TJ drop outs under the new admission standards

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Interesting data point. There are MORE Asian students at TJ than in 18-19 and 17-18.

21-22: 1,258
20-21: 1,299
19-20: 1,292
18-19: 1,244
17-18: 1,210



I’ll have to update these numbers too…

Number of Asian students enrolled at TJ by school year:
17-18: 1,216
18-19: 1,251
19-20: 1,293
20-21: 1,303
21-22: 1,264 **
22-23: 1,293 **
23-24: 1,275 **

I don't remember why, but my original data was from January enrollments. These are fall enrollments.





More inconvenient facts, visualized.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Interesting data point. There are MORE Asian students at TJ than in 18-19 and 17-18.

21-22: 1,258
20-21: 1,299
19-20: 1,292
18-19: 1,244
17-18: 1,210



I’ll have to update these numbers too…

Number of Asian students enrolled at TJ by school year:
17-18: 1,216
18-19: 1,251
19-20: 1,293
20-21: 1,303
21-22: 1,264 **
22-23: 1,293 **
23-24: 1,275 **

I don't remember why, but my original data was from January enrollments. These are fall enrollments.





More inconvenient facts, visualized.


It seems pretty insignificant, and I'd read the largest beneficiaries of the new process were low-income Asians.
Anonymous


Merit Test admissions:
Class of 2022 Algebra 1 admits: 19
Class of 2023 Algebra 1 admits: 31
Class of 2024 Algebra 1 admits: 22

Essay lottery admissions:
Class of 2024 Algebra 1 admits: 161 <-- one third of the class

Cheating incidents widespread, after switching to essay lottery admissions
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:

Merit Test admissions:
Class of 2022 Algebra 1 admits: 19
Class of 2023 Algebra 1 admits: 31
Class of 2024 Algebra 1 admits: 22

Essay lottery admissions:
Class of 2024 Algebra 1 admits: 161 <-- one third of the class

Cheating incidents widespread, after switching to essay lottery admissions


Good. See the thread about taking Geometry in the summer - a stupid idea.

As for your last sentence, could be true. But definitely was true before the admissions change.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:

Merit Test admissions:
Class of 2022 Algebra 1 admits: 19
Class of 2023 Algebra 1 admits: 31
Class of 2024 Algebra 1 admits: 22

Essay lottery admissions:
Class of 2024 Algebra 1 admits: 161 <-- one third of the class

Cheating incidents widespread, after switching to essay lottery admissions


By merit you mean the test people bought advance copies of to help their kids chances?
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:TJ DROPOUTS
(sept - jan)

2021-22
6 asian
4 hispanic
1 white

2020-21
4 asian

2019-20
1 asian
1 hispanic

2018-19
7 asian
1 black
1 hispanic
2 white

2017-18
6 asian


Fast-forward to today in April 2024:

- 130 drop-outs


130 from first year class? How get this number?


#fakenews


Ah - the “equity troll” has found this thread; no, it is not “fake news.”

The class of 2025 admitted 550 students.

Now there are only 441 students in the class 2025. That 441 includes ~15-20 students joining TJ as sophomores .

Simple addition results in:

- 130 students in the class of 2025 went back to their base schools.

This data is available right on FCPS websites, including the school profile site.


The fact is: the revised admission criteria is resulting in kids dropping out at a rate approximately ten times higher than pre-revision TJ admissions.


550 were admitted, or 550 enrolled?


TJ enrolled 541 freshmen in the fall of 2021. There are currently 503 juniors.

Even assuming there were some sophomore admits, the attrition from the original Class of 2025 wouldn’t appear to be anywhere near 130 students.

There are currently 447 juniors. You are right it's not 130, but 103. That's mostly the Algebra1 kids who went back to base school.
Let's hope School Board has the decency to apologize to each drop-off for putting them through this ordeal.


No, dumb ass, there are currently 503 juniors. I was polite before but you keep repeating false information even when corrected. So shut up until you can manage to get your facts straight.


So, 47 dropouts?


That number will include kids whose families moved and left the county as well as kids who returned to their base school.

This sounds like pretty normal attrition for a demanding school in a region where people move a lot.



+1

It's very normal attrition, similar to years prior.


Creating a image with fake data, doesnt alter the fact that 103 dropped, and aggressive admissions of 56 sophomores, brought the net to 47. 103 dropouts is unforeseen.


