jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:TL;DR for carjackings in DC, there's a 21% chance of police actually doing something, and a 5% chance of it actually resulting in conviction.
Does anyone think those numbers are acceptable?
I don't think those numbers are acceptable. I also don't think that fixating on whether the minimum sentence is 4 or 7 years makes a lot of sense given how few perpetrators make it that far.
well then why does the code rewrite fixate on changing the maximum? answer: to reduce actual sentences. which yes, will result in more carjacking.
https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/research-publications/2022/20220621_Recidivsm-SentLength.pdf
The maximum in the revision is 24 years. Judges have rarely given that much so it is really immaterial. What do you think is the proper maximum?
jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:TL;DR for carjackings in DC, there's a 21% chance of police actually doing something, and a 5% chance of it actually resulting in conviction.
Does anyone think those numbers are acceptable?
I don't think those numbers are acceptable. I also don't think that fixating on whether the minimum sentence is 4 or 7 years makes a lot of sense given how few perpetrators make it that far.
Anonymous wrote:jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:TL;DR for carjackings in DC, there's a 21% chance of police actually doing something, and a 5% chance of it actually resulting in conviction.
Does anyone think those numbers are acceptable?
I don't think those numbers are acceptable. I also don't think that fixating on whether the minimum sentence is 4 or 7 years makes a lot of sense given how few perpetrators make it that far.
well then why does the code rewrite fixate on changing the maximum? answer: to reduce actual sentences. which yes, will result in more carjacking.
https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/research-publications/2022/20220621_Recidivsm-SentLength.pdf
jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:TL;DR for carjackings in DC, there's a 21% chance of police actually doing something, and a 5% chance of it actually resulting in conviction.
Does anyone think those numbers are acceptable?
I don't think those numbers are acceptable. I also don't think that fixating on whether the minimum sentence is 4 or 7 years makes a lot of sense given how few perpetrators make it that far.
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I don’t understand how folks can both support progressive criminal justice reformers like Charles Allen, but are mystified when crime goes up. Or how they can lament gentrification and vocally oppose it, but also live in a beautiful condo that costs $4,000 per month. It just seems like complete cognitive dissonance. Gentrification is literally the reason this city is better these days. It’s become more prosperous, with better restaurants. It’s safer, or it was until the push for criminal justice reform from the last few years which is clearly making us less safe. I mean our council pushed Biden into the corner with this bill. Had the council not removed the two move controversial parts (jury trials for misdeamors and messing with car jacking laws) it may have passed.
This is just a rant. I’m tired, as someone literally from the center of this city, that we have such progressive members. I’m pretty liberal, but there are so many examples of council leniency on crime, most probably from a push for equitable outcomes or whatever, that they just foster an environment of increased crime. I wish we had a strong ob crime and incarceration set of council members. Read the room. Chicago, NY and now DC. People want safety. Vote for your own safety. It’s nonsense.
Re: criminal justice reform:
George Floyd's murder took place when violent crime was relatively low. Protecting against it wasn't really on most people's radar, save for very low income communities of color. And honestly, they don't have a voice like many others do. And justice reform feels good and hypothetically makes sense. No reasonable person wants to unduly punish people. Most people want the punishment to fit the crime.
What progressive reformers got wrong, however, is that you can't upend the system without downstream effects, most of which will disproportionately impact those most vulnerable communities. So when you provide all the supports to the people committing crimes, you completely overlook the victims. And people take advantage of that. Add to it the huge influx of even more guns into our society, both from increased manufacturer, fear purchases, ghost guns, and the erosion of gun safety laws, and you have a deadly mix.
Guess who suffers the resulting increased violence? Lower income communities of color.
Good criminal justice reform would have been more measured, based on evidence, and would have worked really hard to avoid unintended consequences as much as possible.
It did not. It was governance by twitter. Whatever sounded catchy got the support. And here we are.
Extreme right wing politicians/activists do this too. We just happen to live in a very progressive region.
Anonymous wrote:TL;DR for carjackings in DC, there's a 21% chance of police actually doing something, and a 5% chance of it actually resulting in conviction.
Does anyone think those numbers are acceptable?
Anonymous wrote:jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:I don’t think anyone here can speak to the will of the people with authority. The quality of like didn’t improve as expected and slid further since the election.
