Hypothesis: Peak UVA

[Anonymous]

Here are my supporting arguments:

1. After many years of large increases in the number of apps, 2018 yielded just 423 more than 2017, a paltry number.

2. There are only 40-50K high school students in the country who score 33 or above on the ACT and/or 1450 and above on the SAT. Competition for those students is more fierce now than ever before, with so many schools offering generous merit aid, both public and private. UVA will face increasing competition for its OOS portion of these students, even in state kids at this level will have options they never previously had.

3. Population growth in Virginia is not what it once was, it has become a net exporter of people to other states.

4. Nationally the number of high school students is expected to decline in over the coming years.

5. UVA is not the bargain it once was for OOS students. For full pay OOS its costs are very similar to an Ivy or other higher ranked universities.

6. As the minority population grows, high school students will be less interested in "Mr. Jefferson" and the "Charlottesville air" as the Fiske guide puts it.

7. UVA has been a hot school since at least the nineties. Nothing lasts forever. It will never reach the 110k application mark of a UCLA. Popularity waxes and wanes: look at the fortunes of Columbia, BU and BC over the decades or Dartmouth in the other direction.

8. And here is my hope: that as the higher ed bubble continues to burst, it will affect all schools except perhaps HYPSM, and that in the AI driven job apocalypse that is supposedly coming, those who do go to college will decide they want an education on a human scale and realize that a large, research university is not the best place for an undergraduate education.

So to summarize, my theory is that UVA has reached peak apps and selectivity. Time will tell.

[Anonymous]

Cool. And this is useful because? People are still going to keep applying to schools they want to go to.

[Anonymous]

You need a hobby. Might I suggest volunteering?

[Anonymous]

You are a freak.

[Anonymous]

Cool. And this is useful because? People are still going to keep applying to schools they want to go to.

Yes, you're quite right. First, many people, perhaps not you, find the changing landscape of American higher ed fascinating. Secondly, if the the hypothesis is correct, it will have a direct affect on those in high school now, class of '19 and beyond, who are looking at their college options and making tentative plans. It would have significance especially for Virginians, where so many seem to think that the upward march of UVA will continue indefinitely.

[Anonymous]

UVa undergrad is actually not that large compared to places like Berkeley, UCLA, and Michigan which are its public state university peers.

[Anonymous]

Well okay then...

[Anonymous]

You are a freak.

Thank you for the constructive criticism.

[Anonymous]

I have the opposite hypothesis.

I think that college tuition has outstripped tuition and wage growth for decades. It has even outpaced earnings growth in the top decile of HHI. I don't have reference, but would venture that far more than 50% of the 95th percentile test scorers come from between 90 and 98th percentile for HHI. Above 98, can still afford very expensive private schools. Below 90 can get FA at the wealthiest privates. But the bulk of the top scorers don't fit either and will be choosing between their state flagships or less selective privates at which they can get merit aid. I think demand for the state flagships will continue to increase. Too many people just cannot afford 300K for a private college. UVA may start to lose some OOS top students, but will make up for it by capturing more VA students.

[Anonymous]

6. As the minority population grows, high school students will be less interested in "Mr. Jefferson" and the "Charlottesville air" as the Fiske guide puts it.

This would be less of an issue if UVA actively focused on creating a diverse experience. Sadly, they don’t.
-frustrated alum

[Anonymous]

I have the opposite hypothesis.

I think that college tuition has outstripped tuition and wage growth for decades. It has even outpaced earnings growth in the top decile of HHI. I don't have reference, but would venture that far more than 50% of the 95th percentile test scorers come from between 90 and 98th percentile for HHI. Above 98, can still afford very expensive private schools. Below 90 can get FA at the wealthiest privates. But the bulk of the top scorers don't fit either and will be choosing between their state flagships or less selective privates at which they can get merit aid. I think demand for the state flagships will continue to increase. Too many people just cannot afford 300K for a private college. UVA may start to lose some OOS top students, but will make up for it by capturing more VA students.