Not at all fake, just inconvenient to your political narrative.

The data is all here.
https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu

They have always tried to backfill open seats.


Yeah interesting because the if you look at the membership history of what a class at TJ started with September of 9th grade and what they graduated with, It paints a different picture. PP is using offers as a starting point and membership as an ending point. PP should use membership for both starting and ending as that probably more accurately tells how many kids couldnt continue at TJ.

Using those numbers Net Loss for 2025 is 38 while net loss 14 for 2024, and 10 for 2023 and 9 for 2022. I don't think it's something super significant to the overall admissions discussion but it is just another negative datapoint. From a percentage perspective, given the larger class, it still shows greater than 2x increase in students leaving TJ than before the admissions change.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

Merit Test admissions:
Class of 2022 Algebra 1 admits: 19
Class of 2023 Algebra 1 admits: 31
Class of 2024 Algebra 1 admits: 22

Essay lottery admissions:
Class of 2024 Algebra 1 admits: 161 <-- one third of the class

Cheating incidents widespread, after switching to essay lottery admissions


By merit you mean the test people bought advance copies of to help their kids chances?

bought from whom?
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:

Merit Test admissions:
Class of 2022 Algebra 1 admits: 19
Class of 2023 Algebra 1 admits: 31
Class of 2024 Algebra 1 admits: 22

Essay lottery admissions:
Class of 2024 Algebra 1 admits: 161 <-- one third of the class

Cheating incidents widespread, after switching to essay lottery admissions

Of the 161 algebra 1 admits, 103 dropped, but thanks to rapidity of 56 froshmore admissions, mitigated the net to 47 reduced class size, still significantly high compared to previous years.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:TJ DROPOUTS
(sept - jan)

2021-22
6 asian
4 hispanic
1 white

2020-21
4 asian

2019-20
1 asian
1 hispanic

2018-19
7 asian
1 black
1 hispanic
2 white

2017-18
6 asian


Fast-forward to today in April 2024:

- 130 drop-outs


130 from first year class? How get this number?


#fakenews


Ah - the “equity troll” has found this thread; no, it is not “fake news.”

The class of 2025 admitted 550 students.

Now there are only 441 students in the class 2025. That 441 includes ~15-20 students joining TJ as sophomores .

Simple addition results in:

- 130 students in the class of 2025 went back to their base schools.

This data is available right on FCPS websites, including the school profile site.


The fact is: the revised admission criteria is resulting in kids dropping out at a rate approximately ten times higher than pre-revision TJ admissions.


550 were admitted, or 550 enrolled?


TJ enrolled 541 freshmen in the fall of 2021. There are currently 503 juniors.

Even assuming there were some sophomore admits, the attrition from the original Class of 2025 wouldn’t appear to be anywhere near 130 students.

There are currently 447 juniors. You are right it's not 130, but 103. That's mostly the Algebra1 kids who went back to base school.
Let's hope School Board has the decency to apologize to each drop-off for putting them through this ordeal.


No, dumb ass, there are currently 503 juniors. I was polite before but you keep repeating false information even when corrected. So shut up until you can manage to get your facts straight.


So, 47 dropouts?


That number will include kids whose families moved and left the county as well as kids who returned to their base school.

This sounds like pretty normal attrition for a demanding school in a region where people move a lot.



+1

It's very normal attrition, similar to years prior.


Creating a image with fake data, doesnt alter the fact that 103 dropped, and aggressive admissions of 56 sophomores, brought the net to 47. 103 dropouts is unforeseen.


Not at all fake, just inconvenient to your political narrative.

The data is all here.
https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu

They have always tried to backfill open seats.


Yeah interesting because the if you look at the membership history of what a class at TJ started with September of 9th grade and what they graduated with, It paints a different picture. PP is using offers as a starting point and membership as an ending point. PP should use membership for both starting and ending as that probably more accurately tells how many kids couldnt continue at TJ.

Using those numbers Net Loss for 2025 is 38 while net loss 14 for 2024, and 10 for 2023 and 9 for 2022. I don't think it's something super significant to the overall admissions discussion but it is just another negative datapoint. From a percentage perspective, given the larger class, it still shows greater than 2x increase in students leaving TJ than before the admissions change.


