Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I want to hear more about "severe rationing" that's claimed here.

It appears the rationing order was rescinded due to an “error.” There is supposed to be a 49 day supply of petrol as of five days ago, as if there is somewhere to which to drive.

In other words, whoever posted that severe rationing was imposed on civilians has lied?

Take it up with media reporting pronouncements by the Russian goon squad leader. You’re welcome.

https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/crimean-occupation-government-introduces-rationing-cancels-it-in-an-hour

No, it's much funner taking it up with a moron mindlessly posting whatever she finds without a modicum of critical thinking to see if it's true.

Let me add to your humor then.

"Russian fuel shipments to troops fighting in Ukraine last month hit the highest level since the invasion began."
"A report from Bloomberg said Wednesday fuel deliveries to troops reached nearly 220,000 tons in September."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-fuel-shipments-troops-fighting-170154531.html

Conventional wisdom says this is the fuel necessary to support 300,000 new troops. Even if this was fuel meant for a new push deep into Ukraine, I think the Kerch Bridge damage may have changed those plans. Stockpiling fuel could also be due to the Ukrainian military's effectiveness at cutting off and destroying Russian resupply efforts. It now takes much more fuel to transport supplies by truck further from the front lines than it did a few months ago (although that distance is shrinking with all the recent Ukrainian territorial gains).

"Repairs to the bridge between the annexed Crimean peninsula and southern Russia, which was damaged in an explosion last Saturday, are to be finished by July 2023, a document published on the Russian government's website said."
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/crimea-bridge-repairs-be-finished-by-july-2023-russian-government-document-2022-10-14/

My guess is this could be disinformation. They may wish to conduct a Winter counter-offensive to catch the Ukrainian's off-guard. However, if the bridge is out for at least 60-days, I think it's immaterial. Whether Crimea has 8 or 48 days of fuel won't change the necessity for Russian troops to retreat once they run out of fuel and ammunition and panic en masse. Since Russia is pulling out the senior FSB officials, it is more likely their defense will collapse once the line troops realize the people shooting deserters in the back are without leadership. In the meantime, Russia will likely attempt to transport as much fuel by truck and ferry to stockpile as much supplies as possible.

300,000 thousand conscripts does sound formidable. The game changer here is that the 300,000 new troops aren't trained. I suspect the Russian soldier that drove his armored vehicle directly into an anti-tank mine laid out of the road was either a completely exhausted veteran or a completely untrained conscript who couldn't even recognize what an anti-tank mine looked like. Many of the well-rested veteran Russian troops are in Crimea, who may not be getting sufficient supplies over the winter months.

Things look grim for Russia in Ukraine right now.

Lol - I watched that Russian drive over the land mine like 5 times.
Too funny.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I want to hear more about "severe rationing" that's claimed here.

It appears the rationing order was rescinded due to an “error.” There is supposed to be a 49 day supply of petrol as of five days ago, as if there is somewhere to which to drive.

In other words, whoever posted that severe rationing was imposed on civilians has lied?

Take it up with media reporting pronouncements by the Russian goon squad leader. You’re welcome.

https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/crimean-occupation-government-introduces-rationing-cancels-it-in-an-hour

No, it's much funner taking it up with a moron mindlessly posting whatever she finds without a modicum of critical thinking to see if it's true.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I want to hear more about "severe rationing" that's claimed here.

It appears the rationing order was rescinded due to an “error.” There is supposed to be a 49 day supply of petrol as of five days ago, as if there is somewhere to which to drive.

In other words, whoever posted that severe rationing was imposed on civilians has lied?

Take it up with media reporting pronouncements by the Russian goon squad leader. You’re welcome.

https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/crimean-occupation-government-introduces-rationing-cancels-it-in-an-hour

Either it's true and Russia has re-established supplies by somehow bypassing the Kerch Bridge, or they're trying to suppress panic. I think it is plausibly the latter.

"Russian war tank drives over clearly-visible landmines, blown to pieces: Watch"
https://www.livemint.com/news/russian-war-tank-drives-over-clearly-visible-landmines-blown-to-pieces-watch-11665663171431.html

"Russian doctors and medical workers have been handed letters from authorities telling them not to leave the country, according to local news outlets."
"St. Petersburg's healthcare committee told hospital employees in a letter that they should not leave the country for work-related trips for "security reasons," Russia's state-run news agency Tass reported."
"Medical workers and doctors were also told that travel in a personal capacity would require permission from a city governor, and if approved, would only be permitted to CIS countries."
"Nurses and doctors were urged to sign "a paper not to leave the Russian Federation, including the CIS countries," local news outlet Fontanka reported."
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-bans-medics-doctors-leaving-country-mobilization-1751488

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I want to hear more about "severe rationing" that's claimed here.

