling because they don't have landlines and they don't answer calls from unknown numbers on their cell phones.

2022 and 2023 showed us that even in deep red states like Kansas, Ohio and Kentucky, abortion became the most significant issue that brought in people who normally do not vote. In 2022 and 2023, polls were showing that abortion was about 58-59 pro and 41-42 con. But recent polling, especially since Texas has lead the way with draconian abortion laws, abortion is now polling about 70-75 pro and 25-30 con. Biden has already started using his large war chest (which until March was nearly double what Trump had) to start to paint abortion as the number one issue and it's going to be at the forefront of the election.

Biden and Trump are both unpopular presidents who have close to the same number of supporters that vote straight party ticket and about the same number of rabid anti-candidate opponents (the ABT and ABB camps). They are running very close in traditional voters. It's going to come down to the non-voters who will swing and with public sentiment about abortion restrictions the way they currently are, I expect that Biden is likely to sweep the purple swing states.

The Republicans think that the border control and illegal immigrant issue is stronger than the abortion issue. The problem with this sentiment is that the majority of the people who support the Republican issues are voters who normally vote anyways and who are more likely to be caught by polling. The ones who frequently don't vote and who traditionally don't get caught in polls are overwhelmingly more affected by abortion.

Blah blah blah. I'm not going to read your screed because you are ignoring the polls over and over again. The polls consistently show a small Turnip lead with the occasional poll giving Biden the lead, but the balance is still in Turnips' favor, and the polls of the swing states show Turnip consistently winning them. That is what matters. Not your angry screeds on abortion. The hopes and dreams that somehow hordes of pro-choicers are magically going to flip Florida or Ohio for Biden in 2024 are exactly just that - hopes and dreams. IF that was a factor, then we'd be seeing it in the polls right now, but we aren't.

You do know people are perfectly capable of voting down an abortion referendum and still voting for Turnip? And abortion isn't most people #1 priority going into the election.

Okay then let's look at polling and election results:
Kansas 2022: Pre-election voters were 47% pro-life and 43% pro-choice, 10% undecided. The amendment was overturned 59/40, so a 16% change.
Ohio 2023: Pre-election voters were 43% pro-life and 56% pro-choice. The amendment to protect reproductive rights passed 61/37, a 5% change
Andy Beshear was in a close race for reelection in 2023. Preelection polls showed him not getting 50%. He won reelection 52-47. Beshear ran heavily on a platform to preserve a woman's right to choose.

When abortion is on the ballot, the polls have been inaccurate. I predict they are again for the same reasons.

Vance still won Ohio comfortably, Trump is going to win Ohio comfortably. Beshar was an incumbent with a history of popularity who led in most polls prior to the election. Kansas is firmly and unquestionably a Republican state and will deliver a landslide to Turnip.

There is no poll showing an invisible army of pro-choicers lying to the polls today and who will lead the Democrats to a massive blowout. It just isn't happening. You are delusional and clueless.

You knuckleheads are trying to predict the accuracy of polling data in the 2024 presidential election based off of the accuracy of polling data from other recent elections. You are comparing apples to oranges (literally and figuratively haha). People like Beshear are legitimate candidates that people should be voting for. Trump and Biden are the two weakest presidential candidates in American history for obvious reasons. There are many, many variables related to their weaknesses that could come into play between now and Election Day 2024 and these variables make any current polling data unreliable.

These variables and weaknesses being:
Biden is old
Trump is old
Trump's criminal trial
Trump's other criminal trial
Trump's criminal trial that won't really matter because the judge is in his corner
Trump's other criminal trial that won't really matter because it's too large and complicated and the prosecution has some major issues
Trump's trial that won't land him in prison but might cost him bigly, wrecking his reputation as a businessman

Am I missing anything?

You hit on most of the weaknesses. These are two very unpopular candidates for good reason and yes, Trump should be even less popular than Biden by any reasonable measure. How did we get ourselves into this political mess? Will we ever have a real president again?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The GOP is not going to get more SCOTUS nominations. the voters will see to that.

Right now the race is a nail biter. And Turnip is leading all the swing states except one where he is tied. A pattern that's been established for too long. Even if Biden wins the popular vote thanks to massive lopsided votes in California and New York, if he loses the swing votes he loses the election. And that's a very reasonable outcome. In short, the voters are not necessarily going to see things the same way you do.

It would be very ironic if Turnip wins and Sotomayor does die and he gets a fourth nominee on the court!

