Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Since the numbers are trending worse, I don't think you should put that much energy into this idea.

Maryland numbers are going up. We flattened for a little bit and now our numbers are going up again. Death toll is thankfully down, but that is a delayed reflection of the state of health.

This is a byproduct of more testing, not more cases.

People are having tests as a requirement for elective surgeries. These should be 0s. They aren't feeling sick, etc. The test positivity rate isn't that helpful if it is being overwhelmed with people who wouldn't have been tested in March, April, or May. I wish they'd break out the numbers -- "Number being tested because they feel sick" vs. "All others." I'd want to see "All others" near 0. Right now, we don't know how many are in the "testing because symptomic" group vs. "testing for any reason" group.

Someone suggested for Arlington Public Schools that having DL for all students the first two weeks would be a way to have a quarantine after the Labor Day holiday weekend. That is a very valid point in perhaps reducing chances for early spread. Also, it would help MCPS or any system and parents to see how DL is operating according to “the proposed plan” or not. It would give building level folks a chance to work out issues and via parent feedback perhaps see which teachers needed more direct assistance in using the technology. Everyone needs to be able to function in DL at any time given the many unknown aspects of spread in the months ahead.

Just wanted to mention I'm the teacher who has posted a lot on this thread and it is now day 7 since I was tested for COVID and still no results.

So I'm home in isolation (still).. Symptoms all better now. But I'm really really not sure how this is going to work once schools are back in session. If I stay home because I might have COVID for a whole week based on reporting my symptoms? I will be tempted NOT to report my symptoms. And even in a good year there's usually no sub for me half the time, and other teachers have to take my kids in their classrooms. So how's that going to work?

Without two day testing at least, any test-isolate-contact spread plan is NOT going to work especially once you throw schools into the mix.

Anonymous wrote:The real spike will come after the schools open.

And that will prompt the crisis we all worked so hard to prevent since March.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/maryland-coronavirus-cases.html

Cases are rising in all counties in MD

This doesn't show what you think it shows. It shows a decline in cases.

Not in the past two weeks.

I take it back. Montgomery County's rate of new cases has been stable for the past two weeks. So I will give you that.

I would say it looks like MOCO by itself is exactly where Belgium was on May 18th. New cases per million per day of about 25 and test positivity rate of less than 5%

That's when Belgium reopened schools for a fraction of students, with great precautions; with distance learning for most, and only 2 days per week.

So if MOCO can keep up this great rate and not have it rise at all, I think distance learning 3 days in person learning for 2 days for a fraction of students is achievable.

Except half of MoCo is at the beach (DE, OBX, FL, SC, NJ, and even Cape Cod). And some are in Aruba or other plane-involved destinations. Let’s see what the rates are when everyone returns home.

Oh goody. Another "just wait until after Memorial Day, 4th it July parties etc..." post. Challenge accepted. We haven't had a spike from any of these predictions so far.

Very few people had Memorial Day parties or travel plans.

I don’t know about you, but everyone I know has gone out of state to the beach—with many flying to FL, CA, and the Caribbean.

If we’re going back to school and work in September, why not go on vacation?

The real spike will come after the schools open.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/maryland-coronavirus-cases.html

Cases are rising in all counties in MD

This doesn't show what you think it shows. It shows a decline in cases.

Not in the past two weeks.

I take it back. Montgomery County's rate of new cases has been stable for the past two weeks. So I will give you that.

I would say it looks like MOCO by itself is exactly where Belgium was on May 18th. New cases per million per day of about 25 and test positivity rate of less than 5%

That's when Belgium reopened schools for a fraction of students, with great precautions; with distance learning for most, and only 2 days per week.

So if MOCO can keep up this great rate and not have it rise at all, I think distance learning 3 days in person learning for 2 days for a fraction of students is achievable.

Except half of MoCo is at the beach (DE, OBX, FL, SC, NJ, and even Cape Cod). And some are in Aruba or other plane-involved destinations. Let’s see what the rates are when everyone returns home.