To know the will of the people put it to the referendum. How many support the 2 laws? How many support the statehood no matter what? How many would rather not be taxed?
Puerto Rico people get to vote. In DC we assume.
DC had a referendum on statehood. It passed with 86% support:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Washington,_D.C.,_statehood_referendum
As for the criminal code revision, how many even understand it? Most of the media has completely misrepresented it. I'd be willing to bet that if voters actually understood the changes, it would have overwhelming support. Unfortunately, we live in a time where "if you are explaining, you are losing" is accepted as a truism. Supporters of the revisions are stuck explaining because so much misinformation has been spread.
For instance, how many are aware the the revision includes new gun offenses and has several enhancements for gun violations that can add prison time to a sentence? Those will be lost if Congress blocks the bill.
But Charles Allen has *repeatedly* said that such enhancements do nothing to lower the crime rate. He said it yesterday on WAMU. So why did he include that? Nothing he does makes a lick of sense. Please, explain it to me, because you clearly think you have all the answers.
Charles Allen can speak for himself and those of you with Charles Allen obsessions should probably look into a more constructive hobby. I personally don't think that longer jail terms have an impact on crime. But those of you who do should be pretty happy with the revision because it provides plenty of jail time.
If, as you say, the bill actually lengthens jail terms (which in your eyes doesn't work), then shouldn't you be against it?
No, I accept that if you hold out for perfection, you end up with nothing. Because the Mayor and a few others decided perfection was necessary, we are all getting nothing.
So this mess is all Bowser's fault now? The same Bowser that has been banned from the House floor or whatever cockamamie resolution the mouth-breather Republican chuds passed?
Now they're doing Bowser a favor? You're gonna have to show your work there.
The fact remains that the Council could have passed a bill that was 90-95 percent supported and simply not simply added every DC Justice Lab demand, which is *exactly* what happened (and anyone who shakes their fist at DFER for its shady funding should be extremely curious/furious about the DCJL's funding). Instead, we're back to square one because Charles Allen and his supporters on the Council forget every single rule about politics and now look like complete rubes.
Democrats, including Biden, have been using Bowser's veto to justify the motion for disapproval. Here is Biden's statement (with bolding added):
"I support D.C. Statehood and home-rule – but I don’t support some of the changes D.C. Council put forward over the Mayor’s objections – such as lowering penalties for carjackings,
Because, as you say, Bowser was not happy with 5% less than perfection, we get nothing.
Moreover, Bowser was one of the leading voices in spreading a misleading understanding of the bill.
The notion that the feds are doing Bowser's bidding is comically misinformed. Bad policy and inept politics got us here.
The inept politics is entirely on Bowser's part. The Republicans are acting like Republicans. You can't expect more from them than that. But the Democrats believe they were given a green light by Bowser. Biden's own justification is that Bowser objected to the legislation
.
Considering she got the outcome she wanted, I would not be calling Bowser's politics "inept." It's hilarious that you clearly think Allen did a good job here. He's a dismal failure.
Bowser opposed the bill but when Congress stepped in, she pivoted to "Congress needs to mind its own business and this is why DC needs home rule." Weird position to be in.
Some posters have insinuated that the bill proposed some changes that would help prosecutors go after violent criminals and gun crimes, but haven't provided details. Maybe it's true, maybe it isn't. The people defending the bill have completely failed at giving a detailed, reasoned response. Meanwhile they are getting their lunch eaten over the glaring omission of mandatory minimums for violent and repeat offenders, along with the possibility that the courts may be overwhelmed with jury trials for misdemeanors.
Why not just take another crack at it and fix those obvious flaws?
This is probably the best objective review of the criminal code revision. Read it and see what you think then:
https://dcist.com/story/23/01/27/does-dc-criminal-code-overhaul-reduce-penalties-violent-offenses
Interesting article - but it exposes a whole host of problems in our system.
They cite a carjacking study by the Sentencing Commission - https://scdc.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/scdc/release_content/attachments/Carjacking_Fast_Facts.pdf
That report says 97% of carjacking counts received a prison sentence.
Meanwhile the MPD dashboard shows there were 660 carjackings during the Sentencing Commission's study period. https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/carjacking
97% received sentences. But that's of the 34 carjackers who actually got to the point of being prosecuted for sentencing. What about the other 630 carjackings that happened?
