Why would you listen to a Russian/MAGA propagandist?

In other news...

While Ukrainians are claiming to encircle Leningrad or whatever flights of fancy are currently making the rounds, they are being routed in the real war:

As for the Kursk front, the actual reality, bolding by me:
"Everyone who posts about "Ukrainians taking territory in Kursk oblast" or "Russians retaking territory in Kursk oblast" is either really stupid or lying to you for clicks. That is not the kind of fighting that is occurring there. It's mostly small teams trying to spot each other and then hunting each other with drones and artillery, or trying to ambush each other. There is no frontline, and most of the map painting for either side is based on a 5 man team driving through an empty villages and snapping a pic while pursuing the enemy. The truth is that we simply don't know who has fire control over what village at any given moment, and it's not the kind of positional warfare where that matters. The Ukrainians are trying to find places where they could dig in and establish supply lines; the Russians are consolidating a defensive perimeter and gathering reserves from where they won't weaken the actual strategic battlegrounds. The actually important questions are whether/when the AFU can establish supply and when the RuAF can coordinate the resources for a sweeping purge of the afflicted area. Russians driving through a village and not seeing the Ukrainian DRG team in the woods nearby does not matter for the overall situation; neither does Ukrainians posting pics from villages they drove through four days ago. Neither of these is newsworthy or has strategic impact."

"All is fine"

Not only that, but the Ukrainians have access now to the western gas lines and more important, the Russian troops rail supply lines. Cut those off, and the Russian troops in Ukraine are totally screwed.

Anonymous wrote:Assuming the NYT reporting is correct, the main goals of the Kursk operation were to pull Russian soldiers from other fronts and demoralize Russia:

Not sure they are accomplishing either goal.

They are. Russian forces are being diverted, which relieves some of the pressure on Vovchansk, Chasiv Yar and other really stressed fronts in Ukraine. Russia is four times larger than Ukraine, and Russians have demonstrated that they are very willing to die in a war of attrition. In these circumstances, every Ukrainian soldier lost is a tragedy. And so Ukraine has to fight differently. Slugging it out trench to trench ultimately isn't going to work against Russians that do not value life - their own or anyone else's. Bizarre people. They will sacrifice tens of thousands of men to take meaningless villages.

And the Russian Army is a top down organization that doesn't deal well with change or innovation. Surprising them by invading Russia itself puts them on their back foot. It's good. Chaos and mayhem and mobility work for Ukraine. And bringing the war home to Russians is absolutely right and just. Plus it really weakens Putin. Win win for Ukraine.

So far, Ukraine has committed about 10,000 troops. Very significant for Ukraine. But when you consider that this war has already cost more than 750,000 casualties, it's just one more front, but one with possibilities. So far, so good. And Ukraine has captured more than a 1000 Russian POWs, which is good for the exchange fund and will allow some Ukrainian POWs to get out of the Russian concentration camps where they are being starved and tortured. It's a good move by Ukraine so far.

Ukraine is on the cusp of pinning the Russian military in Eastern Ukraine for the winter.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Russia has redeployed a relatively small number of troops to contain Ukraine's advances into Kursk. Otherwise it's relying on homeland defense forces. Meanwhile Ukraine is tying up 10,000+ of its best troops to secure a tiny sliver of Russia, and Russian forces continue to slowly advance into Eastern Ukraine, a few km a week. I think Ukraine hoped for a massive overreaction and redeployment of Russian troops away from the Eastern front but it hasn't happened. While embarrassing Russia is certainly gratifying, I don't see a military advantage for Ukraine in all of this.

Putin’s grip on his country is tenuous at best. I think Ukraine is hoping that these maneuvers will create more opposition to him. And that remains to be seen. What the world really needs is a civil war in Russia to overthrow Putin. This situation is not enough to start that, but it might be an important first step.

This is the magic thinking that led to him winning re-election with the largest margin of his political career. Combine that with every fifth-columnar leaving town he has a firmer grip on power now than he ever has. You're more likely to see a civil war in the UK than Russia, and it would be well deserved and hilarious.

Oh look, a propaganda bot.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ukraine has developed its own nuclear weapon(s).

You will be reading about this soon.

