Biden’s economy

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:A good data point on why one is better off than four years ago:

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/05/are-you-better-off-than-you-were-four-years-ago-market-based-pce-deflated-consumption

Oh wait, that data was skewed by the pandemic. Let's look back when the economy was normal:

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/05/are-you-better-off-than-you-were-five-years-ago

So, to sum up: per capita GDP, consumption, disposable income and median household income are higher than they were five years ago. The unemployment rate is the same. The VIX and Economic Policy Uncertainty (bad things, I’d say) were higher five years ago than today. The negative is the “misery index” is 1.7 ppts higher than it was five years ago (but for certain it is now lower than it was four years ago).

Interesting comment that really gets to the psychology of the American electorate:

I...would add that people also tend to shift time lines. Still remember a conservative family member who 6 month after Obama took office blamed him for the bail out of the banks. Even when I pointed out that the banks had been bailed out (no questions asked) by Bush II, and it was the strict bail out of the auto industry that had been done by Obama – he still insisted that Obama had just given out our money with no strings attacked. I would not be surprised at all to see people blaming Biden for the poor response to (and outcomes of) Covid in this country.

Fortunately, Obama was re-elected in 2012 despite the fact that people were mad at him for the "bailout" of banks engineered in the last year of the GW Bush administration.

[Anonymous]

usually crime is up under a bad economy

(yes it is bad in DC but getting better)

[Anonymous]

The Yield Curve has been inverted for over 500 days now. In last 100 years, this has happened ONLY 3 times- 1929, 1974, 2008.

In each one of these instances, the market will shed more than 50% in coming months.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What Obamacare did was incentivize employers to cut hours and push zero hour contracts where no hours are guaranteed. That pushed the gih economy with people working 2-3 p/t jobs to make ends meet.
.

Obamacare didn’t do that. Hedge funds and corporate execs trying to get their “performance” bonuses did that. I mean if you gave people predictable schedules you might overstaff by .25 one day and then the CEO might only make $15 million…..

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:usually crime is up under a bad economy

(yes it is bad in DC but getting better)

Hey I haven't MAGAs whine about crime in Chicago, LA, San Francisco, or some other "godless city" in a while. I guess Biden has been "backing the blue" and strong on crime so that message no longer resonates.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What Obamacare did was incentivize employers to cut hours and push zero hour contracts where no hours are guaranteed. That pushed the gih economy with people working 2-3 p/t jobs to make ends meet.
.

Obamacare didn’t do that. Hedge funds and corporate execs trying to get their “performance” bonuses did that. I mean if you gave people predictable schedules you might overstaff by .25 one day and then the CEO might only make $15 million…..

No. Obamacare did that. Employers saw the mandates and took action. I spellef out the consequences.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:usually crime is up under a bad economy

(yes it is bad in DC but getting better)

Hey I haven't MAGAs whine about crime in Chicago, LA, San Francisco, or some other "godless city" in a while. I guess Biden has been "backing the blue" and strong on crime so that message no longer resonates.

So what are you telling us? He sold out the blue before he backed them?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:usually crime is up under a bad economy

(yes it is bad in DC but getting better)

Hey I haven't MAGAs whine about crime in Chicago, LA, San Francisco, or some other "godless city" in a while. I guess Biden has been "backing the blue" and strong on crime so that message no longer resonates.

What' the source of this data Rattner cites?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:usually crime is up under a bad economy

(yes it is bad in DC but getting better)

Did they run out of people to murder?

[Anonymous]

Right on time! More bribes to the voters...

White House Begins a Multi-Trillion Stimulus Package For America

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/white-house-begins-a-multi-trillion-stimulus-package-for-america/ss-BB1lXM6f

[Anonymous]

More good news for Uncle Bosie

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:More good news for Uncle Bosie

This is what's supposed to happen with moving rates higher. What wasn't clear about this? What do you want: i) inflation under control and a cooling economy and employment market or ii) inflation and interest rates to remain high? You simpletons don't understand you can't have both.

[Anonymous]

All the data says the economy is "strong" while:

1. Starbucks stock fell 20% after reporting a 6% drop in traffic

2. Uber stock fell 10% after reporting a net loss

3. Shopify stock fell 20% after issuing weak guidance

4. Netflix stock fell 10% after reporting a weaker outlook for Q3 2024

5. Doordash stock fell 15% after reporting a $21 million loss

6. CVS Pharmacy stock fell 17% after net income fell by 50%

7. Etsy stock fell 11% after reporting weak earnings due to the "macroeconomy"

8. EBay stock fell 5% after reporting weaker guidance

Is the economy really that strong?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:All the data says the economy is "strong" while:

1. Starbucks stock fell 20% after reporting a 6% drop in traffic

2. Uber stock fell 10% after reporting a net loss

3. Shopify stock fell 20% after issuing weak guidance

4. Netflix stock fell 10% after reporting a weaker outlook for Q3 2024

5. Doordash stock fell 15% after reporting a $21 million loss

6. CVS Pharmacy stock fell 17% after net income fell by 50%

7. Etsy stock fell 11% after reporting weak earnings due to the "macroeconomy"

8. EBay stock fell 5% after reporting weaker guidance

Is the economy really that strong?

https://www.wsj.com/finance/corporate-profits-economy-recession-jobs-growth-069e2090?st=mavftzrmy5hbog6&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

The WSJ would disagree with you. "The bulk of U.S. companies have now reported first-quarter results, and they show profit growth is picking up. Earnings per share for companies in the S&P 500 now look to be up 5.2% from a year earlier, according to FactSet, better than the 3.4% analysts expected at the end of March, and marking the strongest growth in nearly two years."

"Among companies in the S&P 500, the term “recession” showed up in just 100 transcripts of earnings calls, investor events and conferences recorded in the first quarter, according to FactSet. That was down from 302 in the first quarter of 2023, and the fewest in two years."

"When profits start faltering, it will be a good time to worry about jobs. But they aren’t faltering yet."

Maybe don't cherry pick data and look at the overall market for profits instead.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:All the data says the economy is "strong" while:

1. Starbucks stock fell 20% after reporting a 6% drop in traffic

2. Uber stock fell 10% after reporting a net loss

3. Shopify stock fell 20% after issuing weak guidance

4. Netflix stock fell 10% after reporting a weaker outlook for Q3 2024

5. Doordash stock fell 15% after reporting a $21 million loss

6. CVS Pharmacy stock fell 17% after net income fell by 50%

7. Etsy stock fell 11% after reporting weak earnings due to the "macroeconomy"

8. EBay stock fell 5% after reporting weaker guidance

Is the economy really that strong?

They are referring to Shopify as Dropify