And, it's only gotten worse since December 2020. How will the bill improve the number of prosecutions leading to sentencing?
And what about transparency? There is very little transparency from AUSA, have heard that they don't respond to FOIA requests on prosecution stats. Council should address transparency with their crime bill, given the huge disconnect between DC crime stats and sentencing stats which reveals that apparently only a small fraction of crimes and arrests result in anything.
And, allowing for a "racial discrimination" rationale for dropping mandatory minimums for minor offenses and first offenders, but it does not excuse away violent offenses and repeat offenses. Allowing violence and repeat offenses plays into the soft racism of low expectations. I still think we need mandatory minimums for violent and repeat offenders - and the low side of national average on minimums per the article is 5 years. Council should put mandatory minimum language in for violent and repeat offenders.
Anonymous wrote:I don’t understand how folks can both support progressive criminal justice reformers like Charles Allen, but are mystified when crime goes up. Or how they can lament gentrification and vocally oppose it, but also live in a beautiful condo that costs $4,000 per month. It just seems like complete cognitive dissonance. Gentrification is literally the reason this city is better these days. It’s become more prosperous, with better restaurants. It’s safer, or it was until the push for criminal justice reform from the last few years which is clearly making us less safe. I mean our council pushed Biden into the corner with this bill. Had the council not removed the two move controversial parts (jury trials for misdeamors and messing with car jacking laws) it may have passed.
This is just a rant. I’m tired, as someone literally from the center of this city, that we have such progressive members. I’m pretty liberal, but there are so many examples of council leniency on crime, most probably from a push for equitable outcomes or whatever, that they just foster an environment of increased crime. I wish we had a strong ob crime and incarceration set of council members. Read the room. Chicago, NY and now DC. People want safety. Vote for your own safety. It’s nonsense.
jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:I don’t think anyone here can speak to the will of the people with authority. The quality of like didn’t improve as expected and slid further since the election.
To know the will of the people put it to the referendum. How many support the 2 laws? How many support the statehood no matter what? How many would rather not be taxed?
Puerto Rico people get to vote. In DC we assume.
DC had a referendum on statehood. It passed with 86% support:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Washington,_D.C.,_statehood_referendum
As for the criminal code revision, how many even understand it? Most of the media has completely misrepresented it. I'd be willing to bet that if voters actually understood the changes, it would have overwhelming support. Unfortunately, we live in a time where "if you are explaining, you are losing" is accepted as a truism. Supporters of the revisions are stuck explaining because so much misinformation has been spread.
For instance, how many are aware the the revision includes new gun offenses and has several enhancements for gun violations that can add prison time to a sentence? Those will be lost if Congress blocks the bill.
But Charles Allen has *repeatedly* said that such enhancements do nothing to lower the crime rate. He said it yesterday on WAMU. So why did he include that? Nothing he does makes a lick of sense. Please, explain it to me, because you clearly think you have all the answers.
Charles Allen can speak for himself and those of you with Charles Allen obsessions should probably look into a more constructive hobby. I personally don't think that longer jail terms have an impact on crime. But those of you who do should be pretty happy with the revision because it provides plenty of jail time.
If, as you say, the bill actually lengthens jail terms (which in your eyes doesn't work), then shouldn't you be against it?
No, I accept that if you hold out for perfection, you end up with nothing. Because the Mayor and a few others decided perfection was necessary, we are all getting nothing.
So this mess is all Bowser's fault now? The same Bowser that has been banned from the House floor or whatever cockamamie resolution the mouth-breather Republican chuds passed?
Now they're doing Bowser a favor? You're gonna have to show your work there.
The fact remains that the Council could have passed a bill that was 90-95 percent supported and simply not simply added every DC Justice Lab demand, which is *exactly* what happened (and anyone who shakes their fist at DFER for its shady funding should be extremely curious/furious about the DCJL's funding). Instead, we're back to square one because Charles Allen and his supporters on the Council forget every single rule about politics and now look like complete rubes.
Democrats, including Biden, have been using Bowser's veto to justify the motion for disapproval. Here is Biden's statement (with bolding added):
"I support D.C. Statehood and home-rule – but I don’t support some of the changes D.C. Council put forward over the Mayor’s objections – such as lowering penalties for carjackings,
Because, as you say, Bowser was not happy with 5% less than perfection, we get nothing.
