HARDY: Anyone know how many feeder school kids attending next yr?

[Anonymous]

We're eagerly watching to see if this school is turning. Anyone have news? Gossip? Speculation?

[Anonymous]

Does your child attend a feeder school? Have you attended any of the meetings that Principal Pride has held at the feeder schools?

[Anonymous]

turning?
send you kid if you want to go to your neighborhood school. everyone is waiting for everyone else, seems like an endless empty loop to me. hardy has a great staff, great principal, great kids. be part of it or not, stop waiting to see what your neighbors will do.will

[Anonymous]

How could anyone at this point know how many feeder school kids will choose to go? Even if they fill out a form and say they will, they play the lottery like anyone else and may have another option. So no, I don't think anyone knows.

[Anonymous]

While I would love to see a turn-around at Hardy, I am not optimistic that it will happen in the near term.

The kids at the feeders are much better prepared for MS than the OOB kids are. Since Hardy offers no meaningful differentiation (sorry, SEM does not cut it), the kids from the feeders will be decelerated while the OOB kids are given a chance to catch up by HS. Sadly, many of OOB kids still won't catch up by HS, but the feeder kids will certainly fall behind where they might otherwise have been and where their peers at Deal MS will end up.

A Hardy turn-around would require the school to admit no OOB kids into the 6th grade, except perhaps for a handful of siblings of current OOB kids. Hardy is funded based on an enrollment of 400 kids. DCPS will not cut the funding until enrollment drops below 370. I don't know the enrollment numbers for the current 6th and 7th grades, but let's suppose it's suppose it's 250 (about 2/3 of 370) and all of those kids return next year. Hardy would need 120 new kids next year to keep its funding.

If, say, 80 kids from feeder schools enroll in the 6th grade next year, a turn-around might be possible by admitting 40 OOB kids into the 7th and 8th grades or by giving up some funding.

That's highly unlikely, though. A more realistic 6th grade enrollment from feeder schools next year is 20 to 30 kids, which is 90 to 100 kids short of what is needed to keep the school funded at present levels. Hardy can't admit 90 to 100 kids to its 7th and 8th grades without damaging those grades and having an adverse impact on Wilson HS. So, at least half and probably 2/3 of next year's 6th grade will consist of OOB kids. Furthermore, those kids won't be admitted until this school year is almost over, or perhaps even during the summer. My suspicion is that the delay will further reduce the caliber of the incoming OOB kids.

I fear that the Hardy turn-around plan is actually, and perhaps unintentionally, a multi-year bait-and-switch. Each winter & spring, the principal will visit feeder schools and promise low OOB enrollment in the 6th grade the next year based on conversations with activist feeder parents and signed, but non-binding, intent to enroll letters. Each fall, the actual OOB enrollment will be revealed to be much, much higher than promised. By then, however, the enrolled feeder families will have no meaningful options and will probably tough it out at Hardy.

Ultimately, I think that the multi-year bait-and-switch will succeed. The Hardy program is "good enough" for many people and confirmation bias will win over the others. Each year, the early pioneers will return to their feeder schools to recruit new families, and the feeder enrollment in the Hardy 6th grade will grow over time. Eventually, the feeder enrollment will hit a critical point -- the point at which it makes more sense to run an under-funded neighborhood school than a well-funded city-wide school. At that point, the turn-around at Hardy will be truly remarkable.

The big question is how long that process will take. My guess is 5 years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:While I would love to see a turn-around at Hardy, I am not optimistic that it will happen in the near term.

The kids at the feeders are much better prepared for MS than the OOB kids are. Since Hardy offers no meaningful differentiation (sorry, SEM does not cut it), the kids from the feeders will be decelerated while the OOB kids are given a chance to catch up by HS. Sadly, many of OOB kids still won't catch up by HS, but the feeder kids will certainly fall behind where they might otherwise have been and where their peers at Deal MS will end up.

A Hardy turn-around would require the school to admit no OOB kids into the 6th grade, except perhaps for a handful of siblings of current OOB kids. Hardy is funded based on an enrollment of 400 kids. DCPS will not cut the funding until enrollment drops below 370. I don't know the enrollment numbers for the current 6th and 7th grades, but let's suppose it's suppose it's 250 (about 2/3 of 370) and all of those kids return next year. Hardy would need 120 new kids next year to keep its funding.

If, say, 80 kids from feeder schools enroll in the 6th grade next year, a turn-around might be possible by admitting 40 OOB kids into the 7th and 8th grades or by giving up some funding.