It appears the rationing order was rescinded due to an “error.” There is supposed to be a 49 day supply of petrol as of five days ago, as if there is somewhere to which to drive.

In other words, whoever posted that severe rationing was imposed on civilians has lied?

Take it up with media reporting pronouncements by the Russian goon squad leader. You’re welcome.

https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/crimean-occupation-government-introduces-rationing-cancels-it-in-an-hour

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I want to hear more about "severe rationing" that's claimed here.

It appears the rationing order was rescinded due to an “error.” There is supposed to be a 49 day supply of petrol as of five days ago, as if there is somewhere to which to drive.

In other words, whoever posted that severe rationing was imposed on civilians has lied?

Ukraine poised to sieze control over most of Kherson west of the Dnipro River in the next 10 days. Russian forces digging defensive anti tank trenches and installing dragon teeth concrete obstacles. Crimea will be cutoff. Watch for mass evacuations and desertions from annexed territories.

Anonymous wrote:I want to hear more about "severe rationing" that's claimed here.

It appears the rationing order was rescinded due to an “error.” There is supposed to be a 49 day supply of petrol as of five days ago, as if there is somewhere to which to drive.

I want to hear more about "severe rationing" that's claimed here.

Anonymous wrote:
“Today’s imagery shows repairs in progress on both the rail line of the Crimea Bridge as well as on damaged sections of the road/vehicle bridge span,”
https://news.yahoo.com/maxar-shows-satellite-images-damage-113000562.html


"gov’t agrees to evacuate Kherson residents after plea from Moscow-installed governor"
"“We suggested that all residents of the Kherson region, if they wish, to protect themselves from the consequences of missile strikes … go to other regions,” he said, advising people to “leave with their children”."
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/13/russia-to-evacuate-kherson-residents-as-ukrainian-forces-advance

"We were told to retreat, everyone got confused. Who’s going where, with whom. There was a lot of activity, a real meat grinder."
https://news.yahoo.com/pure-cannon-fodder-bbc-deaths-171420331.html

"Retreating Russian troops are arming Ukraine with modern T-90 tanks"
https://news.yahoo.com/retreating-russian-troops-arming-ukraine-192448906.html

"'Everything has collapsed': Russia's draft tanks small businesses"
https://news.yahoo.com/everything-collapsed-russias-draft-tanks-034801120.html

New recruits on the frontlines in Svatov, Luhansk "left Moscow 11 days ago, how many times did you shoot already? Once, three bullet cartridges"
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2022/10/13/russian-recruits-video-ukraine-training-ebof-vpx.cnn

"Thousands flee russia to avoid fighting in Ukraine War"
https://news.yahoo.com/thousands-flee-russia-avoid-fighting-140717216.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

“Friend and colleague of my close friends. In his youth, he served in the Semyonovsky regiment (this is where you need to march). Zero combat experience. He was sent to the front almost a few days later. He died heroically on October 10. Military leaders, now is not the time to lie. You shouldn’t lie at all, and now it’s a crime.” -Deputy Editor-in-Chief of the propaganda RT Natalya Loseva
https://russianfreepress.com/2022/10/13/in-ukraine-a-mobilized-official-from-the-moscow-city-hall-died/

???

“Today’s imagery shows repairs in progress on both the rail line of the Crimea Bridge as well as on damaged sections of the road/vehicle bridge span,”
https://news.yahoo.com/maxar-shows-satellite-images-damage-113000562.html


"gov’t agrees to evacuate Kherson residents after plea from Moscow-installed governor"
"“We suggested that all residents of the Kherson region, if they wish, to protect themselves from the consequences of missile strikes … go to other regions,” he said, advising people to “leave with their children”."
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/13/russia-to-evacuate-kherson-residents-as-ukrainian-forces-advance

"We were told to retreat, everyone got confused. Who’s going where, with whom. There was a lot of activity, a real meat grinder."
https://news.yahoo.com/pure-cannon-fodder-bbc-deaths-171420331.html

"Retreating Russian troops are arming Ukraine with modern T-90 tanks"
https://news.yahoo.com/retreating-russian-troops-arming-ukraine-192448906.html

"'Everything has collapsed': Russia's draft tanks small businesses"
https://news.yahoo.com/everything-collapsed-russias-draft-tanks-034801120.html

New recruits on the frontlines in Svatov, Luhansk "left Moscow 11 days ago, how many times did you shoot already? Once, three bullet cartridges"
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2022/10/13/russian-recruits-video-ukraine-training-ebof-vpx.cnn

"Thousands flee russia to avoid fighting in Ukraine War"
https://news.yahoo.com/thousands-flee-russia-avoid-fighting-140717216.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

