Anonymous wrote:OP here - not sure which way I'm leaning. One of the comments on Au Pair Mom struck a chord with me: "There is a reason why the program is 1 year."
Our changeover time is really awkward - right after Christmas, before New Year. Our family likes to ski and I'm uncomfortable leaving a new (less than 2 months in country) AP on her own for more than a night or so, and for expense and other reasons, don't want to bring AP skiing with us. That means our family ski trip has to take place during christmas, and we have to be back by the 29/30 for AP arrival. A start date 1-2 weeks later doesn't make much difference and then will leave us with a gap.
Also, the pool of German applicants (we want German for language reasons) is small for this time of year. I'm not sure how much to make of that. We've found pretty good applicants with this weird timing. The hardest thing is having an AP start in the cold/inside winter months. I think it generally takes a bit longer to connect with other APs.
One possibility that you may have not considered - match with a transition who has about 6 months left on her visa. It serves the purpose of getting you into the Summer match mode, plus she won't be "new" to the US and you can feel better about leaving her for your ski trip.