That's highly unlikely, though. A more realistic 6th grade enrollment from feeder schools next year is 20 to 30 kids, which is 90 to 100 kids short of what is needed to keep the school funded at present levels. Hardy can't admit 90 to 100 kids to its 7th and 8th grades without damaging those grades and having an adverse impact on Wilson HS. So, at least half and probably 2/3 of next year's 6th grade will consist of OOB kids. Furthermore, those kids won't be admitted until this school year is almost over, or perhaps even during the summer. My suspicion is that the delay will further reduce the caliber of the incoming OOB kids.

I fear that the Hardy turn-around plan is actually, and perhaps unintentionally, a multi-year bait-and-switch. Each winter & spring, the principal will visit feeder schools and promise low OOB enrollment in the 6th grade the next year based on conversations with activist feeder parents and signed, but non-binding, intent to enroll letters. Each fall, the actual OOB enrollment will be revealed to be much, much higher than promised. By then, however, the enrolled feeder families will have no meaningful options and will probably tough it out at Hardy.

Ultimately, I think that the multi-year bait-and-switch will succeed. The Hardy program is "good enough" for many people and confirmation bias will win over the others. Each year, the early pioneers will return to their feeder schools to recruit new families, and the feeder enrollment in the Hardy 6th grade will grow over time. Eventually, the feeder enrollment will hit a critical point -- the point at which it makes more sense to run an under-funded neighborhood school than a well-funded city-wide school. At that point, the turn-around at Hardy will be truly remarkable.

The big question is how long that process will take. My guess is 5 years.

Five years is actually pretty quick. In the meantime, if you've been paying attention to Hardy, you'll see that there will be separate classes in different subjects for higher-performing kids. That's pretty good.

[Anonymous]

"Hardy can't admit 90 to 100 kids to its 7th and 8th grades without damaging those grades"

what does this statement mean? you are assuming that OOB kids are so sub-par that they will DAMAGE the entire grade level? seriously people--what it up with that? I know LOTS of OOB kids at Hardy who are at the top of their class, are great role models, and who add a lot to the school.

If all of the neighborhood people would just go to the school you would all be together!!! Just commit and stop assuming that anyone outside of your neighborhood is undesirable.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The big question is how long that process will take. My guess is 5 years.

Five years is actually pretty quick. In the meantime, if you've been paying attention to Hardy, you'll see that there will be separate classes in different subjects for higher-performing kids. That's pretty good.

You're right, PP. My youngest is a 2nd grader at a Hardy feeder. My guess of 5 years is probably just wishful thinking on my part.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:"Hardy can't admit 90 to 100 kids to its 7th and 8th grades without damaging those grades"

what does this statement mean? you are assuming that OOB kids are so sub-par that they will DAMAGE the entire grade level? seriously people--what it up with that? I know LOTS of OOB kids at Hardy who are at the top of their class, are great role models, and who add a lot to the school.

If all of the neighborhood people would just go to the school you would all be together!!! Just commit and stop assuming that anyone outside of your neighborhood is undesirable.

No one IB is going to want to go to Hardy anyway once it no longer feeds Wilson.

[Anonymous]

Where would hardy feed to?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:"Hardy can't admit 90 to 100 kids to its 7th and 8th grades without damaging those grades"

what does this statement mean? you are assuming that OOB kids are so sub-par that they will DAMAGE the entire grade level? seriously people--what it up with that? I know LOTS of OOB kids at Hardy who are at the top of their class, are great role models, and who add a lot to the school.

If all of the neighborhood people would just go to the school you would all be together!!! Just commit and stop assuming that anyone outside of your neighborhood is undesirable.

It comes down to probabilities, self-selection, reformation, and expulsion, PP. The OOB kids at the top of their class in 7th and 8th grade at Hardy almost certainly entered Hardy in 6th. Some might even have come from a Hardy feeder.

Since almost every DCPS 5th grader is looking for a good MS, a random selection of kids from the OOB lottery for the 6th grade is likely to produce, motivated and prepared kids, motivated but unprepared kids, and unmotivated and potentially disruptive kids. The motivated but unprepared kids will thrive by finally being placed in a challenging academic environment. With the low tolerance for disruptive behavior that I understand exists at Hardy, the unmotivated and disruptive kids will be reformed or expelled by the end of 6th grade.

