Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This puts Florida and the Senate in Florida, in play, IMO

I live in Florida - and if this is a blue wave year overall, then yeah this could really do something

why do people keep saying this? Florida never does the right THING!

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This puts Florida and the Senate in Florida, in play, IMO

I live in Florida - and if this is a blue wave year overall, then yeah this could really do something

Anonymous wrote:This puts Florida and the Senate in Florida, in play, IMO

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Pollsters can no longer predict what the sample of actual voters looks like. They make estimates based on past voting behavior, but I think way too many once in a lifetime events have happened in the past decade (pandemic & deaths of lots of older Republican voters, overturn of Roe, Jan 6 coup attempt, etc).

If you can’t accurately predict who will show up to vote, there’s no way for your poll to be accurate.

It wouldn’t surprise me if women outvote men 55-45 in the November elections nationwide. If that’s the margin, then Republicans get absolutely crushed.

Not with the electoral college but maybe with the un important popular vote

If they use this logic in the general, it will become know as Trump's Folly. The MAGA movement has continually discounted the effect that the overturning of RvW and state pushes against family planning is having on their election results. The overturning of RvW, the banning of abortion of in many states, the attack on IVF have all changed election results without having nearly as big of an impact on polls. The polls are deceptive because many people, especially many women and young voters, who normally do not vote, are coming out to vote in record numbers.

Since the fall of RvW, Democrats have won nearly all elections where the abortion and fertility issues have been on the soapbox. From the state constitutional amendments in red Kansas and red Ohio, to the election of Democrats in deep red territory, like Andy Beshear in Kentucky to Marilyn Lands in Alabama. And also the purple areas like Virginia moving blue (both houses of the legistature went from leaning red to leaning blue while governor Glenn Youngkin had abortion restrictions on his platform).

Keep burying your head in the sand, but you will see more purple areas voting blue and more red areas going purple, with mixed statewide results. Family planning issues will be the keystone issue this year, just as it was in 2022 and 2023.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not entirely. Some polls use up to 20 or 30% cell phone lines. But still, considering that the majority of people use cell phones and a minority use land lines, the polling is really inaccurate for likely voters. Many of those who answer land lines will not actually vote in the election. Those that do vote and answer their land lines lean far more conservative than actual demographics of likely voters, so the polling data is extremely skewed.

Anyone with a brain ignores calls from unknown numbers regardless of landline or mobile.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not entirely. Some polls use up to 20 or 30% cell phone lines. But still, considering that the majority of people use cell phones and a minority use land lines, the polling is really inaccurate for likely voters. Many of those who answer land lines will not actually vote in the election. Those that do vote and answer their land lines lean far more conservative than actual demographics of likely voters, so the polling data is extremely skewed.

Fascinating how polls are often pretty accurate. Guess you're just in denial.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not entirely. Some polls use up to 20 or 30% cell phone lines. But still, considering that the majority of people use cell phones and a minority use land lines, the polling is really inaccurate for likely voters. Many of those who answer land lines will not actually vote in the election. Those that do vote and answer their land lines lean far more conservative than actual demographics of likely voters, so the polling data is extremely skewed.

Fascinating how polls are often pretty accurate. Guess you're just in denial.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not entirely. Some polls use up to 20 or 30% cell phone lines. But still, considering that the majority of people use cell phones and a minority use land lines, the polling is really inaccurate for likely voters. Many of those who answer land lines will not actually vote in the election. Those that do vote and answer their land lines lean far more conservative than actual demographics of likely voters, so the polling data is extremely skewed.

Fascinating how polls are often pretty accurate. Guess you're just in denial.

Anonymous wrote:Not entirely. Some polls use up to 20 or 30% cell phone lines. But still, considering that the majority of people use cell phones and a minority use land lines, the polling is really inaccurate for likely voters. Many of those who answer land lines will not actually vote in the election. Those that do vote and answer their land lines lean far more conservative than actual demographics of likely voters, so the polling data is extremely skewed.

Anonymous wrote:Not entirely. Some polls use up to 20 or 30% cell phone lines. But still, considering that the majority of people use cell phones and a minority use land lines, the polling is really inaccurate for likely voters. Many of those who answer land lines will not actually vote in the election. Those that do vote and answer their land lines lean far more conservative than actual demographics of likely voters, so the polling data is extremely skewed.