Biden’s economy

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:CBS: "Two-thirds of voters think the economy was better under President Trump!"

HAKEEM JEFFRIES: "That's just not the case."

It is, in fact, the case:

— Inflation has averaged 5.6% under Biden; it averaged 1.9% under Trump.

— Real average weekly earnings are down 3.9% under Biden; they were up 8.2% under Trump.

— The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was ~2.7% when Biden took office; it's ~7.3% today.

— Gas prices are ~53% higher than when Biden took office.

-- Average rents rose 25% between January 2020 and March 2024. There are political observers who think the increase in rental prices will drive a fair amount of the swing vote.

People aren’t too smart. They forget Trump was President all of 2020. It started under Trump, took time to fix but Biden likely won’t get the credit. Rent inflation has been very low this last year.

My mistake! Took the wrong starting year. The increase from year-end 2020 to March 2024 was 20%.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:CBS: "Two-thirds of voters think the economy was better under President Trump!"

HAKEEM JEFFRIES: "That's just not the case."

It is, in fact, the case:

— Inflation has averaged 5.6% under Biden; it averaged 1.9% under Trump.

— Real average weekly earnings are down 3.9% under Biden; they were up 8.2% under Trump.

— The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was ~2.7% when Biden took office; it's ~7.3% today.

— Gas prices are ~53% higher than when Biden took office.

-- Average rents rose 25% between January 2020 and March 2024. There are political observers who think the increase in rental prices will drive a fair amount of the swing vote.

People aren’t too smart. They forget Trump was President all of 2020. It started under Trump, took time to fix but Biden likely won’t get the credit. Rent inflation has been very low this last year.

My mistake! Took the wrong starting year. The increase from year-end 2020 to March 2024 was 20%.

lol. Didn’t fit the narrative that rent increases started under Trump in 2020. It took a while to tapper that momentum but it has declined significantly.

[Anonymous]

We need TRUMP as President so he can put a stop to the greed of big grocery and big restaurant and stop the price gouging.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We need TRUMP as President so he can put a stop to the greed of big grocery and big restaurant and stop the price gouging.

You ain't seen anything yet.

The interest on the national debt next year will be 1.7 Trillion.

The entire DoD yearly budget is only 850 Billion a year.

This party is just getting started.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We need TRUMP as President so he can put a stop to the greed of big grocery and big restaurant and stop the price gouging.

and he would do what, exactly?

[Anonymous]

One of many pension funds (both domestic and foreign) who will be affected by the real estate market.

[Anonymous]

US manufacturing and services employment has simultaneously contracted for 3 consecutive months.
Over the last 20 years, this has happened ONLY twice, during the 2020 pandemic and 2008 Financial Crisis.

More than 800 companies from manufacturing and services sectors claim that employment is falling.

Meanwhile, according to US jobs data, the US job market has never been stronger.

Data indicates that the US has added 100,000+ jobs 40 straight months, the best streak in US history.

Another disconnect between data and reality.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:One of many pension funds (both domestic and foreign) who will be affected by the real estate market.

What's your point? They probably underwrote the building prior to work from home and on the basis of a 3% cap rate. When cash is earning 5%, they're massively underwater. This is true of any interest rate sensitive asset that was purchased prior to the runup in interest rates. The only losers here are the private equity firms and their limited partners.

[Anonymous]

Nothing to see here... FOUR MORE YEARS

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Nothing to see here... FOUR MORE YEARS

Ah yes, let's return to office a lifelong real estate investor and slumlord as well as the propertied class. I'm sure they'll make rent more affordable, PP. Yes, let's just look to what the GOP has ever done to help the lower and middle classes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:US manufacturing and services employment has simultaneously contracted for 3 consecutive months.
Over the last 20 years, this has happened ONLY twice, during the 2020 pandemic and 2008 Financial Crisis.

What is your source for this? It sounds either made or at best cherry picking the data.

[Anonymous]

What Obamacare did was incentivize employers to cut hours and push zero hour contracts where no hours are guaranteed. That pushed the gih economy with people working 2-3 p/t jobs to make ends meet.

Now, "good jobs" impose ridiculous requirements on entry level jobs, like 4 to 5 years experience required.

Additionally, go to your local restaurants and retailers and watch. Are shopping carts full? Anyone in the restaurants? They're not doing the take out volume they did two months ago. This economy is softening everywhere.

[Anonymous]

Gig economy

[Anonymous]

A good data point on why one is better off than four years ago:

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/05/are-you-better-off-than-you-were-four-years-ago-market-based-pce-deflated-consumption

Oh wait, that data was skewed by the pandemic. Let's look back when the economy was normal:

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/05/are-you-better-off-than-you-were-five-years-ago

So, to sum up: per capita GDP, consumption, disposable income and median household income are higher than they were five years ago. The unemployment rate is the same. The VIX and Economic Policy Uncertainty (bad things, I’d say) were higher five years ago than today. The negative is the “misery index” is 1.7 ppts higher than it was five years ago (but for certain it is now lower than it was four years ago).

[Anonymous]

About those tech layoffs - I guess it's not stopping the largest tech firms from massively upping their capital expenditures:

https://basehitinvesting.substack.com/p/big-tech-capex-and-earnings-quality

Capital invested by MSFT, GOOG, META and AMZN in 2017 was $117 billion. By comparison, it's expected to reach $724 billion this year for just these four companies.