Moreover, Bowser was one of the leading voices in spreading a misleading understanding of the bill.
The notion that the feds are doing Bowser's bidding is comically misinformed. Bad policy and inept politics got us here.
The inept politics is entirely on Bowser's part. The Republicans are acting like Republicans. You can't expect more from them than that. But the Democrats believe they were given a green light by Bowser. Biden's own justification is that Bowser objected to the legislation
.
Considering she got the outcome she wanted, I would not be calling Bowser's politics "inept." It's hilarious that you clearly think Allen did a good job here. He's a dismal failure.
Bowser opposed the bill but when Congress stepped in, she pivoted to "Congress needs to mind its own business and this is why DC needs home rule." Weird position to be in.
Some posters have insinuated that the bill proposed some changes that would help prosecutors go after violent criminals and gun crimes, but haven't provided details. Maybe it's true, maybe it isn't. The people defending the bill have completely failed at giving a detailed, reasoned response. Meanwhile they are getting their lunch eaten over the glaring omission of mandatory minimums for violent and repeat offenders, along with the possibility that the courts may be overwhelmed with jury trials for misdemeanors.
Why not just take another crack at it and fix those obvious flaws?
This is probably the best objective review of the criminal code revision. Read it and see what you think then:
https://dcist.com/story/23/01/27/does-dc-criminal-code-overhaul-reduce-penalties-violent-offenses
jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:I don’t think anyone here can speak to the will of the people with authority. The quality of like didn’t improve as expected and slid further since the election.
To know the will of the people put it to the referendum. How many support the 2 laws? How many support the statehood no matter what? How many would rather not be taxed?
Puerto Rico people get to vote. In DC we assume.
DC had a referendum on statehood. It passed with 86% support:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Washington,_D.C.,_statehood_referendum
As for the criminal code revision, how many even understand it? Most of the media has completely misrepresented it. I'd be willing to bet that if voters actually understood the changes, it would have overwhelming support. Unfortunately, we live in a time where "if you are explaining, you are losing" is accepted as a truism. Supporters of the revisions are stuck explaining because so much misinformation has been spread.
For instance, how many are aware the the revision includes new gun offenses and has several enhancements for gun violations that can add prison time to a sentence? Those will be lost if Congress blocks the bill.
But Charles Allen has *repeatedly* said that such enhancements do nothing to lower the crime rate. He said it yesterday on WAMU. So why did he include that? Nothing he does makes a lick of sense. Please, explain it to me, because you clearly think you have all the answers.
Charles Allen can speak for himself and those of you with Charles Allen obsessions should probably look into a more constructive hobby. I personally don't think that longer jail terms have an impact on crime. But those of you who do should be pretty happy with the revision because it provides plenty of jail time.
Not for 12 year old carjackers, though?
Respectfully, you are wrong on this issue. Many of us moderate Democrats/crime concerned citizens and families will vote with our feet and move to the burbs, including my family. This will cause the city’s revenue to continue to plummet. I guess that’s all well and good with you?
Why would you leave? We are stuck with the laws you do desperately wanted to protect.
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:I don’t think anyone here can speak to the will of the people with authority. The quality of like didn’t improve as expected and slid further since the election.
To know the will of the people put it to the referendum. How many support the 2 laws? How many support the statehood no matter what? How many would rather not be taxed?
Puerto Rico people get to vote. In DC we assume.
DC had a referendum on statehood. It passed with 86% support:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Washington,_D.C.,_statehood_referendum
As for the criminal code revision, how many even understand it? Most of the media has completely misrepresented it. I'd be willing to bet that if voters actually understood the changes, it would have overwhelming support. Unfortunately, we live in a time where "if you are explaining, you are losing" is accepted as a truism. Supporters of the revisions are stuck explaining because so much misinformation has been spread.
For instance, how many are aware the the revision includes new gun offenses and has several enhancements for gun violations that can add prison time to a sentence? Those will be lost if Congress blocks the bill.
But Charles Allen has *repeatedly* said that such enhancements do nothing to lower the crime rate. He said it yesterday on WAMU. So why did he include that? Nothing he does makes a lick of sense. Please, explain it to me, because you clearly think you have all the answers.
