For those of you arguing (hoping?) that Ukrainians would be irreconcilable with Russia, there was an important development over the weekend. One of the biggest "anti-Russian" people in Ukraine was assassinated: https://kyivindependent.com/former-ukrainian-mp-iryna-farion-dies-in-lviv-after-assassination-attempt/

Just one of her many quotes:
"“I cannot call them Ukrainians. If they don't speak Ukrainian, let them call themselves ‘Russians.’ Why are they so crazy? If they are such great patriots, show your patriotism,” Farion said."
This was aimed at the military by the way.

At the ground level, many Ukrainians don't really buy into the anti-Russia narrative anymore.

Anonymous wrote:I know everyone is focused on Biden's exit, but keep an eye at what's going on in Russia right now. It's not the time to get distracted.

"The country’s seaborne crude shipments have slumped to the lowest since January, and are likely to remain near that level through to the end of August. The shift in flows is a mirror image of Russia’s domestic refining rates, which that so far in July are on track to reach a six-month high."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-19/russia-cuts-crude-oil-exports-to-keep-more-barrels-at-home-for-refiners?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-economics&utm_content=economics&utm_source=twitter

What does this mean? Without the currency inflow from oil exports, the value of the Ruble should plummet for as long as Russian exports are curtailed. No Russian oil exports = no demand for Russian Rubles to pay for the oil. Although the Kremlin claims it's not dependent upon imports to survive, this isn't 1950. Anything that Russia does not domestically produce will correspondingly skyrocket in price.

My guess is this is why Nabullina said "payment methods should be a 'state secret'", since it allows accurate measurement of Russian imports.
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-banker-kostin-payment-mechanisms-state-secret-sanctions-2024-7

Take a hard look at what Russia is doing arming the Central Bank leadership. The Russian Central Bank is the equivalent of the Federal Reserve Bank. It's like giving Ben Bernanke an AR-15 to carry around to board meetings, or outfitting Jerome Powell with a pistol.



This is not normal folks.

Give it a year to lift the sanctions, at least the key ones

This now rivals the "Assad must go" curse:

I know everyone is focused on Biden's exit, but keep an eye at what's going on in Russia right now. It's not the time to get distracted.

"The country’s seaborne crude shipments have slumped to the lowest since January, and are likely to remain near that level through to the end of August. The shift in flows is a mirror image of Russia’s domestic refining rates, which that so far in July are on track to reach a six-month high."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-19/russia-cuts-crude-oil-exports-to-keep-more-barrels-at-home-for-refiners?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-economics&utm_content=economics&utm_source=twitter

What does this mean? Without the currency inflow from oil exports, the value of the Ruble should plummet for as long as Russian exports are curtailed. No Russian oil exports = no demand for Russian Rubles to pay for the oil. Although the Kremlin claims it's not dependent upon imports to survive, this isn't 1950. Anything that Russia does not domestically produce will correspondingly skyrocket in price.

My guess is this is why Nabullina said "payment methods should be a 'state secret'", since it allows accurate measurement of Russian imports.
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-banker-kostin-payment-mechanisms-state-secret-sanctions-2024-7

Take a hard look at what Russia is doing arming the Central Bank leadership. The Russian Central Bank is the equivalent of the Federal Reserve Bank. It's like giving Ben Bernanke an AR-15 to carry around to board meetings, or outfitting Jerome Powell with a pistol.



This is not normal folks.

Not that anyone is going to be interested today, but these things need to be documented for the record:

Biden is going to Afghanistan Ukraine

For every action..

"Inflation in the country remains around 8-9%"
https://www.asianews.it/news-en/The-paradoxes-of-Russian-finances-in-support-of-Putin-61157.html

"Markets have priced in a rate hike on July 26, the bank’s next policy meeting."
https://en.thebell.io/russias-650-000-wartime-emigres/

"The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has set from 20.07.2024 the following exchange rates of foreign currencies against the ruble without assuming any liability to buy or sell foreign currency at the rates below"
"1 US Dollar 88.0206"
https://www.cbr.ru/eng/currency_base/daily/

"direct payments made in yuan are increasingly being frozen or delayed"
"It has become very difficult or even impossible to make direct payments from China to Russia"
"Some Chinese buyers of Russian farm goods have also been experiencing issues with payments this month"
"The yuan now accounts for about 40% of Russia’s export and import payments and more than half the value on Russia’s foreign currency market."
"Those who are experiencing problems often are able to find alternative methods for payment, including by using cryptocurrencies or routing the transactions though former Soviet republics like Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan, even though that adds cost, people said."
https://www.livemint.com/news/world/russian-firms-find-it-increasingly-harder-to-get-paid-by-china-11721247870219.html

There is a reaction..

