Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Four Wisconsin polls released in the last two days all show Trump in no man's land:

Hodas and Associates (GOP firm): 55-39
Marquette: 49-41
Sienna College (NYT): 49-38
Redfield and Wilton (UK firm): 45-38

Better, but even still, I’d like wider margins.

Anonymous wrote:Four Wisconsin polls released in the last two days all show Trump in no man's land:

Hodas and Associates (GOP firm): 55-39
Marquette: 49-41
Sienna College (NYT): 49-38
Redfield and Wilton (UK firm): 45-38

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
It's not enough that he lose. He needs to be repudiated, hard.

as does the entire complicit GOP

They need to be demolished

Anonymous wrote:
It's not enough that he lose. He needs to be repudiated, hard.

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Dayum. New NYT/Sienna poll:

Biden - 50%
Trump - 36%

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1275728933909078026

Signs of base erosion detected.

Maybe it’s PTSD but I have a hard time believing any of this.

Same. I keep trying to take the polls seriously. and every once in a while I stop feeling like there's a weight on my chest - but also, I remember 2016 all too well. And the hell since then.

Keep repeating this to yourself: The nationwide polls in 2016 were not wrong.

Because that's the truth.

I know they weren't - but the lesson I learned is not to take on faith that a lead in the polls means winning the election. I've listened to a million 538 podcasts on probabilities and how the polling was right, and all that - and I also take seriously that people elected Trump president last time and they might do it again.

When you're three points ahead in the national polls, you may not always win the election. But when you’re ten points ahead in the national polls, it’s really, really hard not to win the election.

Everyone who supports Biden should be acting like he is down 3 points and work tail to encourage people to register to vote and support the candidates down ballot like your lives depend on it. Because, as Trump is showing the world, they do.

But yes, THIS.

Anonymous wrote:We won't have "official" results for some time after election day, and during that period, we are going to be hearing nothing but the election is rigged, the absentee ballots are all fake etc.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Biden wins all the states won by Clinton ‘16, flips PA (they love him there) and MI (the narrowest margin for Trump ‘16), flips AZ (Senate race polling has Mark Kelly up there and I believe that will continue into the Presidential race). Trump holds OH, IA, FL, GA, narrowly wins WI. Holds TX, GOP has some breathing room for the near future. NC comes down to multiple recounts but eventually goes for Biden by a hair’s margin.

If Biden gets AZ, PA, and MI then NC will be moot. Trump can even have NH and all of Maine at that point.

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So Texas is legit in play? OMGOMGOMGOMGOMG

The crazy thing about this poll is that there were slightly more who identified as republicans than identified as democrats polled.

Is that reflective of those 4 states? More Dems than Republicans in the country overall but those states are...different.

Anonymous wrote:

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So Texas is legit in play? OMGOMGOMGOMGOMG

The crazy thing about this poll is that there were slightly more who identified as republicans than identified as democrats polled.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

So Texas is legit in play? OMGOMGOMGOMGOMG

Anonymous wrote:Biden wins all the states won by Clinton ‘16, flips PA (they love him there) and MI (the narrowest margin for Trump ‘16), flips AZ (Senate race polling has Mark Kelly up there and I believe that will continue into the Presidential race). Trump holds OH, IA, FL, GA, narrowly wins WI. Holds TX, GOP has some breathing room for the near future. NC comes down to multiple recounts but eventually goes for Biden by a hair’s margin.