I have all of the numbers. Happy to chart it all out.

I was using the # of admits as a starting point because the 130 was based off the # of admits. Something about people stealing seats?

Funny how you start shifting to different numbers when your original point doesn’t hold.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:TJ DROPOUTS
(sept - jan)

2021-22
6 asian
4 hispanic
1 white

2020-21
4 asian

2019-20
1 asian
1 hispanic

2018-19
7 asian
1 black
1 hispanic
2 white

2017-18
6 asian


Fast-forward to today in April 2024:

- 130 drop-outs


130 from first year class? How get this number?


#fakenews


Ah - the “equity troll” has found this thread; no, it is not “fake news.”

The class of 2025 admitted 550 students.

Now there are only 441 students in the class 2025. That 441 includes ~15-20 students joining TJ as sophomores .

Simple addition results in:

- 130 students in the class of 2025 went back to their base schools.


This data is available right on FCPS websites, including the school profile site.


The fact is: the revised admission criteria is resulting in kids dropping out at a rate approximately ten times higher than pre-revision TJ admissions.



So, just to clarify, you don’t want to use this math (^) anymore?

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:TJ DROPOUTS
(sept - jan)

2021-22
6 asian
4 hispanic
1 white

2020-21
4 asian

2019-20
1 asian
1 hispanic

2018-19
7 asian
1 black
1 hispanic
2 white

2017-18
6 asian


Fast-forward to today in April 2024:

- 130 drop-outs


130 from first year class? How get this number?


#fakenews


Ah - the “equity troll” has found this thread; no, it is not “fake news.”

The class of 2025 admitted 550 students.

Now there are only 441 students in the class 2025. That 441 includes ~15-20 students joining TJ as sophomores .

Simple addition results in:

- 130 students in the class of 2025 went back to their base schools.

This data is available right on FCPS websites, including the school profile site.


The fact is: the revised admission criteria is resulting in kids dropping out at a rate approximately ten times higher than pre-revision TJ admissions.


550 were admitted, or 550 enrolled?


TJ enrolled 541 freshmen in the fall of 2021. There are currently 503 juniors.

Even assuming there were some sophomore admits, the attrition from the original Class of 2025 wouldn’t appear to be anywhere near 130 students.

There are currently 447 juniors. You are right it's not 130, but 103. That's mostly the Algebra1 kids who went back to base school.
Let's hope School Board has the decency to apologize to each drop-off for putting them through this ordeal.


No, dumb ass, there are currently 503 juniors. I was polite before but you keep repeating false information even when corrected. So shut up until you can manage to get your facts straight.


So, 47 dropouts?


That number will include kids whose families moved and left the county as well as kids who returned to their base school.

This sounds like pretty normal attrition for a demanding school in a region where people move a lot.



+1

It's very normal attrition, similar to years prior.


Creating a image with fake data, doesnt alter the fact that 103 dropped, and aggressive admissions of 56 sophomores, brought the net to 47. 103 dropouts is unforeseen.


Not at all fake, just inconvenient to your political narrative.

The data is all here.
https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu

They have always tried to backfill open seats.


Yeah interesting because the if you look at the membership history of what a class at TJ started with September of 9th grade and what they graduated with, It paints a different picture. PP is using offers as a starting point and membership as an ending point. PP should use membership for both starting and ending as that probably more accurately tells how many kids couldnt continue at TJ.

Using those numbers Net Loss for 2025 is 38 while net loss 14 for 2024, and 10 for 2023 and 9 for 2022. I don't think it's something super significant to the overall admissions discussion but it is just another negative datapoint. From a percentage perspective, given the larger class, it still shows greater than 2x increase in students leaving TJ than before the admissions change.


I have all of the numbers. Happy to chart it all out.

I was using the # of admits as a starting point because the 130 was based off the # of admits. Something about people stealing seats?

Funny how you start shifting to different numbers when your original point doesn’t hold.

Maybe take a break? Im not PP. They're point about 130 using offers is an inaccurate framing of the issue. Many kids don't start at TJ for a number of reasons. As are people who are piling on your response of that uses offer-based numbers as a starting point.

There was a large spike of kids who couldn't continue after starting at TJ compared to previous years. The rate more than doubled. As you said, the data is all there. I also don't think that fact alone is some big reveal. It's part of a larger trend of metrics that show how the new admission process is producing less desirable academic metrics.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:No and no.

