Scary reaction to flu shot in Loudoun...

[Anonymous]

But the chances of your child having a reaction to the flu shot are also way way way way a thousand times way low. Some of us would rather take our chances with that and avoid the flu all together.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:"Well, if you had a good point, you muddied it by showing ignorance of the risk of dying from influenza. It is as likely right now as dying in a car accident. I bet you still buckle your children into their car seats, though."

Not the poster you are quoting, but this is not exactly the same thing. Not putting my child in a car is not practical. I have to go to work, and we can't afford a nanny, so she goes to daycare. I have to take her to the pediatrician when she gets sick, etc. Not to mention I don't think it would it be healthy to lock a child in a house for life.

She doesn't HAVE to get the flu. If I can prevent her from getting it or lower her odds of getting it I will. When I compare the risks of her getting the flu with the risk of her having a bad reaction to the shot, the numbers favor us getting the flu shot.

I don't disagree with any of that. I do not think it was my point to disagree with that logic. My disagreement is with the poster's estimate that the risk of death from influenza is so small. That is misleading and I think leads other people to believe that it is OK to do nothing to protect themselves. The risk this year to young adults and children is about as great as the risk of dying in a car accident. We take precautions there because we consider that risk small but worthy of concern. So we buy car seats and put airbags in our cars and set speed limits. Statistically, skipping the vaccine is as risky as ditching the car seat when you put your children in the car.

This is from a Washington Post article; the link was in another H1N1 thread. The risk of dying is very, very low.

"Although it remains unclear how frequently the virus makes people seriously ill, recent reports from Mexico, Canada, the United States, Australia and New Zealand indicate that perhaps 1 percent of patients who get infected require hospitalization. Between 12 to 30 percent of those hospitalized need intensive care, and 15 to 40 percent of those in intensive care die."

Let's put numbers on this. The average number of people who die from influenza every year is right around 36,000. The estimates for the number who will die from H1N1 are 30,000 to 90,000. The low end is perfectly reasonable based on the seasonal influenza average. The difference between H1N1 is that it is going to kill young adults and children instead of the elderly.

The average number of people who die in car accidents each year in the U.S. is around 40,000.

The number of people who die in a given year from diabetes is around 70,000.

So you decide whether that's enough risk to take precautions. Do you buckle your child into a car seat? Do you try to eat right? If so, why? Of course you do, because you don't want your child to have diabetes or die in a car accident. The good news is that you can dramatically reduce your odds of dying from getting the shot.

Not everyone will get the virus. Of those who do, 15 to 40 percent of 12 to 30 percent of one percent will die. So way, way, way less than 1 percent of those who get sick enough to go to the hospital will die. That's a very, very, very, very low percentage, no matter how you slice it. (The chances of your child dying from H1N1 are way, way, way, way, way, way, way, way, way less than 1 percent.)

Why are people so afraid of doing math here?

The chances of death this year from H1N1 are 30,000 to 90,000 in 300 million, all people being equal. That's .01% to .03% You may not consider that to be significant, but the chance of dying in a car accident is .013%

If you don't care about that, fine. But the average person cares about not dying in a car accident, enough that they take precautions.