Thanks, PPs. Good news.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Analysis: Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout CNN

Democratic and liberal aligned groups have put out 17 House polls taken in April or later. Republican aligned groups have put out 0. That's a very bad ratio for Republicans.

I wonder what their polls said about Kanye entering the race

Ops, I think he missed the deadline to run as an independent LOL

Please say more.

(1) It's too late for him to appear on the ballot in 6 states --
North Carolina, which required Independent candidates to register by March 3
Texas, which required Independent candidates to register by May 11
New York, which required Independent candidates to register by May 26
Maine, which required Independent candidates to register by June 1
New Mexico, which required candidates to register by June 25
Indiana, which required candidates to register by June 30

https://www.businessinsider.com/too-late-for-kanye-west-to-run-for-president-2020-7

(2) He only has a couple of weeks to get enough signatures to appear on these states: Florida, Michigan, Oklahoma, and South Carolina

(3) Ditto Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and West Virginia, which have July deadlines

He can always run as write-in

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Analysis: Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout CNN

Democratic and liberal aligned groups have put out 17 House polls taken in April or later. Republican aligned groups have put out 0. That's a very bad ratio for Republicans.

I wonder what their polls said about Kanye entering the race

Ops, I think he missed the deadline to run as an independent LOL

Please say more.

Not PP but go here https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates and scroll down to “independent candidate ballot access requirements.” And keep in mind that it’s really hard right now to get signatures on a petition.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/05/politics/polls-july-analysis/index.html

A new Monmouth University poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a 53% to 41% lead over President Donald Trump.

The average live interview poll conducted over the last month has Biden ahead by a similar 11-point margin.
What's the point: Usually, this is the point where someone like myself says we have four months to go until the election and polls are a snapshot in time. Both of those statements are true, but they obscure an important fact.


Polls taken around Independence Day in an election year are actually pretty highly correlated with the November results in incumbent contests. That means Trump is in a lot of trouble.

Take a look at the 13 incumbent elections dating all the way back to 1940. Usually going all the way back in time will lead you to find a lot of volatile campaigns, as more modern ones tend to be more steady.
Yet, since 1940, the final result differs from the polls at this point by an average of just 7 points. The median difference is only about 4.5 points.

These should be quite worrisome for Trump given he's already down double-digits, and there's no guarantee any polling miss would benefit him.
Indeed, we can translate past polling to give us odds about the current election. At least 8-in-10 to 9-in-10 times based solely on the horserace polling, Biden would be expected to take more votes in the fall.
More troublesome for Trump: no one in an incumbent presidential election has been polling above 50% at this point like Biden and gone on to lose.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Analysis: Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout CNN

Democratic and liberal aligned groups have put out 17 House polls taken in April or later. Republican aligned groups have put out 0. That's a very bad ratio for Republicans.

I wonder what their polls said about Kanye entering the race

Ops, I think he missed the deadline to run as an independent LOL

Please say more.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Analysis: Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout CNN

Democratic and liberal aligned groups have put out 17 House polls taken in April or later. Republican aligned groups have put out 0. That's a very bad ratio for Republicans.

I wonder what their polls said about Kanye entering the race

Ops, I think he missed the deadline to run as an independent LOL

Anonymous wrote:Analysis: Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout CNN

Democratic and liberal aligned groups have put out 17 House polls taken in April or later. Republican aligned groups have put out 0. That's a very bad ratio for Republicans.

I wonder what their polls said about Kanye entering the race

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You don’t have to just hope! Give time and/or money to get out the vote efforts if you can.

Can you recommend the best orgs to donate to?

You could adopt a state - give to the state races, give to the rep and senatorial races.

Or if you have a specific cause that really gets your goat, give to that as much as you can. GOTV, working against voter suppression, or Native rights, etc.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You don’t have to just hope! Give time and/or money to get out the vote efforts if you can.

Can you recommend the best orgs to donate to?

A friend who worked for Obama in 2008 advises giving money directly to candidates. So you could give to Biden and to Senate candidates.

+1. I hate to say this, but don't ever give to the DNC. Suddenly you will be on 20 different begging lists and you will never, ever, get them to stop barraging you. I know several people who have had this experience.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You don’t have to just hope! Give time and/or money to get out the vote efforts if you can.

Can you recommend the best orgs to donate to?

A friend who worked for Obama in 2008 advises giving money directly to candidates. So you could give to Biden and to Senate candidates.

Anonymous wrote:You don’t have to just hope! Give time and/or money to get out the vote efforts if you can.

Can you recommend the best orgs to donate to?

You don’t have to just hope! Give time and/or money to get out the vote efforts if you can.

Anonymous wrote:Yup. ^^

“Perhaps, it's not surprising then that when one party puts out a lot more internal polls than normal, it is good for their side. Parties tend to release good polling when they have it. Since 2004, there has been a near perfect correlation (+0.96 on a scale from -1 to +1) between the share of partisan polls released by the Democrats and the November results.

Right now, Democrats and liberal groups are releasing a lot more surveys than Republicans, which suggests the public polling showing Democrats doing well is backed up by what the parties are seeing in their own numbers.”

Interesting.

We can only hope that enough Americans vote to overwhelm predictable GOP cheating.

Yup. ^^

“Perhaps, it's not surprising then that when one party puts out a lot more internal polls than normal, it is good for their side. Parties tend to release good polling when they have it. Since 2004, there has been a near perfect correlation (+0.96 on a scale from -1 to +1) between the share of partisan polls released by the Democrats and the November results.

Right now, Democrats and liberal groups are releasing a lot more surveys than Republicans, which suggests the public polling showing Democrats doing well is backed up by what the parties are seeing in their own numbers.”

Anonymous wrote:Analysis: Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout CNN

Democratic and liberal aligned groups have put out 17 House polls taken in April or later. Republican aligned groups have put out 0. That's a very bad ratio for Republicans.

Wait. Is this because they don’t want to publish their results?