They had their own USSR nuclear weapons and gave them up in exchange for soverignty. This was a deal struck with the West, which is why the west is helping to defend Ukrainians today.

The deal was with Russia, that proved time and time again it can never be trusted.

Anonymous wrote:Ukraine has developed its own nuclear weapon(s).

You will be reading about this soon.

They had their own USSR nuclear weapons and gave them up in exchange for soverignty. This was a deal struck with the West, which is why the west is helping to defend Ukrainians today.

Anonymous wrote:Ukraine has developed its own nuclear weapon(s).

You will be reading about this soon.

They are either going to blow the Zaporozhye plant or set off a dirty bomb in a town square. Either would be in character.

Ukraine has developed its own nuclear weapon(s).

You will be reading about this soon.

Assuming the NYT reporting is correct, the main goals of the Kursk operation were to pull Russian soldiers from other fronts and demoralize Russia:

Not sure they are accomplishing either goal.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Russia has redeployed a relatively small number of troops to contain Ukraine's advances into Kursk. Otherwise it's relying on homeland defense forces. Meanwhile Ukraine is tying up 10,000+ of its best troops to secure a tiny sliver of Russia, and Russian forces continue to slowly advance into Eastern Ukraine, a few km a week. I think Ukraine hoped for a massive overreaction and redeployment of Russian troops away from the Eastern front but it hasn't happened. While embarrassing Russia is certainly gratifying, I don't see a military advantage for Ukraine in all of this.

Putin’s grip on his country is tenuous at best. I think Ukraine is hoping that these maneuvers will create more opposition to him. And that remains to be seen. What the world really needs is a civil war in Russia to overthrow Putin. This situation is not enough to start that, but it might be an important first step.

This is the magic thinking that led to him winning re-election with the largest margin of his political career. Combine that with every fifth-columnar leaving town he has a firmer grip on power now than he ever has. You're more likely to see a civil war in the UK than Russia, and it would be well deserved and hilarious.

Hmm. I wouldn't confuse apathetic election results with support. IMHO, magical thinking is the belief Putin's grip on power is absolute. The Ukrainian penetration into Russian territory inititially described by the propagandists as a "counter terrorism operation" still within a "special military operation". You can't evacuate over 1/4 million people over "terrorism" so it was impossible for the Russian Government to try to hide anymore.

Sergey Mardan: "Here's what happened during Putin's meeting. A serious conversation that leaves no doubt that the Russian Government fully realizes the seriousness of the situation. No one is trying to conceal the gravity of the current situation. Some things were voiced in the meeting, some of which was broadcast for us. In my opinion, they were absolutely stunning. The fact that almost no one.. it's not that they didn't pay attention, but I don't think it was reflected in the collective consciousness[*]. Maybe the realization comes slowly, or people don't have a perception of the numbers? The number that was stated, 180,000 people who have to be evacuated and 120,000 have already been evacuated. I still can't get over this number. 180,000 domestic refugees and that is in the Kursk region alone. What bigger shock does there need to be for those who are hiding in their emotional space.. those who don't want to know anything.. those who don't want to know anything.. for whom nothing has changed and nothing is happening. [**]"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZYtPQlmwTo

* = Mardan seems to be indicating that although he was shocked and caught off-guard, other meeting attendees seemed lackluster or unresponsive.

** = Solovyov: "it includes those here who are sowing panic, those who are spreading total nonsense. Speaking the language from Comrade Stalin, panic-mongers and traitors." Solovyov may be talking about Mardan; or Mardan is implying Solovyov lied; depending upon who broadcast first?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ExPzPXW2usk

As far as "civil war" goes, if this next report is true, Russia may have an even bigger crisis on the horizon.

"Kadyrovites secretly concluded an agreement with Ukraine on Kursk region"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOAtQbV5I4I

Remember that this is the first time since World War II that a foreign nation has invaded Russian territory. Patriotic Russian's are generally ego-centric with a strong belief in Russian invincibility and superiority over all other ethnicities and countries. Yet a country a third of it's size is penetrating Russia's borders.

I believe that Putin nay call for a Total Mobilization, but that would only increase supply shortages and fuel economic inflation.

Anyone still think that Russia will prevail? I'm still giving Russia 10 months, with the Kremlin (or Putin himself) turning on guys like Solovyov by March.