Netanyahu Shows Trump Who is Boss

In April, I wrote a blog post in which I said that Israel has veto power over any peace agreement between the United States and Iran. This veto power exists because "nobody, least of all Iran, can trust agreements with the U.S. because there is no faith in the U.S.'s ability to control Israel and no expectation that Israel will stop its attacks." My theory was put to the test over the past couple of days and, so far, has been proven correct. An agreement between the U.S. and Iran has been put in danger because of Israel's refusal to halt its attacks against both Lebanon and Iran. Cult leader, convicted felon, and failed President Donald Trump has proven powerless to rein in Israel's assaults.

One problem facing the U.S. with regard to Iran is that the U.S. negotiating team is being led by two amateurs who are more interested in real estate deals than a peace accord. Neither Steve Witkoff nor Jared Kushner are experienced diplomats and neither is particularly knowledgeable about the Middle East. Both tend to see the solution as being little more than an investment opportunity. As such, they are prone to not understanding what is being negotiated. The Iranian side, on the other hand, consists of experienced negotiators who have an intricate understanding of things. This likely explains the basis of the current ceasefire which established an understanding that has been creating significant problems for the United States.

The current ceasefire began on April 7 with an announcement by Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Sharif wrote that Iran and the U.S., along with their allies, had agreed "to an immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere". The inclusion of Lebanon was a victory for the Iranians, who wanted to link the two conflicts. On the other hand, this was a disaster for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu has been promising Israelis that he would solve the problem of security for Israel's north, which has been threatened by Hezbollah. Contrary to Sharif's announcement, Netanyahu argued, with U.S. support, that the ceasefire did not include Lebanon. Netanyahu promised to continue attacking his northern neighbor. To prove his point, Netanyahu launched devastating attacks against Beirut that killed nearly 300 people.

The U.S. engaged in frantic diplomatic activity attempting to arrange a ceasefire between the Lebanese and Israeli governments. The issue with such an agreement is that Hezbollah would not be a party to it. Israeli troops have occupied a large swath of southern Lebanon, and Israeli leaders have suggested that those troops have no intention of leaving. The idea that Israel will engage in a long-term occupation of southern Lebanon is completely unacceptable to Hezbollah, and the organization is unlikely to agree to any ceasefire that leaves Israeli soldiers in Lebanon. This created an intractable situation. Hezbollah will not stop attacking Israel until the Israeli troops are withdrawn from Lebanon, and Israel will not stop attacking Lebanon while it is being attacked by Hezbollah. The Israeli attacks, in turn, have put the U.S.-Iran ceasefire in danger.

The solution appears to have been an informal understanding between the U.S. and Iran that Hezbollah and Israel could go on fighting as long as Israel did not attack Beirut. Nevertheless, late last month, Netanyahu ordered the evacuation of neighborhoods in Beirut's southern suburbs in preparation for an Israeli attack. The Iranians threatened to immediately halt negotiations with the United States. This led to a profanity-filled call between Trump and Netanyahu in which Trump dropped multiple f-bombs and called Netanyahu "crazy." In response, Netanyahu agreed to halt the attack on Beirut.

This turned out to only be a temporary delay. Hezbollah has been having success with fiber optic drones that are controlled via lengthy fiber optic cables. Because these drones don't rely on radio transmissions, the Israelis cannot jam them. As such, Israel is having a very difficult time defending against them, and there has been a steady stream of dead and wounded Israeli soldiers returning from Lebanon. Israel is a country that psychologically only knows one response, which is escalation. Therefore, Netanyahu could not restrain himself from attacking Beirut and launched such an attack yesterday. That attack violated a clear red line set by the Iranians, and Iran responded by firing missiles at Israel.

Netanyahu was sending several messages with his attack on Beirut. He was telling Hezbollah that if they continued their attacks, he would attack their headquarters in Beirut regardless of what Trump or the Iranians had to say about it. He was telling the Iranians that he did not respect their red line and, perhaps intentionally, was willing to provoke them. To Trump, Netanyahu was saying, "F' me? No F' you." Trump likes to talk tough, but Netanyahu has shown that Trump is nothing but a paper tiger.

Trump appears to have either not understood or ignored Netanyahu's message to him. He worked the press trying to prevent things from spiraling out of control. Talking to the Financial Times, Trump said that the attacks would not impact the deal that he was trying to make with Iran. Moreover, he said that Netanyahu would have no choice other than to accept any deal that Trump made:

“He won’t have any choice,” Trump told the FT in a telephone interview. “I call the shots. I call all the shots. He [Netanyahu] doesn’t call the shots.”

This ignores that Netanyahu had just attacked Beirut against Trump's explicit request. Clearly, Netanyahu was still calling shots.

The Iranian missile attack on Israel put Netanyahu in a bind. As I said above, almost every Israeli appears to be united behind the belief that force must be met by even greater force. This conviction spans the entire political spectrum. Israel’s national security minister, the right-wing former terrorist, Itamar Ben-Gvir tweeted, "Tonight Tehran must burn!" Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said that Israel must not make a "weak or symbolic response," but rather "act with strength and effectiveness." Opposition leader Yair Golan accused Netanyahu of being "weak."

On the other hand, Trump turned to his most trusted stenographer, Barak Ravid, to send a message to Netanyahu to refrain from an attack that might continue the escalation. Trump told Ravid, "I am going to call Bibi right now and tell him not to retaliate. Each of them had their fun. Israel had its strike, and Iran had its strike. We don't need another one." But again, Netanyahu showed Trump his middle finger and launched attacks on targets throughout Iran.

Trump took to Truth Social to plead with both sides to stop the fighting. First "truthing", "Israel and Iran must immediately stop ‘shooting.’ President DONALD J. TRUMP." He later followed up with a second post saying:

Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on “Peace” are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a “Final Deal” is reached. Things should move quickly. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Both Iran and Netanyahu agreed to end the current round of fighting, though it does not appear that anything has been resolved. Israel and Hezbollah will continue to fight in Lebanon. Iran has linked the resolution of the war to ending the conflict in Lebanon and, if anything, has become even more determined in that demand. Any hope that Iran may have had that Trump might restrain Netanyahu has been lost. As a result, any chance for a peace agreement is probably even further off than before the latest round of attacks.

At the moment, Trump and the Iranians appear to be engaged in a game of economic chicken, waiting to see whose economy will collapse first. Netanyahu doesn't want a deal at all and will continue to literally blow negotiations up with attacks on Lebanon. It is now clear that Trump either can't or won't control Netanyahu, regardless of the number of f-bombs he is willing to drop. As such, we will probably see this same series of events repeated in the very near future.