Anonymous wrote:Ukraine has the population, will, and backing to win.

It has also proven it can outlast and outfight the RA.

Russia’s losses are unsustainable, while Ukraine’s are not. I am not just referring to equipment (although Russia cannot replace its lost tanks/planes missiles, while Ukraine’s supplies of tanks / IVFs etc. increase daily ).

As to combat losses of soldiers, WW1 France is a good analogy.

France 1914: pop 39.6M. KIA over 4.3 years: 1.4M, or about 320,500 per year every year. Total % of male population per year, all ages :1.6%

Ukraine 2022: pop 43.8M. KIA over 1 year: 50K? 75K? Official figures are not released. Total of male population per year, all ages: to 0.22% to 0.34%.

Ukraine is taking essentially 1/5th to 1/7th the casualty rate that France took every year for 4.3 years, and at the end of that 4.3 years the French Army was objectively stronger than it was in 1914 thanks to added capabilities and tactics.

It is also relevant the French were fighting against being subjugated, while the Ukrainians are fighting against being exterminated.

There are plenty of ground-level interviews that show the average Ukrainian knows the stakes. Ukraine will fight on because they must. Study the military history of Israel for comparison, where an objectively smaller, less-equipped military nevertheless prevailed over much larger forces and against all odds.

Having studied Russia’s repeated, overt, statements of their genocidal intentions toward Ukraine, this isn’t just rhetoric. Russia absolutely will murder millions of Ukrainians if they win. They’ve done it before and they say they will do it again (and that is not even considering their intended cultural genocide, which is currently underway in some Oblasts).

Ukraine can suffer these losses far longer than Russia can keep throwing mobiks at them.

It is not that Russia will run out of mobiks, but rather, Russia is losing because of poor and deteriorating morale, broken, antiquated logistics, lack of training, crippling economic sanctions, and domestic production issues. Russia can’t possibly solve these critical issues in the necessary timeframe.

Russia is facing a coalition of forces with more than 20 times their GDP. This military conflict can only end one way. And Putin has steadfastly refused at this point to negotiate.

Rest assured: Russia will lose this war.

The only open question is if Russia survives this, or breaks up entirely.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t know why anyone thought that Putin would ever give up. We’ve spent billions of dollars for nothing when we could have worked on infrastructure.

At least Putin isn’t indiscriminately killing women and children like Netanyahu but he still will do what it takes to win.

Putin’a forces have killed women and children and raped women and kidnapped children.

Anonymous wrote:I still don't understand at all why some believe that Trump's election results in an automatic Russian victory? From what I see, Ukraine is still in a good position. Yes. It is demoralizing for Ukraine. Yes. Trump can lift sanctions on Russia in January, boosting Russia's economy. Yes. Russians can take additional territory. Yes. There is a scenario where everyone in Ukraine could one day capitulate and lay down their arms and put their hands up and say "you win, I give up".

Then what?

Russia is on a trajectory where I don't see any possible road that returns to normalcy. That inflection point passed a few months ago. Even if the Russian's "win" militarily and have all sanctions lifted, they will need to pay salaries for troops occupying Ukraine for years to come, but that means young Russian males not working in the Russian economy for years to come. Already central heating is breaking down in major cities and it's not even mid-winter. If you don't know, it's too impractical and expensive to heat large buildings in Russia individually, so in true Communist fashion, they rely upon superhot water pumped at high pressure into massive pipes. There have been cases of Russian children literally cooked by trying to cross these water breaches. Lifting sanctions won't help put food on the table for average Russian citizens this winter. It would be too little too late. The Russian Central Bank interest rates are already at 21%, with speculation it could jump to 25% in December's meeting. The official claim is that inflation is less than 9%, however, independent estimates are far higher than that (at least double). Plus, the Rouble is crashing. Why does this matter? Remember that the Russian Central Bank is not technically a true FIAT currency, since the Russian Central Bank sets it's own Rouble exchange rates. I would watch to see if Russia starts dumping Sovergn Fund assets or large amounts of precious metals in December to avoid domestic panic until January.

