It seems logical to pause the boundary analysis while they sort out the western
Boundaries.

It’ll be interesting to see how the school board handles the boundary changes in light of the school choice tax break that just passed in the reconciliation bill.

Hopefully they realize how perilous the boundary changes are in light of the ability for states to significantly increase the coffers for private school. I’m not holding my breath, but they really should think through the ramifications, before more families flee FCPS.

Anonymous wrote:The FARMs rate dropping at schools that had no boundary change OR drop in number of students just means people are afraid to report their income, or people were lying about being poor before. It’s the identical school population, with different paperwork.

I think it’s more that the FARMS rates went up during Covid due to job losses/underemployment in sectors hit hard by COVID policies. The FARMS rate is a lagging indicator since a family is probably using their previous year’s tax returns. So when they re-qualified for August 2024, they were using their income info from 2023, probably the last year that Covid stuff was coming into the equation. Our school (ES) FARMS rate went from 27% to 21%, which I think is roughly where we were in 2019 before Covid.

I do think maybe there was some “encouragement” for families to qualify for free/reduced meals the last few years as well, and some people always game the system by not necessarily including all income or saying they are “single” when they’re really living with relatives.

The FARMs rate dropping at schools that had no boundary change OR drop in number of students just means people are afraid to report their income, or people were lying about being poor before. Its the identical school population, with different paperwork.

Board Meeting tomorrow night, and the below vote is buried in the end of the meeting. The link has the full text in red with strike-throughs of the changes they're voting on https://go.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/Public . I think this impacts the boundary review:



Subject: Revision of Policy 8130 Regarding Phasing
Staff Contact: Christina Setlow, Clerk to the School Board
Other Staff Present: Kevin Jackson, Deputy Clerk to the School Board; Janet Brown, Deputy Clerk to the School Board
Meeting Category: July 10, 2025 - New Business
School Board Action Required: Information

Summary/Background (Key Points):

VII. PHASING OF ADJUSTMENTS

Adjustments under this policy shall be implemented through attrition and phasing.

Elementary Schools: When a boundary adjustment occurs at the middle school level, at the discretion of the School Board, rising sixth (or fifth) graders may be provided the option to remain in the school of attendance prior to the boundary change.


Middle Schools: When a boundary adjustment occurs at the middle school level, attendance in the new school boundary shall be mandatory for incoming 6th grade students in schools with a 6-8 grade configuration and for incoming 7th grade students in schools with a 7-8 grade level configuration. Currently enrolled students shall be given the option to remain at the school or attend the school in the new boundary. These allowances shall not be applicable in the opening of a new school, or in the closing of an existing school.


High Schools: When a boundary adjustment occurs at the high school level, attendance in the new school boundary shall be mandatory for incoming 9th grade students. Students in grades 10-12 shall be given the option to remain at their current school or attend the school in the new boundary. These allowances shall not be applicable in the opening of a new school, or in the closing of an existing school

The School Board may adopt other phasing plans as appropriate to the individual boundary study.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Jeff didn't like it and deleted the post, but you can't separate the rise in FCPS poverty from the border and uncontrolled immigration. The poverty isn't from a rise in American citizen poverty. Look at the demographics of Justice, Annandale, Mt. Vernon, Lewis, Falls Church, and Herndon and tell me otherwise. Trying to deny this fact is hiding the root cause.

And posters on this page are petrified at the possibility of being sent to one of the schools above.

With the beautiful, new renovation, more upper middle class in-bounds families will likely choose Falls Church over private options. That should help regardless of any boundary moves. Did Herndon receive a noticeable population bump after its renovation?

Parents always care more about the academic reputation of a school and the performance of its students than the condition of the building.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Jeff didn't like it and deleted the post, but you can't separate the rise in FCPS poverty from the border and uncontrolled immigration. The poverty isn't from a rise in American citizen poverty. Look at the demographics of Justice, Annandale, Mt. Vernon, Lewis, Falls Church, and Herndon and tell me otherwise. Trying to deny this fact is hiding the root cause.

And posters on this page are petrified at the possibility of being sent to one of the schools above.

With the beautiful, new renovation, more upper middle class in-bounds families will likely choose Falls Church over private options. That should help regardless of any boundary moves. Did Herndon receive a noticeable population bump after its renovation?

Herndon’s enrollment declined after its renovation.

Anonymous wrote:Jeff didn't like it and deleted the post, but you can't separate the rise in FCPS poverty from the border and uncontrolled immigration. The poverty isn't from a rise in American citizen poverty. Look at the demographics of Justice, Annandale, Mt. Vernon, Lewis, Falls Church, and Herndon and tell me otherwise. Trying to deny this fact is hiding the root cause.

And posters on this page are petrified at the possibility of being sent to one of the schools above.

With the beautiful, new renovation, more upper middle class in-bounds families will likely choose Falls Church over private options. That should help regardless of any boundary moves. Did Herndon receive a noticeable population bump after its renovation?