Oh goody. Another "just wait until after Memorial Day, 4th it July parties etc..." post. Challenge accepted. We haven't had a spike from any of these predictions so far.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/maryland-coronavirus-cases.html

Cases are rising in all counties in MD

This doesn't show what you think it shows. It shows a decline in cases.

Not in the past two weeks.

I take it back. Montgomery County's rate of new cases has been stable for the past two weeks. So I will give you that.

I would say it looks like MOCO by itself is exactly where Belgium was on May 18th. New cases per million per day of about 25 and test positivity rate of less than 5%

That's when Belgium reopened schools for a fraction of students, with great precautions; with distance learning for most, and only 2 days per week.

So if MOCO can keep up this great rate and not have it rise at all, I think distance learning 3 days in person learning for 2 days for a fraction of students is achievable.

Except half of MoCo is at the beach (DE, OBX, FL, SC, NJ, and even Cape Cod). And some are in Aruba or other plane-involved destinations. Let’s see what the rates are when everyone returns home.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I focus on:

# of new cases
# hospitalized
# of deaths

I check the #s each day to see if they go up or down or hold steady.

# of new cases went up today. I wonder if all the summer vacations and July 4th parties will prompt an uptick?

They went up by 5 based on yesterday but the test positivity rate went down. Do you believe that is a statistically significant increase?

Test positivity rate went down because tons of healthy people are getting tested before they fly to places like Aruba that require proof of a negative test.

Don’t you know anyone traveling abroad for vacation? I do. And their entire family must be tested within days of their flight. Since the Caribbean and other destinations just reopened, I say let’s give it a few weeks to see if there’s an uptick.

I also track the # of cases in my zip code and neighboring zip code (where I grocery shop, etc). Those are going up, too. My takeaway was s that more people in my community are getting sick. And, more people testing positive in my county/state increases the odds of spread. YMMV.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/maryland-coronavirus-cases.html

Cases are rising in all counties in MD

This doesn't show what you think it shows. It shows a decline in cases.

Not in the past two weeks.

You have to look at the cases versus the test positivity rate versus the number of tests given. Number of positive cases by itself means nothing when the testing capacity is going up. Use your brain.

I'm the woman who has been waiting 6 days for a test result so excuse me for not believing that "testing capacity is going up!"

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/maryland-coronavirus-cases.html

Cases are rising in all counties in MD

This doesn't show what you think it shows. It shows a decline in cases.

Not in the past two weeks.

I take it back. Montgomery County's rate of new cases has been stable for the past two weeks. So I will give you that.

I would say it looks like MOCO by itself is exactly where Belgium was on May 18th. New cases per million per day of about 25 and test positivity rate of less than 5%

That's when Belgium reopened schools for a fraction of students, with great precautions; with distance learning for most, and only 2 days per week.

So if MOCO can keep up this great rate and not have it rise at all, I think distance learning 3 days in person learning for 2 days for a fraction of students is achievable.

Anonymous wrote:I focus on:

# of new cases
# hospitalized
# of deaths

I check the #s each day to see if they go up or down or hold steady.

# of new cases went up today. I wonder if all the summer vacations and July 4th parties will prompt an uptick?

They went up by 5 based on yesterday but the test positivity rate went down. Do you believe that is a statistically significant increase?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/maryland-coronavirus-cases.html

Cases are rising in all counties in MD

This doesn't show what you think it shows. It shows a decline in cases.

Not in the past two weeks.

You have to look at the cases versus the test positivity rate versus the number of tests given. Number of positive cases by itself means nothing when the testing capacity is going up. Use your brain.

I focus on:

# of new cases
# hospitalized
# of deaths

I check the #s each day to see if they go up or down or hold steady.

# of new cases went up today. I wonder if all the summer vacations and July 4th parties will prompt an uptick?