"Rouble lost one-third of value vs dollar since early August"
"the rouble weakened beyond 110 to the U.S. dollar"
"The central bank said it had decided not to buy foreign currency on the domestic market from Nov. 28 until the end of the year, but to defer these purchases until 2025."
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/russian-rouble-down-by-one-quarter-since-early-august-2024-11-27/

Although I can see a plus 6 to 12 months if Trump lifts sanctions in January? The wide difference has to do with other factors that are neither in Putin or Zelensky or Trump's control. Watch if anything happens with Solovyov between January and March. That should be telling. The real question is whether Trump will use the economic leverage against Russia? Ex. obtain cheap Russian oil to boost the US economy at Russia's expense, or does Russia play Trump like a tool?

7 months (+6-12 if sanctions lifted).

Anonymous wrote:I don’t know why anyone thought that Putin would ever give up. We’ve spent billions of dollars for nothing when we could have worked on infrastructure.

At least Putin isn’t indiscriminately killing women and children like Netanyahu but he still will do what it takes to win.

Anonymous wrote:I don’t know why anyone thought that Putin would ever give up. We’ve spent billions of dollars for nothing when we could have worked on infrastructure.

At least Putin isn’t indiscriminately killing women and children like Netanyahu but he still will do what it takes to win.

Anonymous wrote:It is funny watching Trump and maga world say we need Panama canal and Greenland for security against Russia. Yet Trump and maga will do anything to appease Russia.

Hey Trumpers do you think Trump will surrender to Russia on Jan 20 or the 21st?

Anonymous wrote:It is funny watching Trump and maga world say we need Panama canal and Greenland for security against Russia. Yet Trump and maga will do anything to appease Russia.

Hey Trumpers do you think Trump will surrender to Russia on Jan 20 or the 21st?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How the Russian economy doing these days?

Not so good. And the Russian Central Bank is running out of options. No matter the outcome in Ukraine, the Russian economy is wrecked for a generation and may never recover. It is highly likely that Russia is in a rapid, terminal decline. And they certainly can't sustain these losses for another year. They are taking 45,000+ casualties every single month. Plus the corresponding loss in equipment. They are presently scrapping the bottom of their old Cold War stocks. The Russian military is never recovering. Even if they break through the Ukrainian lines, Russia is doomed over the medium to long term. Their invasion of Ukraine was a colossal miscalculation.

Good for the US though. This is the cheapest win over an adversary ever.

If anyone can't identify this as shilling, they really should restrict their internet use to cat videos.

Dp- Oh cupcake, things not looking good in Moscow. Possibly our new president elect Musk can help turn things around for you, but it’s still up in the air.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How the Russian economy doing these days?

Not so good. And the Russian Central Bank is running out of options. No matter the outcome in Ukraine, the Russian economy is wrecked for a generation and may never recover. It is highly likely that Russia is in a rapid, terminal decline. And they certainly can't sustain these losses for another year. They are taking 45,000+ casualties every single month. Plus the corresponding loss in equipment. They are presently scrapping the bottom of their old Cold War stocks. The Russian military is never recovering. Even if they break through the Ukrainian lines, Russia is doomed over the medium to long term. Their invasion of Ukraine was a colossal miscalculation.

Good for the US though. This is the cheapest win over an adversary ever.

If anyone can't identify this as shilling, they really should restrict their internet use to cat videos.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How the Russian economy doing these days?

Not so good. And the Russian Central Bank is running out of options. No matter the outcome in Ukraine, the Russian economy is wrecked for a generation and may never recover. It is highly likely that Russia is in a rapid, terminal decline. And they certainly can't sustain these losses for another year. They are taking 45,000+ casualties every single month. Plus the corresponding loss in equipment. They are presently scrapping the bottom of their old Cold War stocks. The Russian military is never recovering. Even if they break through the Ukrainian lines, Russia is doomed over the medium to long term. Their invasion of Ukraine was a colossal miscalculation.

Good for the US though. This is the cheapest win over an adversary ever.