Not really. In the last 2 years, since RvW was overturned, the polls have been pretty inaccurate. Abortion is becoming the overturning issue because suburban women and young voters 18-34 are turning out in droves. Both demographics normally vote in very low numbers, but anywhere that abortion is on the ballot, they are turning out in very large numbers. Additionally these two key demographics, are very infrequently in the polling at any significant numbers. So two groups that are polling like 70-80% in favor of abortion are not being recorded in the polling because they don't have landlines and they don't answer calls from unknown numbers on their cell phones.

2022 and 2023 showed us that even in deep red states like Kansas, Ohio and Kentucky, abortion became the most significant issue that brought in people who normally do not vote. In 2022 and 2023, polls were showing that abortion was about 58-59 pro and 41-42 con. But recent polling, especially since Texas has lead the way with draconian abortion laws, abortion is now polling about 70-75 pro and 25-30 con. Biden has already started using his large war chest (which until March was nearly double what Trump had) to start to paint abortion as the number one issue and it's going to be at the forefront of the election.

Biden and Trump are both unpopular presidents who have close to the same number of supporters that vote straight party ticket and about the same number of rabid anti-candidate opponents (the ABT and ABB camps). They are running very close in traditional voters. It's going to come down to the non-voters who will swing and with public sentiment about abortion restrictions the way they currently are, I expect that Biden is likely to sweep the purple swing states.

The Republicans think that the border control and illegal immigrant issue is stronger than the abortion issue. The problem with this sentiment is that the majority of the people who support the Republican issues are voters who normally vote anyways and who are more likely to be caught by polling. The ones who frequently don't vote and who traditionally don't get caught in polls are overwhelmingly more affected by abortion.

Blah blah blah. I'm not going to read your screed because you are ignoring the polls over and over again. The polls consistently show a small Turnip lead with the occasional poll giving Biden the lead, but the balance is still in Turnips' favor, and the polls of the swing states show Turnip consistently winning them. That is what matters. Not your angry screeds on abortion. The hopes and dreams that somehow hordes of pro-choicers are magically going to flip Florida or Ohio for Biden in 2024 are exactly just that - hopes and dreams. IF that was a factor, then we'd be seeing it in the polls right now, but we aren't.

You do know people are perfectly capable of voting down an abortion referendum and still voting for Turnip? And abortion isn't most people #1 priority going into the election.

Okay then let's look at polling and election results:
Kansas 2022: Pre-election voters were 47% pro-life and 43% pro-choice, 10% undecided. The amendment was overturned 59/40, so a 16% change.
Ohio 2023: Pre-election voters were 43% pro-life and 56% pro-choice. The amendment to protect reproductive rights passed 61/37, a 5% change
Andy Beshear was in a close race for reelection in 2023. Preelection polls showed him not getting 50%. He won reelection 52-47. Beshear ran heavily on a platform to preserve a woman's right to choose.

When abortion is on the ballot, the polls have been inaccurate. I predict they are again for the same reasons.

Vance still won Ohio comfortably, Trump is going to win Ohio comfortably. Beshar was an incumbent with a history of popularity who led in most polls prior to the election. Kansas is firmly and unquestionably a Republican state and will deliver a landslide to Turnip.

There is no poll showing an invisible army of pro-choicers lying to the polls today and who will lead the Democrats to a massive blowout. It just isn't happening. You are delusional and clueless.

You knuckleheads are trying to predict the accuracy of polling data in the 2024 presidential election based off of the accuracy of polling data from other recent elections. You are comparing apples to oranges (literally and figuratively haha). People like Beshear are legitimate candidates that people should be voting for. Trump and Biden are the two weakest presidential candidates in American history for obvious reasons. There are many, many variables related to their weaknesses that could come into play between now and Election Day 2024 and these variables make any current polling data unreliable.

These variables and weaknesses being:
Biden is old
Trump is old
Trump's criminal trial
Trump's other criminal trial
Trump's criminal trial that won't really matter because the judge is in his corner
Trump's other criminal trial that won't really matter because it's too large and complicated and the prosecution has some major issues
Trump's trial that won't land him in prison but might cost him bigly, wrecking his reputation as a businessman

Am I missing anything?

Most Americans think the economy is going to hell and Democrats would rather tell them they're wrong to care about 20% inflation since Biden took office

So I'm sure Trump has some detailed policy proposals to reduce inflation over the next short period of time.

[Anonymous]

Why should she retire because she has diabetes? Half the country has that.

Blame RBG. She was like 90 something years old with cancer and didn’t want to retire when Obama begged her to

[Anonymous]

RBG was so sure Hillary would win that she didn’t want to retire

[Anonymous]

RBG FAFO

Hopefully Soto will do the same.