Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My take: Ukrainians are allowed one last major battle, then forced to negotiate. After that, a slow and steady guerrilla war is fought while there is some semblance of pause in this conflict, Israeli-Palestinian style.
Russia is still under sanctions though some od them are quietly not enforced or even cancelled. Ukraine gets weapons but only those enough to stop the Russians from advancing.
Russia continues deteriorating under sanctions, while Ukraine is more or less stabilized but never reaches its former economic indicators.
It goes on for decades.

Ukraine never really had much going on for them economically to begin with.

If Ukraine can sever ties with Russia and Russian oligarchs and Russian interference and straighten up their financial institutions, investment from the West would pour into their economy. It is a big country with resources and natural trading partners in the EU.

Massive gas deposits in the black sea and a huge base of tech savvy computer nerds with decent english and low wage demands. Ukraine will do very well if they can get their orc infestation under control. They are the new Israel.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My take: Ukrainians are allowed one last major battle, then forced to negotiate. After that, a slow and steady guerrilla war is fought while there is some semblance of pause in this conflict, Israeli-Palestinian style.
Russia is still under sanctions though some od them are quietly not enforced or even cancelled. Ukraine gets weapons but only those enough to stop the Russians from advancing.
Russia continues deteriorating under sanctions, while Ukraine is more or less stabilized but never reaches its former economic indicators.
It goes on for decades.

Ukraine never really had much going on for them economically to begin with.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My take: Ukrainians are allowed one last major battle, then forced to negotiate. After that, a slow and steady guerrilla war is fought while there is some semblance of pause in this conflict, Israeli-Palestinian style.
Russia is still under sanctions though some od them are quietly not enforced or even cancelled. Ukraine gets weapons but only those enough to stop the Russians from advancing.
Russia continues deteriorating under sanctions, while Ukraine is more or less stabilized but never reaches its former economic indicators.
It goes on for decades.

Ukraine never really had much going on for them economically to begin with.

If Ukraine can sever ties with Russia and Russian oligarchs and Russian interference and straighten up their financial institutions, investment from the West would pour into their economy. It is a big country with resources and natural trading partners in the EU.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My take: Ukrainians are allowed one last major battle, then forced to negotiate. After that, a slow and steady guerrilla war is fought while there is some semblance of pause in this conflict, Israeli-Palestinian style.
Russia is still under sanctions though some od them are quietly not enforced or even cancelled. Ukraine gets weapons but only those enough to stop the Russians from advancing.
Russia continues deteriorating under sanctions, while Ukraine is more or less stabilized but never reaches its former economic indicators.
It goes on for decades.

Ukraine never really had much going on for them economically to begin with.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My take: Ukrainians are allowed one last major battle, then forced to negotiate. After that, a slow and steady guerrilla war is fought while there is some semblance of pause in this conflict, Israeli-Palestinian style.
Russia is still under sanctions though some od them are quietly not enforced or even cancelled. Ukraine gets weapons but only those enough to stop the Russians from advancing.
Russia continues deteriorating under sanctions, while Ukraine is more or less stabilized but never reaches its former economic indicators.
It goes on for decades.

This certainly isn't going to go on for decades. This is nothing like Israel-Palestine. Russia just on its own is deep into a doom loop. It's a demographic catastrophe that the war in Ukraine has only accelerated. Almost every young professional university-educated male, particularly in IT, left the country at the outset of the war. And they're not coming back. What remains is an increasingly old and barely literate population. An incredibly high percentage of Russian men are afflicted with alcoholism. Economically, for thirty years Russia has managed to get by as Europe's gas station. Europe isn't buying anymore. They're done will never go back to being dependent on Russian oil and gas. Selling deeply discounted oil to India does not support a superpower. Politically, there is no "system." It's a dictatorship. Putin is ill. The moment he leaves the scene, chaos reigns. Medvedev is a drunk. The rest are warlords. It's not going to go well.

And then there is the war in Ukraine. Best estimates are that Russia has suffered roughly 200,000 casualties. 70,000 dead and the rest crippled or injured. Ukraine has certainly suffered staggering losses themselves. But they are fighting to save their families and their land. There is no higher motivation to fight. Most of the advanced western weapons systems promised to Ukraine have arrived - Patriot missile systems, Leopard tanks, Bradley fighting vehicles, and very significantly, UK-supplied Storm Shadow long distance missiles, which are five times more powerful than HIMARS and have a longer range. Just as importantly, tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have been trained up to NATO standards at bases throughout Europe and even the US, where they are being trained to use Abrams tanks, which should arrive in Ukraine by the Fall.

Meanwhile, the Russian military has fallen apart. More than 2500 tanks gone. At present rates of destruction, all their APCs will be wiped out by the end of the year. Shortages of ammunition. And on and on and on. None of this can be easily replenished. Military leadership is weak and disorganized. Wagner and regular army do not coordinate anymore. The left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing. In recent days, Ukrainian forces have conducted probing attacks throughout the front, including in Bakhmut. In all cases, Russian forces were destroyed or fled. On Russian Telegram channels, they are in blind panic.

