Kindergarten lottery strategy

[Anonymous]

I think those stats only reflecr first round lottery applicants. If someone who did not lottery but is IB or a sibling added it post-lottery, they could get in but not be listed.

[Anonymous]

The other thing to keep in mind is that WL movement can change year to year based on the number of kids the school accepts in the initial lottery.

For example, if SWS accepts 6 kids to K in the initial lottery but has less attrition than expected (say, 2 spots), the WL might not move at all. But if they accept 0 kids to K in the initial lottery and have 2 spots due to attrition, the WL would move.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I was surprised at the different rates some schools moved - did not really have to do with their popularity!

SWS moved 30 spots
ITS moved 45 spots
Peabody moved 32 spots
TR - 4th moved 30 spots
Ludlow Taylor moved 20 spots

On the other hand, some schools moved very little!

Van Ness moved FIVE spots only!
Brent moved 16
Lee moved 14

Of course none of this was enough to actually get us in personally, but I think this shows there are decent chances out there.

Note: those school's lists didn't move that many spots YOUR list did. ie, people removed themselves from lists, etc.

^^ Exactly. It doesn't show that there are decent chances.

For K -- by August 20

SWS - 11 offers to the WL
ITS - 13 offers to WL
Peabody - 26
TR 4th - 12
Ludlow Taylor - 8

But doesn't the velocity of movement say something about my chances as well? Because I can't think of why people would be removing themselves from the ITS waitlist faster than the TRY waitlist. It seems like ITS just burned through its waitlist faster (including people getting off of it) compared to TRY, for example.

[Anonymous]

Also, DCPS schools at K and above will ALWAYS move slower. They have to wait and see who shows up on the first day before knowing how many spots are available because in-boundary kids are guaranteed space.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I was surprised at the different rates some schools moved - did not really have to do with their popularity!

SWS moved 30 spots
ITS moved 45 spots
Peabody moved 32 spots
TR - 4th moved 30 spots
Ludlow Taylor moved 20 spots

On the other hand, some schools moved very little!

Van Ness moved FIVE spots only!
Brent moved 16
Lee moved 14

Of course none of this was enough to actually get us in personally, but I think this shows there are decent chances out there.

Note: those school's lists didn't move that many spots YOUR list did. ie, people removed themselves from lists, etc.

^^ Exactly. It doesn't show that there are decent chances.

For K -- by August 20

SWS - 11 offers to the WL
ITS - 13 offers to WL
Peabody - 26
TR 4th - 12
Ludlow Taylor - 8

But doesn't the velocity of movement say something about my chances as well? Because I can't think of why people would be removing themselves from the ITS waitlist faster than the TRY waitlist. It seems like ITS just burned through its waitlist faster (including people getting off of it) compared to TRY, for example.

Velocity of movement varies a ton year to year. And it's impossible to predict.

ITS and TR 4th have 48-50 kids in K.

ITS seems to have anticipated more attrition for 17-18 than TR 4th, because they made 2x more K seats available in round 1. Neither school adds particularly more seats at K, vs PK4 (see https://osse.dc.gov/node/1223876)

To me that says that those people with good numbers who ranked ITS very high probably got in on the first draw. Anyone behind them may have been holding out for their higher ranked schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:ITS only went to 13. How is that "far down?"

Anyhow, I would put Bridges on your list. It's a solid school with a beautiful building.

And yes, put Inspired Teaching on.

Also, Cap City PCS.

D.C. Bilingual if you want Spanish.

You have a good shot at all but ITS. And an okay shot at that. Visit open houses at all and see which fits your family best.

13 for K is actually pretty good. Most high regarded charters might go to 3 if your are lucky for K.

That's not true - K is a grade when there are often kids who move away or have access to their by-right DCPS for the first time (Capitol Hill or WOTP). It depends on how many slots get taken by matched siblings from other grades, but in my experience, there is a decent amount of movement on most waitlists for K and 1st.

But there are only handful of IB schools kids will return too. The numbers for last year indicate about 4 slots at CMI for K and about the same for IT.

[Anonymous]

Cap City had maybe 2-3 open spots this lottery year for K. We had most of those schools listed, a terrible master number etc. We struck out 3 years in a row and moved. Good Luck! I mean that sincerely, not sarcastically.

[Anonymous]

I'd put Breakthrough Montessori on your list.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:DD has struck out two years in a row so we have been at our IB in the Brookland area. It has been pretty much ok, better than expected, but I am obviously looking to get her into a better middle school feeder and somewhere with more on-grade-level peers. We won't have sibling or any other kind of preference anywhere until 1st grade. So I'm asking, what would be some good schools for her to get into for K. I know what schools I like the best, but for the other 12 spots, are there any schools that are expanding, moving to the area, or otherwise especially easy to get into for K? TIA!

What Brookland school are you in? How is it? I have toured Burroughs, Noyes and Bunker Hill and I have noticed that the class population doesn't represent the neighborhood. Is your DD class diverse? Do the kids live in Brookland? How are the parents in the class? I don't know ANYONE in Brookland that sends their kids to DC public schools. I knew one family, but they switched to charter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DD has struck out two years in a row so we have been at our IB in the Brookland area. It has been pretty much ok, better than expected, but I am obviously looking to get her into a better middle school feeder and somewhere with more on-grade-level peers. We won't have sibling or any other kind of preference anywhere until 1st grade. So I'm asking, what would be some good schools for her to get into for K. I know what schools I like the best, but for the other 12 spots, are there any schools that are expanding, moving to the area, or otherwise especially easy to get into for K? TIA!

What Brookland school are you in? How is it? I have toured Burroughs, Noyes and Bunker Hill and I have noticed that the class population doesn't represent the neighborhood. Is your DD class diverse? Do the kids live in Brookland? How are the parents in the class? I don't know ANYONE in Brookland that sends their kids to DC public schools. I knew one family, but they switched to charter.

Not gonna say the school because it isn't the topic of the thread. I care about the school and would not want to negatively impact it with public complaining. Yes, the class is diverse, and the parents are very nice. There are some kids who live in Brookland, others not, but as there is room for OOB kids, they have every right to be there. The school is making progess, these things just take time.