Your post implies that more kids have dropped out and it is because of the new admissions, which might be the case. There are kids who never would have thought about TJ that had a chance to try TJ. Some more might drop out because it is a new school and a new type of program for them. Some of those kids are going to stay and find their groove at TJ. That learning process is a part of education. Guess what, there are kids who apply to all sorts of college that go and drop out, even the Ivies.

How about we stop demonizing 12 and 13 year olds and just let them be kids and figure out what school works best for them?


Sounds like the new DEI bus is stuck in Remedial Math lane.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:No and no.

Your post implies that more kids have dropped out and it is because of the new admissions, which might be the case. There are kids who never would have thought about TJ that had a chance to try TJ. Some more might drop out because it is a new school and a new type of program for them. Some of those kids are going to stay and find their groove at TJ. That learning process is a part of education. Guess what, there are kids who apply to all sorts of college that go and drop out, even the Ivies.

How about we stop demonizing 12 and 13 year olds and just let them be kids and figure out what school works best for them?


Sounds like the new DEI bus is stuck in Remedial Math lane.


Who are you and why do you care?
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:TJ DROPOUTS
(sept - jan)

2021-22
6 asian
4 hispanic
1 white

2020-21
4 asian

2019-20
1 asian
1 hispanic

2018-19
7 asian
1 black
1 hispanic
2 white

2017-18
6 asian


Fast-forward to today in April 2024:

- 130 drop-outs


130 from first year class? How get this number?


#fakenews


Ah - the “equity troll” has found this thread; no, it is not “fake news.”

The class of 2025 admitted 550 students.

Now there are only 441 students in the class 2025. That 441 includes ~15-20 students joining TJ as sophomores .

Simple addition results in:

- 130 students in the class of 2025 went back to their base schools.

This data is available right on FCPS websites, including the school profile site.


The fact is: the revised admission criteria is resulting in kids dropping out at a rate approximately ten times higher than pre-revision TJ admissions.


550 were admitted, or 550 enrolled?


TJ enrolled 541 freshmen in the fall of 2021. There are currently 503 juniors.

Even assuming there were some sophomore admits, the attrition from the original Class of 2025 wouldn’t appear to be anywhere near 130 students.

There are currently 447 juniors. You are right it's not 130, but 103. That's mostly the Algebra1 kids who went back to base school.
Let's hope School Board has the decency to apologize to each drop-off for putting them through this ordeal.


No, dumb ass, there are currently 503 juniors. I was polite before but you keep repeating false information even when corrected. So shut up until you can manage to get your facts straight.


So, 47 dropouts?


That number will include kids whose families moved and left the county as well as kids who returned to their base school.

This sounds like pretty normal attrition for a demanding school in a region where people move a lot.



+1

It's very normal attrition, similar to years prior.


Creating a image with fake data, doesnt alter the fact that 103 dropped, and aggressive admissions of 56 sophomores, brought the net to 47. 103 dropouts is unforeseen.


Not at all fake, just inconvenient to your political narrative.

The data is all here.
https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu

They have always tried to backfill open seats.


Yeah interesting because the if you look at the membership history of what a class at TJ started with September of 9th grade and what they graduated with, It paints a different picture. PP is using offers as a starting point and membership as an ending point. PP should use membership for both starting and ending as that probably more accurately tells how many kids couldnt continue at TJ.

Using those numbers Net Loss for 2025 is 38 while net loss 14 for 2024, and 10 for 2023 and 9 for 2022. I don't think it's something super significant to the overall admissions discussion but it is just another negative datapoint. From a percentage perspective, given the larger class, it still shows greater than 2x increase in students leaving TJ than before the admissions change.


I have all of the numbers. Happy to chart it all out.

I was using the # of admits as a starting point because the 130 was based off the # of admits. Something about people stealing seats?

Funny how you start shifting to different numbers when your original point doesn’t hold.

Maybe take a break? Im not PP. They're point about 130 using offers is an inaccurate framing of the issue. Many kids don't start at TJ for a number of reasons. As are people who are piling on your response of that uses offer-based numbers as a starting point.