Anonymous wrote:When is the next BRAC meeting?

Based on the schedule released at the June 23 meeting, the BRAC priorities are due today, July 7 but it’s unclear if a meeting is involved. Otherwise, the next scenario review is August 5.

When is the next BRAC meeting?

I was surprised that a school was designated as Title 1 with 29% FARMS. I thought the threshold was much higher, like 50%+.

The FARMS rate dropped last school year at a lot of schools, but I think it remains to be seen if it’s just a late course correction after Covid to pre-Covid levels, or if it’s indicative of larger trends and what those larger trends might be.

Government needs to re-look at how they handle Title I. I think the formula needs to be different. i've posted this before--in the early years of Title I, the money followed the child. (That was a problem because how do you use the $$ with some kids in your class--but not with others.
Now, it follows the school. I know affluent kids in Title I schools who benefit. Is that bad? Not necessarily, but is it the intention of Title I? NO.

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:No surprise that people don’t want their kids moved, especially when there is no “problem” to be solved. Moving for the sake of it is nonsensical and disrupts kids academically and socially.

According to VDOE, FCPS is now 40% FARMs. Boundary changes won’t fix the problems of poverty but they may hide the results.

Fairfax is becoming a poorer urban area with pockets of “gated” rich communities.

This is the natural progression of urbanization in a growing metro area.

The VDOE statistics aren't accurate, or at least they don't measure FARMS like FCPS does.

FCPS reported Justice HS as 51% FARMS as of June 2025. VDOE reports that 2295 students are "disadvantaged," and 64 are not.

As between the two, I place more reliance on the FCPS statistics.

FCPS stated it was 36% last fall. And there is some anomaly in the data for 24-25 with large decreases. 40 seems reasonable.

No, it sounds inaccurate.

As FCPS FARMs rates have doubled in the last 15 years and continue to climb, you can take solace in knowing VDOE is off 4%

Except that's not always the case. Two-year changes in FARMS rates are mostly declines:

Lewis -17.28%
Mount Vernon -12.97%
Falls Church -11.44%
Annandale -7.83%
Centreville - 6.13%
Herndon -5.85%
Justice -5.71%
Edison -4.78%
West Potomac -4.58%
South County -3.09%
West Springfield -2.90%
Hayfield -2.67%
Madison -2.44%
Robinson -2.44%
Chantilly -2.09%
Marshall -1.78%
Westfield -1.66%
South Lakes -1.46%
Fairfax - 1.25%
Woodson -0.93%
Lake Braddock -0.47%
Oakton -0.34%
McLean -0.14%
Langley +0.71%
TJ +2.44%

And that’s the anomaly. Vs two decades of upward trajectory.

And if this thread is any indication, FCPS information may not be entirely reliable.

VDOE says 40% FARMs. FCPS is a poor school district now.

VDOE under Youngkin can’t even tie its shoes.

In any event the premise that FCPS is proposing to change boundaries to mask poverty doesn’t align with the Thru proposals to date.

Don't the online stare stats lag 1 year behind the FCPS stats? They always have lagged in the past, perhaps by months, particularly over the summer, when both the state and FCPS are updating their stats.

FCPS is likely to drop again this year.

WTOP is currently running an article about Arlington losing Title I status this year at some schools. The school profiled in the article, Abdingdon, has dropped from 29% FARMS last year to 20% FARMS by April, a drop of almost 10% in one year. That is a very significant drop in just one school year. I would not be surprised if once the doors open in August, the FARMS rate there and at similar schools has dropped to the upper or mid teens, coupled with a notable enrollment drop as well.

It is very probable that FCPS is going to experience very similar year to year drops in FARMS at several schools between this year and last year.

https://wtop.com/arlington/2025/07/arlington-parents-concerned-about-elementary-school-losing-title-i-status/

I was surprised that a school was designated as Title 1 with 29% FARMS. I thought the threshold was much higher, like 50%+.

The FARMS rate dropped last school year at a lot of schools, but I think it remains to be seen if it’s just a late course correction after Covid to pre-Covid levels, or if it’s indicative of larger trends and what those larger trends might be.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No surprise that people don’t want their kids moved, especially when there is no “problem” to be solved. Moving for the sake of it is nonsensical and disrupts kids academically and socially.

According to VDOE, FCPS is now 40% FARMs. Boundary changes won’t fix the problems of poverty but they may hide the results.

Fairfax is becoming a poorer urban area with pockets of “gated” rich communities.

This is the natural progression of urbanization in a growing metro area.

The VDOE statistics aren't accurate, or at least they don't measure FARMS like FCPS does.

FCPS reported Justice HS as 51% FARMS as of June 2025. VDOE reports that 2295 students are "disadvantaged," and 64 are not.

As between the two, I place more reliance on the FCPS statistics.

FCPS stated it was 36% last fall. And there is some anomaly in the data for 24-25 with large decreases. 40 seems reasonable.

No, it sounds inaccurate.