I'm increasingly confident that the upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive will turn into a rout and this war will be over by then end of the year.

Literally every single demographic and economic indicator you listed - from shortage of young male to emigration to alcoholism - is just as applicable to Ukraine.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My take: Ukrainians are allowed one last major battle, then forced to negotiate. After that, a slow and steady guerrilla war is fought while there is some semblance of pause in this conflict, Israeli-Palestinian style.
Russia is still under sanctions though some od them are quietly not enforced or even cancelled. Ukraine gets weapons but only those enough to stop the Russians from advancing.
Russia continues deteriorating under sanctions, while Ukraine is more or less stabilized but never reaches its former economic indicators.
It goes on for decades.

This certainly isn't going to go on for decades. This is nothing like Israel-Palestine. Russia just on its own is deep into a doom loop. It's a demographic catastrophe that the war in Ukraine has only accelerated. Almost every young professional university-educated male, particularly in IT, left the country at the outset of the war. And they're not coming back. What remains is an increasingly old and barely literate population. An incredibly high percentage of Russian men are afflicted with alcoholism. Economically, for thirty years Russia has managed to get by as Europe's gas station. Europe isn't buying anymore. They're done will never go back to being dependent on Russian oil and gas. Selling deeply discounted oil to India does not support a superpower. Politically, there is no "system." It's a dictatorship. Putin is ill. The moment he leaves the scene, chaos reigns. Medvedev is a drunk. The rest are warlords. It's not going to go well.

And then there is the war in Ukraine. Best estimates are that Russia has suffered roughly 200,000 casualties. 70,000 dead and the rest crippled or injured. Ukraine has certainly suffered staggering losses themselves. But they are fighting to save their families and their land. There is no higher motivation to fight. Most of the advanced western weapons systems promised to Ukraine have arrived - Patriot missile systems, Leopard tanks, Bradley fighting vehicles, and very significantly, UK-supplied Storm Shadow long distance missiles, which are five times more powerful than HIMARS and have a longer range. Just as importantly, tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have been trained up to NATO standards at bases throughout Europe and even the US, where they are being trained to use Abrams tanks, which should arrive in Ukraine by the Fall.

Meanwhile, the Russian military has fallen apart. More than 2500 tanks gone. At present rates of destruction, all their APCs will be wiped out by the end of the year. Shortages of ammunition. And on and on and on. None of this can be easily replenished. Military leadership is weak and disorganized. Wagner and regular army do not coordinate anymore. The left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing. In recent days, Ukrainian forces have conducted probing attacks throughout the front, including in Bakhmut. In all cases, Russian forces were destroyed or fled. On Russian Telegram channels, they are in blind panic.

I'm increasingly confident that the upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive will turn into a rout and this war will be over by then end of the year.

Anonymous wrote:My take: Ukrainians are allowed one last major battle, then forced to negotiate. After that, a slow and steady guerrilla war is fought while there is some semblance of pause in this conflict, Israeli-Palestinian style.
Russia is still under sanctions though some od them are quietly not enforced or even cancelled. Ukraine gets weapons but only those enough to stop the Russians from advancing.
Russia continues deteriorating under sanctions, while Ukraine is more or less stabilized but never reaches its former economic indicators.
It goes on for decades.

Anonymous wrote:My take: Ukrainians are allowed one last major battle, then forced to negotiate. After that, a slow and steady guerrilla war is fought while there is some semblance of pause in this conflict, Israeli-Palestinian style.
Russia is still under sanctions though some od them are quietly not enforced or even cancelled. Ukraine gets weapons but only those enough to stop the Russians from advancing.
Russia continues deteriorating under sanctions, while Ukraine is more or less stabilized but never reaches its former economic indicators.
It goes on for decades.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I haven’t seen any responses in Russian but they shouldn’t be here, just as there shouldn’t be any responses in any other languages besides English, the language of the forum.

Don't tell me - tell the Russian propaganda trolls. It helps to target the message when they lurk on the board, but all you have to do is post the "Putin as a crab" gif and they have to run away. They're not authorized to look at 'forbidden' stuff so it's the easiest way to scare them away, in case you ever suspect the Russians are on your website / blog, etc. Again, I think their propaganda storyboard is in disarray, which is why you haven't seen many comments lately. They've probably moved onto greener pastures where they can get traction from people they can dupe.

And I'm starting to see the 'bargaining' phase unfold in Russian media - not just the troll that was on here earlier.