There was a large spike of kids who couldn't continue after starting at TJ compared to previous years. The rate more than doubled. As you said, the data is all there. I also don't think that fact alone is some big reveal. It's part of a larger trend of metrics that show how the new admission process is producing less desirable academic metrics.


False

Before the change, there was an average of 3.2% drop out and, after the change, it's 4.1%. Of course, the data will be more meaningful after a few more years, but overall, it's not that far off from previous years. When you take the % of declines it's right on par.

And did the PP ever say where he got the 130? The only class with 441 that I saw was 2024 last year (not 2025). Maybe he read the data incorrectly.

I'll add more data and charts tonight.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:TJ DROPOUTS
(sept - jan)

2021-22
6 asian
4 hispanic
1 white

2020-21
4 asian

2019-20
1 asian
1 hispanic

2018-19
7 asian
1 black
1 hispanic
2 white

2017-18
6 asian


Fast-forward to today in April 2024:

- 130 drop-outs


130 from first year class? How get this number?


#fakenews


Ah - the “equity troll” has found this thread; no, it is not “fake news.”

The class of 2025 admitted 550 students.

Now there are only 441 students in the class 2025. That 441 includes ~15-20 students joining TJ as sophomores .

Simple addition results in:

- 130 students in the class of 2025 went back to their base schools.

This data is available right on FCPS websites, including the school profile site.


The fact is: the revised admission criteria is resulting in kids dropping out at a rate approximately ten times higher than pre-revision TJ admissions.


550 were admitted, or 550 enrolled?


TJ enrolled 541 freshmen in the fall of 2021. There are currently 503 juniors.

Even assuming there were some sophomore admits, the attrition from the original Class of 2025 wouldn’t appear to be anywhere near 130 students.

There are currently 447 juniors. You are right it's not 130, but 103. That's mostly the Algebra1 kids who went back to base school.
Let's hope School Board has the decency to apologize to each drop-off for putting them through this ordeal.


No, dumb ass, there are currently 503 juniors. I was polite before but you keep repeating false information even when corrected. So shut up until you can manage to get your facts straight.


So, 47 dropouts?


That number will include kids whose families moved and left the county as well as kids who returned to their base school.

This sounds like pretty normal attrition for a demanding school in a region where people move a lot.



+1

It's very normal attrition, similar to years prior.


Creating a image with fake data, doesnt alter the fact that 103 dropped, and aggressive admissions of 56 sophomores, brought the net to 47. 103 dropouts is unforeseen.


Not at all fake, just inconvenient to your political narrative.

The data is all here.
https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu

They have always tried to backfill open seats.


Yeah interesting because the if you look at the membership history of what a class at TJ started with September of 9th grade and what they graduated with, It paints a different picture. PP is using offers as a starting point and membership as an ending point. PP should use membership for both starting and ending as that probably more accurately tells how many kids couldnt continue at TJ.

Using those numbers Net Loss for 2025 is 38 while net loss 14 for 2024, and 10 for 2023 and 9 for 2022. I don't think it's something super significant to the overall admissions discussion but it is just another negative datapoint. From a percentage perspective, given the larger class, it still shows greater than 2x increase in students leaving TJ than before the admissions change.


I have all of the numbers. Happy to chart it all out.

I was using the # of admits as a starting point because the 130 was based off the # of admits. Something about people stealing seats?

Funny how you start shifting to different numbers when your original point doesn’t hold.

Maybe take a break? Im not PP. They're point about 130 using offers is an inaccurate framing of the issue. Many kids don't start at TJ for a number of reasons. As are people who are piling on your response of that uses offer-based numbers as a starting point.

There was a large spike of kids who couldn't continue after starting at TJ compared to previous years. The rate more than doubled. As you said, the data is all there. I also don't think that fact alone is some big reveal. It's part of a larger trend of metrics that show how the new admission process is producing less desirable academic metrics.


False

Before the change, there was an average of 3.2% drop out and, after the change, it's 4.1%. Of course, the data will be more meaningful after a few more years, but overall, it's not that far off from previous years. When you take the % of declines it's right on par.

And did the PP ever say where he got the 130? The only class with 441 that I saw was 2024 last year (not 2025). Maybe he read the data incorrectly.

I'll add more data and charts tonight.


Who cares when you put false data on your charts or when you bend over backward to shield the fact that the educrats are dumping down on TJ's quality.
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