As FCPS FARMs rates have doubled in the last 15 years and continue to climb, you can take solace in knowing VDOE is off 4%

Except that's not always the case. Two-year changes in FARMS rates are mostly declines:

Lewis -17.28%
Mount Vernon -12.97%
Falls Church -11.44%
Annandale -7.83%
Centreville - 6.13%
Herndon -5.85%
Justice -5.71%
Edison -4.78%
West Potomac -4.58%
South County -3.09%
West Springfield -2.90%
Hayfield -2.67%
Madison -2.44%
Robinson -2.44%
Chantilly -2.09%
Marshall -1.78%
Westfield -1.66%
South Lakes -1.46%
Fairfax - 1.25%
Woodson -0.93%
Lake Braddock -0.47%
Oakton -0.34%
McLean -0.14%
Langley +0.71%
TJ +2.44%

And that’s the anomaly. Vs two decades of upward trajectory.

And if this thread is any indication, FCPS information may not be entirely reliable.

VDOE says 40% FARMs. FCPS is a poor school district now.

VDOE under Youngkin can’t even tie its shoes.

In any event the premise that FCPS is proposing to change boundaries to mask poverty doesn’t align with the Thru proposals to date.

Don't the online stare stats lag 1 year behind the FCPS stats? They always have lagged in the past, perhaps by months, particularly over the summer, when both the state and FCPS are updating their stats.

FCPS is likely to drop again this year.

WTOP is currently running an article about Arlington losing Title I status this year at some schools. The school profiled in the article, Abdingdon, has dropped from 29% FARMS last year to 20% FARMS by April, a drop of almost 10% in one year. That is a very significant drop in just one school year. I would not be surprised if once the doors open in August, the FARMS rate there and at similar schools has dropped to the upper or mid teens, coupled with a notable enrollment drop as well.

It is very probable that FCPS is going to experience very similar year to year drops in FARMS at several schools between this year and last year.

https://wtop.com/arlington/2025/07/arlington-parents-concerned-about-elementary-school-losing-title-i-status/

Jeff didn't like it and deleted the post, but you can't separate the rise in FCPS poverty from the border and uncontrolled immigration. The poverty isn't from a rise in American citizen poverty. Look at the demographics of Justice, Annandale, Mt. Vernon, Lewis, Falls Church, and Herndon and tell me otherwise. Trying to deny this fact is hiding the root cause.

And posters on this page are petrified at the possibility of being sent to one of the schools above.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No surprise that people don’t want their kids moved, especially when there is no “problem” to be solved. Moving for the sake of it is nonsensical and disrupts kids academically and socially.

According to VDOE, FCPS is now 40% FARMs. Boundary changes won’t fix the problems of poverty but they may hide the results.

Fairfax is becoming a poorer urban area with pockets of “gated” rich communities.

This is the natural progression of urbanization in a growing metro area.

The VDOE statistics aren't accurate, or at least they don't measure FARMS like FCPS does.

FCPS reported Justice HS as 51% FARMS as of June 2025. VDOE reports that 2295 students are "disadvantaged," and 64 are not.

As between the two, I place more reliance on the FCPS statistics.

FCPS stated it was 36% last fall. And there is some anomaly in the data for 24-25 with large decreases. 40 seems reasonable.

No, it sounds inaccurate.

As FCPS FARMs rates have doubled in the last 15 years and continue to climb, you can take solace in knowing VDOE is off 4%

Except that's not always the case. Two-year changes in FARMS rates are mostly declines:

Lewis -17.28%
Mount Vernon -12.97%
Falls Church -11.44%
Annandale -7.83%
Centreville - 6.13%
Herndon -5.85%
Justice -5.71%
Edison -4.78%
West Potomac -4.58%
South County -3.09%
West Springfield -2.90%
Hayfield -2.67%
Madison -2.44%
Robinson -2.44%
Chantilly -2.09%
Marshall -1.78%
Westfield -1.66%
South Lakes -1.46%
Fairfax - 1.25%
Woodson -0.93%
Lake Braddock -0.47%
Oakton -0.34%
McLean -0.14%
Langley +0.71%
TJ +2.44%

And that’s the anomaly. Vs two decades of upward trajectory.

And if this thread is any indication, FCPS information may not be entirely reliable.

VDOE says 40% FARMs. FCPS is a poor school district now.

VDOE under Youngkin can’t even tie its shoes.

In any event the premise that FCPS is proposing to change boundaries to mask poverty doesn’t align with the Thru proposals to date.

If 40% FARMS is accurate, it will be impossible to fix the impoverished schools. FCPS needs to focus on good, solid insruction and drop the social issues.

NYtimes article says Virginia has ramped up ICE arrests rates more than any other state and VA is being used as a testing grounds for how Trump will handle other states. Fairfax county was hit the hardest. I can only imagine that will impact FARMs rates. I am not a fan of Trump or his policies, but as under fire as Fairfax is right now, the board is not helping by adding so much to the instability here.