"Top managers at Russia's Central Bank may soon carry weapons such as submachine guns"
"the draft government decree to extend it to its chiefs "was discussed with the National Guard among issues related to ensuring the protection of facilities and employees of the Bank of Russia in new regions.""
"Those who could get the arms include the bank's deputy chairs and their advisers, branch managers, as well as department directors who can be provided with a service pistol or a submachine gun."
"Possible weapons for the bank chiefs could be the Makarov, Yarygin and Glock pistols, as well as Kedr, Vityaz and Kiparis submachine guns. Kalashnikov assault rifles of various models are also mentioned"
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-arms-top-bankers-with-submachine-guns/ar-BB1qddXJ?item=flights%3Cimg%20src&item=flights%3Cimg%20src&item=flights%3Cimg%20src



The funniest part is the Kremlin seems to truly believe that everything will go back to normal once they hit the war stop button? So strange.

Anonymous wrote:Now Ukraine is punishing Slovakia and Hungary. Its an attack on NATO nations by a non-NATO actor (can't call it a country any more).

Ukraine has a long history of stealing gas (receiving it and refusing transit). Tried and true tactics. Who is the seller this time? Probably not Russia?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sanctions are working!

https://www.rt.com/russia/601334-russia-ministry-microsoft-outage/
“The situation with Microsoft once again demonstrates the significance of import substitution of foreign software, first of all – at critical information infrastructure facilities,” officials added.

"Import substitution?" More likely they are running old, bootleg versions of Windows.

Well they didn’t crash, so…

Anonymous wrote:Sanctions are working!

https://www.rt.com/russia/601334-russia-ministry-microsoft-outage/
“The situation with Microsoft once again demonstrates the significance of import substitution of foreign software, first of all – at critical information infrastructure facilities,” officials added.

"Import substitution?" More likely they are running old, bootleg versions of Windows.

Sanctions are working!

https://www.rt.com/russia/601334-russia-ministry-microsoft-outage/
“The situation with Microsoft once again demonstrates the significance of import substitution of foreign software, first of all – at critical information infrastructure facilities,” officials added.

Now Ukraine is punishing Slovakia and Hungary. Its an attack on NATO nations by a non-NATO actor (can't call it a country any more).

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Seems the Chinese share my view on NATO, a global force for chaos:

Lord Bebo is a Putin propagandist. NATO is not threatening China.
Anything else?

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_183254.htm
"Furthermore, at the Madrid Summit in June 2022, NATO Heads of State and Government adopted the NATO 2022 Strategic Concept, the Alliance’s core policy document, which sets NATO’s strategic direction for the coming years. For the first time, the Strategic Concept mentions the importance of the Indo-Pacific, noting that “developments in that region can directly affect Euro-Atlantic security”. The 2022 Strategic Concept also states that “NATO will strengthen dialogue and cooperation with new and existing partners in the Indo-Pacific to tackle cross-regional challenges and shared security interests”."

China certainly views NATO's sudden interest in the Pacific as a threat. Can you really blame them?

NATO isn't the threat. China is the threat. They are threatening to violently invade Taiwan which would severely disrupt global supply of semiconductor chips and other things. China could just leave Taiwan alone and there would be no problem. NATO isn't forcing China to do anything. But if China acts, it will force other countries to respond.

Are you seriously acting like the "One China" policy is something new? We didn't have a problem with that policy when we gave them Most Favored Nation status, or sent them our entire manufacturing base, or when they were buying up our treasuries.

You don't find it weird that we really didn't have a problem with China until the Biden administration and then a switch flipped?

Anonymous wrote:The reality is that this is going to be a long war unfortunately.

Russians did well investing in Republicans. Democrats are idiots and put up a deeply unpopular geriatric who obviously shouldn't be in a position to choose lunch as their candidate for the presidency.

Meanwhile, Trump obviously has a financial dependency on Russians. And JD Vance is a grifter. Game recognizes game.

The idiocy and cynicism of Democrats are what's going to cost Ukrainians dearly. Choosing Biden as the Democratic nominee is going to be catastrophic - not just for Ukraine - but for the entire planet.

The whole set of far left policies that Dems have been espousing lately is hurting them, not just the fact that they have Biden.

Perhaps Russia would accept a proposal of withdrawing from Crimea and Donbas and Ukraine doesn't enter NATO, but Russia does?