“Friend and colleague of my close friends. In his youth, he served in the Semyonovsky regiment (this is where you need to march). Zero combat experience. He was sent to the front almost a few days later. He died heroically on October 10. Military leaders, now is not the time to lie. You shouldn’t lie at all, and now it’s a crime.” -Deputy Editor-in-Chief of the propaganda RT Natalya Loseva
https://russianfreepress.com/2022/10/13/in-ukraine-a-mobilized-official-from-the-moscow-city-hall-died/

Anonymous wrote:The truck has been identified. The truck owner has been identified. The driver has been identified. The claim has been made that the IED was concealed in a shipment of polyethylene transshipped ftom Odessa.

https://www.npr.org/2022/10/12/1128338004/crimea-kerch-bridge-explosion-arrests-ukraine-denies-involvement

Ukraine is exploiting any uncertainties about the attack by assigning blsme on internal conflicts within Russia.

The insistence by some that this attack — while an impressive accomplishment — involved something more complex than a truck bomb seems fantastical and contrary to the limited photographic and physical evidence available. Pointless speculation. The most salient point is there are hundreds of lorries stranded at a defunct airport facility and surrounding roads in Kerch needed to sustain the Russian war of aggression while awaiting ferry transport. The situation is operationally unsustainable for Crimea as severe rationing measures for the civilian population have been imposed.

I don't think the explosion is particularly complex and the only real speculation in my post has been the absence of discussion if this was a suicide bomber.

And fwiw, NPR's report from today is not a definitive as what you cite from yesterday:

https://www.npr.org/2022/10/13/1128625322/crimea-bridge-attack-theories

Credible theories abound in Ukraine and abroad about who is responsible for the Oct. 8 attack and how they did it. But, says Andrew Barr, an impact dynamics researcher at the University of Sheffield, "Despite all of the publicly available photos and videos, it's quite difficult to be certain about this.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The truck has been identified. The truck owner has been identified. The driver has been identified. The claim has been made that the IED was concealed in a shipment of polyethylene transshipped ftom Odessa.

https://www.npr.org/2022/10/12/1128338004/crimea-kerch-bridge-explosion-arrests-ukraine-denies-involvement

Ukraine is exploiting any uncertainties about the attack by assigning blsme on internal conflicts within Russia.

The insistence by some that this attack — while an impressive accomplishment — involved something more complex than a truck bomb seems fantastical and contrary to the limited photographic and physical evidence available. Pointless speculation. The most salient point is there are hundreds of lorries stranded at a defunct airport facility and surrounding roads in Kerch needed to sustain the Russian war of aggression while awaiting ferry transport. The situation is operationally unsustainable for Crimea as severe rationing measures for the civilian population have been imposed.

What rationing measures?

Yeah, why severe rationing if the damage was only “slight”?

What rationing measures? Where is the evidence?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The truck has been identified. The truck owner has been identified. The driver has been identified. The claim has been made that the IED was concealed in a shipment of polyethylene transshipped ftom Odessa.

https://www.npr.org/2022/10/12/1128338004/crimea-kerch-bridge-explosion-arrests-ukraine-denies-involvement

Ukraine is exploiting any uncertainties about the attack by assigning blsme on internal conflicts within Russia.

The insistence by some that this attack — while an impressive accomplishment — involved something more complex than a truck bomb seems fantastical and contrary to the limited photographic and physical evidence available. Pointless speculation. The most salient point is there are hundreds of lorries stranded at a defunct airport facility and surrounding roads in Kerch needed to sustain the Russian war of aggression while awaiting ferry transport. The situation is operationally unsustainable for Crimea as severe rationing measures for the civilian population have been imposed.

What rationing measures?

Yeah, why severe rationing if the damage was only “slight”?

Anonymous wrote:The truck has been identified. The truck owner has been identified. The driver has been identified. The claim has been made that the IED was concealed in a shipment of polyethylene transshipped ftom Odessa.

https://www.npr.org/2022/10/12/1128338004/crimea-kerch-bridge-explosion-arrests-ukraine-denies-involvement

Ukraine is exploiting any uncertainties about the attack by assigning blsme on internal conflicts within Russia.

The insistence by some that this attack — while an impressive accomplishment — involved something more complex than a truck bomb seems fantastical and contrary to the limited photographic and physical evidence available. Pointless speculation. The most salient point is there are hundreds of lorries stranded at a defunct airport facility and surrounding roads in Kerch needed to sustain the Russian war of aggression while awaiting ferry transport. The situation is operationally unsustainable for Crimea as severe rationing measures for the civilian population have been imposed.

What rationing measures?