Now consider the kids who enter the OOB lottery for 7th and 8th grade. A much higher percentage of these kids will be unmotivated and disruptive, with many switching schools every year, hoping that a change in environment will change their behavior. Similarly, more of these 7th and 8th grade OOB hopefuls will be motivated but unprepared, hoping to escape a failing MS after years in a failing ES. The unmotivated and disruptive kids will disrupt the 7th and 8th grade classrooms, at least until they are reformed or expelled. The motivated but unprepared kids will slow down their 7th and 8th grade classrooms while they try to catch up from an additional year or two in a failing MS relative to their peers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:"Hardy can't admit 90 to 100 kids to its 7th and 8th grades without damaging those grades"

what does this statement mean? you are assuming that OOB kids are so sub-par that they will DAMAGE the entire grade level? seriously people--what it up with that? I know LOTS of OOB kids at Hardy who are at the top of their class, are great role models, and who add a lot to the school.

If all of the neighborhood people would just go to the school you would all be together!!! Just commit and stop assuming that anyone outside of your neighborhood is undesirable.

It comes down to probabilities, self-selection, reformation, and expulsion, PP. The OOB kids at the top of their class in 7th and 8th grade at Hardy almost certainly entered Hardy in 6th. Some might even have come from a Hardy feeder.

Since almost every DCPS 5th grader is looking for a good MS, a random selection of kids from the OOB lottery for the 6th grade is likely to produce, motivated and prepared kids, motivated but unprepared kids, and unmotivated and potentially disruptive kids. The motivated but unprepared kids will thrive by finally being placed in a challenging academic environment. With the low tolerance for disruptive behavior that I understand exists at Hardy, the unmotivated and disruptive kids will be reformed or expelled by the end of 6th grade.

Now consider the kids who enter the OOB lottery for 7th and 8th grade. A much higher percentage of these kids will be unmotivated and disruptive, with many switching schools every year, hoping that a change in environment will change their behavior. Similarly, more of these 7th and 8th grade OOB hopefuls will be motivated but unprepared, hoping to escape a failing MS after years in a failing ES. The unmotivated and disruptive kids will disrupt the 7th and 8th grade classrooms, at least until they are reformed or expelled. The motivated but unprepared kids will slow down their 7th and 8th grade classrooms while they try to catch up from an additional year or two in a failing MS relative to their peers.

To the extent this theory is correct - and there is no reason to think that it is - it would be mitigated by the fact that current Hardy policy is to let in a much, much, smaller number of 7th graders, and an even small number of 8th graders via the lottery. I believe there were only 5 or 6 new 8th graders this year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
To the extent this theory is correct - and there is no reason to think that it is - it would be mitigated by the fact that current Hardy policy is to let in a much, much, smaller number of 7th graders, and an even small number of 8th graders via the lottery. I believe there were only 5 or 6 new 8th graders this year.

I believe you are correct, PP. I was replying to reply to my post about the possibility of admitting significantly more 7th and 8th graders next year as a way to fund Hardy at the 400-student level while admitting few OOB kids into next year's 6th grade.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We're eagerly watching to see if this school is turning. Anyone have news? Gossip? Speculation?

Yes, the school is turning. Principal Pride has a solid vision, the administrative capability to turn that vision into a reality, and the support of key DCPS officials and Education Committee Chairman Catania.

The students at Hardy now are thriving under her leadership, with an expanded and better organized SEM program, math differentiation already in place, and a strong sense of discipline (with several troublemakers sent back to their in-boundary schools). For future students, she is putting in plans for additional differentiation and academic opportunities and shaping the faculty to meet her needs.

What is helping this along is that, while in past years feeder school parents have stood on the sidelines, pointed fingers, and complained about Hardy, there is now an active group of feeder school parents that is working with Principal Pride to improve the school and achieve her vision.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:"Hardy can't admit 90 to 100 kids to its 7th and 8th grades without damaging those grades"

what does this statement mean? you are assuming that OOB kids are so sub-par that they will DAMAGE the entire grade level? seriously people--what it up with that? I know LOTS of OOB kids at Hardy who are at the top of their class, are great role models, and who add a lot to the school.

If all of the neighborhood people would just go to the school you would all be together!!! Just commit and stop assuming that anyone outside of your neighborhood is undesirable.

No one IB is going to want to go to Hardy anyway once it no longer feeds Wilson.

I have seen nothing that indicates this is likely. It would be cutting their nose off to spite their face.