"I personally want to address the Ukrainian soldiers. Guys... We are not enemies. Understand, most of us are kindred. And there was a time when we may or may not argue, but we have everything needed to forget our disputes...
Let's forget about everything that happened. Let's unite and turn in the opposite direction and do everything to end the war. And live together again." https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-collaborator-volodymyr-saldo-records-134926115.html

The guy's name is Saldo. When this guy was Mayor of Kherson (2002–2012), his main opponent (Solokov) died in a car accident. While elected as a People's Deputy of Ukraine (2012–2015) months before the first invasion of Ukraine in 2014, he voted for anti-protest laws (aka "dictatorship laws") on 16 January 2014. While Kherson City Councillor (2015–2022), he lost twice for bids to become Mayor of Kherson again. When the second Russian Invasion started in 2022, he came out as staunchly pro-Russian. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Saldo

But it will be tough to let bygones be bygones without some sort of serious reconciliation and acknowledgement by Russia that wrongs were committed, so he's pretty much peeing in the wind. He understands that his usefulness to Russia in Kherson is nearing an end so is attempting to negotiate from a position of weakness. If he's smart, he'll surrender to the Ukrainians to make anti-propaganda soundbites to encourage locals to turn on the Russians occupying the city?

Also, now that Wagner is done (hard to lose 500 troops and be 'combat effective'), Prigozhin is a liability. I would expect him to be scraped off of someone's windshield soon. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/10/russians-near-bakhmut-have-retreated-by-up-to-2km-ukrainian-official-says

You're a very typical DCUM poster who thinks everyone who disagrees with you is a Russian troll. I don't blame you - some arguments have been voiced that are impossible for you to respond to meaningfully so you resort to childish tactics. The stuff you post in Russian is similar to "yo mama is fat". And it's bad Russian to boot, too. I don't blame you for that, either. If DoS couldn't find qualified translators to find the right word for "reset", what hope is there for you, a DCUM rando? Likewise, no one cares what stupid gifs you post. Your arguments either make sense or they don't. Getting personal is a sign of weakness.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I haven’t seen any responses in Russian but they shouldn’t be here, just as there shouldn’t be any responses in any other languages besides English, the language of the forum.

Don't tell me - tell the Russian propaganda trolls. It helps to target the message when they lurk on the board, but all you have to do is post the "Putin as a crab" gif and they have to run away. They're not authorized to look at 'forbidden' stuff so it's the easiest way to scare them away, in case you ever suspect the Russians are on your website / blog, etc. Again, I think their propaganda storyboard is in disarray, which is why you haven't seen many comments lately. They've probably moved onto greener pastures where they can get traction from people they can dupe.

And I'm starting to see the 'bargaining' phase unfold in Russian media - not just the troll that was on here earlier.

"I personally want to address the Ukrainian soldiers. Guys... We are not enemies. Understand, most of us are kindred. And there was a time when we may or may not argue, but we have everything needed to forget our disputes...
Let's forget about everything that happened. Let's unite and turn in the opposite direction and do everything to end the war. And live together again." https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-collaborator-volodymyr-saldo-records-134926115.html

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I haven’t seen any responses in Russian but they shouldn’t be here, just as there shouldn’t be any responses in any other languages besides English, the language of the forum.

Don't tell me - tell the Russian propaganda trolls. It helps to target the message when they lurk on the board, but all you have to do is post the "Putin as a crab" gif and they have to run away. They're not authorized to look at 'forbidden' stuff so it's the easiest way to scare them away, in case you ever suspect the Russians are on your website / blog, etc. Again, I think their propaganda storyboard is in disarray, which is why you haven't seen many comments lately. They've probably moved onto greener pastures where they can get traction from people they can dupe.

And I'm starting to see the 'bargaining' phase unfold in Russian media - not just the troll that was on here earlier.

"I personally want to address the Ukrainian soldiers. Guys... We are not enemies. Understand, most of us are kindred. And there was a time when we may or may not argue, but we have everything needed to forget our disputes...
Let's forget about everything that happened. Let's unite and turn in the opposite direction and do everything to end the war. And live together again." https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-collaborator-volodymyr-saldo-records-134926115.html

The guy's name is Saldo. When this guy was Mayor of Kherson (2002–2012), his main opponent (Solokov) died in a car accident. While elected as a People's Deputy of Ukraine (2012–2015) months before the first invasion of Ukraine in 2014, he voted for anti-protest laws (aka "dictatorship laws") on 16 January 2014. While Kherson City Councillor (2015–2022), he lost twice for bids to become Mayor of Kherson again. When the second Russian Invasion started in 2022, he came out as staunchly pro-Russian. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Saldo

But it will be tough to let bygones be bygones without some sort of serious reconciliation and acknowledgement by Russia that wrongs were committed, so he's pretty much peeing in the wind. He understands that his usefulness to Russia in Kherson is nearing an end so is attempting to negotiate from a position of weakness. If he's smart, he'll surrender to the Ukrainians to make anti-propaganda soundbites to encourage locals to turn on the Russians occupying the city?

Also, now that Wagner is done (hard to lose 500 troops and be 'combat effective'), Prigozhin is a liability. I would expect him to be scraped off of someone's windshield soon. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/10/russians-near-bakhmut-have-retreated-by-up-to-2km-ukrainian-official-says