Doing math on the new boundaries
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Anonymous
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I'm starting to do some math on the new boundaries and the various feeder arrangements. I'm not sure though if I'm thinking about this the right way though. I started with Deal first, because it's such a source of controversy. Here's what I see ...
Deal capacity: 1200 (grades 6, 7, 8) Capacity of Deal's proposed new feeders: Bancroft (563), Hearst (325), Janney (570), Lafayette (516), Murch (488), Shepherd (342) (all grades K-5?) Assumptions: (1) Each of the feeders will be filled to capacity. Most are filled already, and I'm guessing that with the boundary changes, many more OOB students will apply to fill up remaining capacity, in hopes of getting access to Deal. (2) The spread of students is roughly even across the grades. In other words, if Murch has 488 students across six grades, that's about 81 students per grade. Are those valid assumptions? Help me out here. If my assumptions are right, then the collective feeders will be putting 1400 students into Deal each year. That's 200 more than capacity. That's not including the 20+% growth projected for the Deal boundary area. That's not including the extra 10% OOB set aside seats at Deal that the proposal calls for (120 seats). I get that some number of students may switch to private school after elementary, but will it really be that many? If my back-of-envelope math is correct, it seems the proposal will quickly put Deal well over capacity. Since I'd expect the DME's proposal to actually work mathematically, I'm think I must be missing something. What is it? Where will all those elementary students go besides Deal? Any help appreciated. |
Anonymous
| Lafayette is only sending about 100 kids next year. So, they would have about 300 kids there spread through 6-8th. Not sure where the 516 came from. |
Anonymous
Some of those schools have 6 grades and some have 7. None have just 5. Also, there will always be kids who peel off to go to other programs at Middle School. Let's assume that the average feeder has the equivalent of 6th grade, so that Deal with 3 grades have to hold 1/2 the kids of the feeders. Then let's assume that 90% of the students stay. That's 1032 kids. Add in 120 for the 10% new OOB and you're still below 1200. On top of that, Deal is a huge building. I spend a lot of time in an MCPS middle school with a population that's the same size and it's much smaller. While 1200 may be the official capacity, it's not going to be suddenly swamped at 1300 or 1400. Yes, it might need a few trailers, but I think that almost every parent in DC would choose Deal with 1 or 2 classes in a trailer over any other DCPS middle school choice. |
Anonymous
| The DME already has a feeder pattern analysis showing how many of this year's Deal 6th graders went to each feeder. |
Anonymous
I am not following you. When I look at the schools data chart from DME, it looks like all the Deal feeders end at 5th grade. None go to 6th or 7th. So anyone following the feeder pattern will jump to Deal in 6th grade. What am I missing? Also, the sum capacity of all those feeders is 2804. So 90% of half of that is 1261 (61 more than capacity). Add in the 10% OOB set aside, and we're up to 1381. And that's before any projected growth. I'm still missing something, I suspect. |
Anonymous
Yes, but given the new boundaries and new feeder patterns, I suspect that will change, won't it? That's why I'm trying to estimate whether the proposed plan gets Deal and other schools right-sized on capacity. |
Anonymous
Not PP, but I think what s/he means is all those schools have a PK year, and some have a PS year, so the kids-per-grade is smaller than your math indicates. |
Anonymous
516 is Lafayette's capacity. It currently has 689 students (134% of capacity) spread across K-5th (plus PK), so 100 students per year to Deal sounds about accurate. |
Anonymous
Ahh, that makes sense. Are the PK and PS grades generally about the same size as others? Or smaller? |
Anonymous
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Not sure what Murch will be next year but this year they added in an additional 5th grade. I believe that the current 3rd grade is one of the largest cohorts at the school. So they may have to ramp up for that.
A few other things-- Deal is adding in Reno School so that may change their capacity. |
Anonymous
| Some will go to Basis or Latin. But these days very few are going to private over Deal. Both Lafayette and Janney send over 90% of their 5th graders to Deal. |
Anonymous
| Lets see what the next Mayor decides on doing before doing anymore analysis. Bowser has stated that she wouldn't cut Powell out of Deal - so more kids |
Anonymous
The Reno School is included in the 1200 capacity. It was 900+ before Reno School and trailers. |
Anonymous
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It's even worse for Wilson. Capacity of Wilson is under 400 per grade. Deal has 400 per grade, Hardy has 170. Combined capacity of the feeders is about 40% above capacity of the school. That's with Oyster out, and boundaries aligned with feeder boundaries.
The boundary commission just decided to kick the can down the road on that one. The basic problem: the Deal feeders were and continue to be expanded with no regard for the capacity of Deal. Then Deal is expanded with no regard for the capacity of Wilson. There is just no capacity within DCPS to say no. |
Anonymous
+1. Nothing has changed in terms of adding population to Deal. Eaton and Crestwood neighborhood has been removed. With Latin, Basis and now DCI I imagine the Deal participation will be even lower than current. |