Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

I posted this. Accidentally clicked NM as red, please disregard.

I agree with this map except I think AZ stays red. I just hope Mark Kelly wins.

This seems most likely to me, swapping AZ and NM here.

We need PA.

If we get Iowa and NE2, we probably get Ohio, too.

I read an article saying OH is the one to watch on election night. If it goes blue, indicates a Biden win.

Anonymous wrote:Polling released today suggest IA, SC, OH are in play for Biden. So for the map posted at 20:36 above, that would be (+AZ) 336 to 232. Texas is in play as well. If that turns, it gets epic.

Alas...

I would love to see Texas go to Biden because it would force Republicans to go back to normal good governance instead of this strong man pseudo-dictatorship.

Anonymous wrote:I'm in PA and so nervous. These maps cheer me up but I worry about what's to come.

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/philadelphia-pennsylvania-early-voting-offices-open-20200929.html

I do not envy voters in PA. I will be shocked if there are no ugly scenes at polling stations.

Polling released today suggest IA, SC, OH are in play for Biden. So for the map posted at 20:36 above, that would be (+AZ) 336 to 232. Texas is in play as well. If that turns, it gets epic.

Alas...

Anonymous wrote:And Florida -- and I'm simply not convinced DeSantis will allow that.

DeSantis is forcing the state to open totally; I shudder to think of the kind of death and sickness that will descend upon that state in the next few months. I don’t think he can guarantee Florida for Trump.

I'm in PA and so nervous. These maps cheer me up but I worry about what's to come.

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/philadelphia-pennsylvania-early-voting-offices-open-20200929.html

I think Biden realistically has a spread from about a 278 worst case scenario to a feasible ceiling of 351.

I think the Dems will make Texas competitive--already have--but I'm not comfortable putting it ultimately in the win category for them. I'm also not sure if they can actually pull off a Georgia win.

Since the switch happened (aka Southern states stopped going Democratic) in about 1968, Georgia has gone blue 3 times:

1976: D+36 <-- Carter
1980: D+15 <-- Carter
1992: D+1 <-- Clinton

Both are obviously from the South; Carter is obviously from GA.

Texas has gone blue once since 1968:

1976: D+4, Carter

These two states have NEVER gone blue without a candidate from the south. Clinton got Texas close (R+3 in 92 and R+5 in 96) but he couldn't pull off the win.

So while it's not impossible, it would be an unprecedented feat for a guy from PA/Delaware to win those states.

Anonymous wrote:NC may turn blue because Dems winning Senate and Governors seats for sure.

most recent senate poll has cunningham at 48% and tillis at 38%. cooper has consistently been leading dan forest.

if NC goes blue, i think there needs to be a reframing of the down ballot candidates not carrying presidential tickets logic (the current logic is that this only happens in reverse).

And Florida -- and I'm simply not convinced DeSantis will allow that.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

This is my dream map. A total wipeout that Trump can't contest and that will trigger the inevitable GOP abdication -- "I never really supported Trump, just the policies blah blah blah."

This map is Biden winning everything state that is in play. Would love for Biden to break 400 and humiliate Trump. That would require Texas, Georgia, and Ohio.

Anonymous wrote:

This is my dream map. A total wipeout that Trump can't contest and that will trigger the inevitable GOP abdication -- "I never really supported Trump, just the policies blah blah blah."

Anonymous wrote:What would be the maps where Trump wins? (I am asking just because I need to gird myself...)

2016 repeat, basically. If PA and MI go Biden and WI goes Trump, they might be in a 269-269 situation (if Biden wins all of ME and Trump wins all of NE). WI is the closest of the 3 midwestern swing states. If the rest of the map stays the way it was in 2016, the winner needs to get all 3 of those states. If D’s can get AZ, they have a little more breathing room and can lose any one of them (but not two or more) and still win.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I posted this. Accidentally clicked NM as red, please disregard.

I agree with this map except I think AZ stays red. I just hope Mark Kelly wins.

This seems most likely to me, swapping AZ and NM here.

We need PA.

If we get Iowa and NE2, we probably get Ohio, too.