Yes you make a great point. My counterpoint would be that there are only so many kids with scores at these high percentiles, which drive selectivity. Even donut hole families in state are now being offered generous merit aid by the likes of Tulane and Alabama, to name just two. It's a different national landscape now with more options than ever before. Of course UVA will remain attractive to many high performing kids in state. My point was about the trajectory. If the population of Virginia remains stable, so will the number of high stat kids, thus UVA will not continue to increase it's selectivity.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I have the opposite hypothesis.

I think that college tuition has outstripped tuition and wage growth for decades. It has even outpaced earnings growth in the top decile of HHI. I don't have reference, but would venture that far more than 50% of the 95th percentile test scorers come from between 90 and 98th percentile for HHI. Above 98, can still afford very expensive private schools. Below 90 can get FA at the wealthiest privates. But the bulk of the top scorers don't fit either and will be choosing between their state flagships or less selective privates at which they can get merit aid. I think demand for the state flagships will continue to increase. Too many people just cannot afford 300K for a private college. UVA may start to lose some OOS top students, but will make up for it by capturing more VA students.

This. We are already seeing this phenomenon in other state flagship schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I have the opposite hypothesis.

I think that college tuition has outstripped tuition and wage growth for decades. It has even outpaced earnings growth in the top decile of HHI. I don't have reference, but would venture that far more than 50% of the 95th percentile test scorers come from between 90 and 98th percentile for HHI. Above 98, can still afford very expensive private schools. Below 90 can get FA at the wealthiest privates. But the bulk of the top scorers don't fit either and will be choosing between their state flagships or less selective privates at which they can get merit aid. I think demand for the state flagships will continue to increase. Too many people just cannot afford 300K for a private college. UVA may start to lose some OOS top students, but will make up for it by capturing more VA students.

+ this. Plus the international students. This is also why Californians got angry and won the battle for in-state students and forced the Regents to up the number of seats for UC students to 80% instate. Henceforth, the internationals and OOS will be fighting for only 20% of the seats in California.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

I have the opposite hypothesis.

I think that college tuition has outstripped tuition and wage growth for decades. It has even outpaced earnings growth in the top decile of HHI. I don't have reference, but would venture that far more than 50% of the 95th percentile test scorers come from between 90 and 98th percentile for HHI. Above 98, can still afford very expensive private schools. Below 90 can get FA at the wealthiest privates. But the bulk of the top scorers don't fit either and will be choosing between their state flagships or less selective privates at which they can get merit aid. I think demand for the state flagships will continue to increase. Too many people just cannot afford 300K for a private college. UVA may start to lose some OOS top students, but will make up for it by capturing more VA students.

Yes you make a great point. My counterpoint would be that there are only so many kids with scores at these high percentiles, which drive selectivity. Even donut hole families in state are now being offered generous merit aid by the likes of Tulane and Alabama, to name just two. It's a different national landscape now with more options than ever before. Of course UVA will remain attractive to many high performing kids in state. My point was about the trajectory. If the population of Virginia remains stable, so will the number of high stat kids, thus UVA will not continue to increase it's selectivity.

Not if the internationals continue to wish to study in the USA, of which we are seeing just the beginning of the avalanche. Two decades ago I read a Fortune/Money or Forbes piece about how it would be easier for my children to get into college because of demographic changes with the end of the babies from the baby boomers. What that author did not know was that USN&WR listings would enter the market and drive all the colleges and universities into this fierce battle fighting over yield and selectivity figures; that college costs would outpace inflation simply because they can charge anything they want and still fill seats; and that the international students, especially from India, S. korea and China would flood our schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

6. As the minority population grows, high school students will be less interested in "Mr. Jefferson" and the "Charlottesville air" as the Fiske guide puts it.

This would be less of an issue if UVA actively focused on creating a diverse experience. Sadly, they don’t.
-frustrated alum

I thinkyou are quite wrong. The class of 2022 has 35% URM, 10% first generation, a large number of low income families, and a very large international component. Also it strikes for a 1/3 OOS balance. AA applications and acceptances hit an all-time high. of 37,000+ applications, 11,000 AA applications were accepted. https://www.news.virginia.edu/content/uva-tops-admission-application-record-third-straight-year. AT 58% in-state, UVA is way ahead of UCLA and Berkeley, which now are ordered to be 80% Californian, leaving only 20% of the seats for internationals and OOS