Charles Allen can speak for himself and those of you with Charles Allen obsessions should probably look into a more constructive hobby. I personally don't think that longer jail terms have an impact on crime. But those of you who do should be pretty happy with the revision because it provides plenty of jail time.
If, as you say, the bill actually lengthens jail terms (which in your eyes doesn't work), then shouldn't you be against it?
No, I accept that if you hold out for perfection, you end up with nothing. Because the Mayor and a few others decided perfection was necessary, we are all getting nothing.
So this mess is all Bowser's fault now? The same Bowser that has been banned from the House floor or whatever cockamamie resolution the mouth-breather Republican chuds passed?
Now they're doing Bowser a favor? You're gonna have to show your work there.
The fact remains that the Council could have passed a bill that was 90-95 percent supported and simply not simply added every DC Justice Lab demand, which is *exactly* what happened (and anyone who shakes their fist at DFER for its shady funding should be extremely curious/furious about the DCJL's funding). Instead, we're back to square one because Charles Allen and his supporters on the Council forget every single rule about politics and now look like complete rubes.
Democrats, including Biden, have been using Bowser's veto to justify the motion for disapproval. Here is Biden's statement (with bolding added):
"I support D.C. Statehood and home-rule – but I don’t support some of the changes D.C. Council put forward over the Mayor’s objections – such as lowering penalties for carjackings,
Because, as you say, Bowser was not happy with 5% less than perfection, we get nothing.
Moreover, Bowser was one of the leading voices in spreading a misleading understanding of the bill.
The notion that the feds are doing Bowser's bidding is comically misinformed. Bad policy and inept politics got us here.
The inept politics is entirely on Bowser's part. The Republicans are acting like Republicans. You can't expect more from them than that. But the Democrats believe they were given a green light by Bowser. Biden's own justification is that Bowser objected to the legislation
.
Considering she got the outcome she wanted, I would not be calling Bowser's politics "inept." It's hilarious that you clearly think Allen did a good job here. He's a dismal failure.
Bowser opposed the bill but when Congress stepped in, she pivoted to "Congress needs to mind its own business and this is why DC needs home rule." Weird position to be in.
Some posters have insinuated that the bill proposed some changes that would help prosecutors go after violent criminals and gun crimes, but haven't provided details. Maybe it's true, maybe it isn't. The people defending the bill have completely failed at giving a detailed, reasoned response. Meanwhile they are getting their lunch eaten over the glaring omission of mandatory minimums for violent and repeat offenders, along with the possibility that the courts may be overwhelmed with jury trials for misdemeanors.
Why not just take another crack at it and fix those obvious flaws?
Anonymous wrote:jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:jsteele wrote:Anonymous wrote:I don’t think anyone here can speak to the will of the people with authority. The quality of like didn’t improve as expected and slid further since the election.
To know the will of the people put it to the referendum. How many support the 2 laws? How many support the statehood no matter what? How many would rather not be taxed?
Puerto Rico people get to vote. In DC we assume.
DC had a referendum on statehood. It passed with 86% support:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Washington,_D.C.,_statehood_referendum
As for the criminal code revision, how many even understand it? Most of the media has completely misrepresented it. I'd be willing to bet that if voters actually understood the changes, it would have overwhelming support. Unfortunately, we live in a time where "if you are explaining, you are losing" is accepted as a truism. Supporters of the revisions are stuck explaining because so much misinformation has been spread.
For instance, how many are aware the the revision includes new gun offenses and has several enhancements for gun violations that can add prison time to a sentence? Those will be lost if Congress blocks the bill.
But Charles Allen has *repeatedly* said that such enhancements do nothing to lower the crime rate. He said it yesterday on WAMU. So why did he include that? Nothing he does makes a lick of sense. Please, explain it to me, because you clearly think you have all the answers.
Charles Allen can speak for himself and those of you with Charles Allen obsessions should probably look into a more constructive hobby. I personally don't think that longer jail terms have an impact on crime. But those of you who do should be pretty happy with the revision because it provides plenty of jail time.
Not for 12 year old carjackers, though?
Respectfully, you are wrong on this issue. Many of us moderate Democrats/crime concerned citizens and families will vote with our feet and move to the burbs, including my family. This will cause the city’s revenue to continue to plummet. I guess that’s all well and good with you?