Again, the transfers out are not all to escape a bad school. For example, we see a trend where families cycle between rentals, usually apartments, in different zones. In those cases, population remains more stable if you look at the group of schools as a single unit. |
Nope. What I’m saying is what I wrote in my post, not what your flawed attempt to justify your relatively extreme positions leads you to believe. You don’t speak for me. |
Most transfers are to escape the underperforming school. That’s why the underperforming schools have humongous net outflow while the better performing schools don’t. It’s really not hard to see that in the data. If we really care about using available seats, that’s the absolute first place to start. |
The new low-income units in Tysons are going to tank school performance at Marshall and McLean. The school performance death spiral will begin in these pyramids soon. |
That would be a good thing for the county to witness, and not because I want to see the downfall of McLean, but because McLean would be a shining example of how schools are still "good" despite having poor kids attend. The good half of McLean would be winning academic awards rivaling TJ while GreatSchools ranks it a 4 just because some ELL kids fail their SOLs. Everyone would finally realize what a bunch of nonsense the rankings are. Who cares what the ESOL kids are scoring? The AP kids at McLean would still be at the top of the county. |
Many Parents will interpret lower tests scores as a sign the school is declining. People do not want to send their kids to schools with low test scores regardless of the reason. The end result is that meaningful portion of people will change school attendance zones, relocate to other school districts or enroll in private school which creates a school performance death spiral. |
. The school performance death spiral also creates funding issues for the county because revenue follows the students. |
Marshall, Madison, McLean, and Langley can absorb quite a few low income students and not create a death spiral. The current ones being built will have minimal effect. |
I see a ton of new houses over $2M selling in the McLean district, as older houses continue to get torn down and replaced with new, larger homes that have families with school-age kids. Some of those families will go private, but many will send their kids to public schools. If McLean were to get overcrowded again to the point requiring another boundary change (for now, they are doing OK with the modular and a few trailers), two scenarios seem most likely. 1. The Timber Lane island that includes a number of low-income garden apartments gets moved to Jackson/Falls Church. Falls Church will have more space after its renovation is completed, and Timber Lane is already a McLean/Falls Church split feeder. 2. The Spring Hill island that includes a number of moderate-income apartments (and could include one planned all-affordable housing building) gets moved to Cooper/Langley, and western Great Falls gets moved to Herndon/Herndon. Spring Hill is already a Langley/McLean split feeder. Either of these scenarios could end up largely a wash for McLean in terms of its ESOL/FARMS population. Marshall is a bit trickier, because if it got crowded one scenario would be to send the single-family neighborhoods in Vienna near Wolf Trap to Madison, which got an addition and has space. That would quickly push up the FARMS percentage at Marshall. However, another alternative, just as with McLean, could be to send part of Tysons zoned to Marshall to Langley, and then part of Langley to Herndon. That would allow Marshall to retain the Vienna neighborhoods. |
Yeah, Not true McLean is already at 9% low income and Tyson’s housing is super high density. That 100% affordable housing development in Tysons has 516 units that are limited to people with income at 60% of FC AMI. It includes a lot of 2-3 bedroom units so the student generation factor will be relatively high. This project alone will easily add close to 100 HS students and boost the low income percentage to 12%-13% range. The tipping point for he eats spiral is around 20% and woke inclusionary zoning policies can easily make up for this remaining gap. |
Death spiral* |
McLean is higher than 9% FARMS now. It was 12% last year according to FCPS, and it's probably increased a percentage point or two this year. However, the 516-unit affordable housing project to which you're referring (Exchange at Spring Hill, formerly called Dominion Square West) is zoned to Marshall, not McLean. County projections suggested it could add 16 more students to Marshall, not 100, if it had 500 units, so your estimate of 100 more HS students for 516 units appears to be inconsistent with the county's projections. I'm not sure if you're worried about a "death spiral" at McLean, or instead eager to precipitate one, but it's more than a bit premature. |
Boo Hoo. Other schools have to deal with FARMs rates well above 20%. |
And she’s back, contributing nothing more than vitriol. |
*It's not about the low test scores.* I can't emphasize this enough. I don't really care if a whole pile of other kids in my kid's school are failing their tests. The problem isn't their test scores, it's their behavior (bullying, gangs, drugs, alcohol, crime), their disruptions, and their soaking up of teacher and administrative attention that would be better spent on better students. There are no such things as "good schools" and "bad schools." It's not about the school facilities. It's not about the teachers. It's about the quality of students that YOUR kids will be surrounded by, and how that is going to affect their education. Everyone inherently knows this but our leftist board and entrenched bureaucracy ignore it because the actual solutions are politically unpalatable. |