DCUM Forum

Anonymous

05/17/2020 23:40 Subject: How Likely Is Soccer in the Fall ? (with Games!)

Anonymous wrote:
I just want to make 3 points:

1. Children in the US have died from Covid-19 or the subsequent inflammation disorder that resembles, but is not, Kawasaki Disease. It is a new disorder. However this is a very small number out of all known cases.

Note that there is nothing even remotely close to scientific proof that this disorder is in any way related to covid. Several children with these symptoms have not tested positive even for covid antibodies, let alone for the virus itself. And, even if they all tested positive for antibodies (they don't), that would be an interesting correlation well worth investigating further but still a long way from causation.

2. It is MATHEMATICALLY CERTAIN that there will be a surge in cases anytime physical distancing rules are relaxed. This is because the virus is not going away, and we don't have a vaccine yet.

This is not strictly true. In areas where the a large proportion of the population has already been exposed, there may not be a surge. So some of the cities in the north east may not see a surge. And this is likely why Wuhan has not seen a surge either for example.

However I do agree that anywhere where the virus has not reached at least 30%-40% of the population there will be a surge. And that certainly appears to include the DMV.

3. Conclusion: please don't pay for any 2020-2021 activity unless you are 100% sure you can get a refund.

Or that you're willing to eat the deposit

Anonymous

05/17/2020 23:33 Subject: How Likely Is Soccer in the Fall ? (with Games!)

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Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/nyregion/children-Kawasaki-syndrome-coronavirus.html

This article is fear porn.

Kawasaki disease is well understood. It affects a very small number of children, mostly under 5, each year and can occur in response to many viruses, seemingly including covid-19. It is well understood, eminently treateable and curable, and has no lasting effects.

The article may be fear porn, but this post is misinformed.

The KD we are seeing post-COVID also has elements of Toxic Shock Syndrome and Macrophage Activation Syndrome. These kids are MUCH sicker than the standard KD patient (most are requiring PICU-level care, which is uncommon in KD) and skew older (elementary & middle-school aged), and they are NOT responding to the common KD treatments of IVIG and high-dose ASA.

The number of KD patients still represents a small proportion of the population and thus should not necessarily impact the decision to return to play; however, it is incorrect to say that this condition is "eminently treateable (sp) and curable"

Thanks for this distinction. This is why they gave it a different name.

Sorry - but this is more fear porn. See: https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86484. Despite the fear porn headline the crucial text is as follows:

Unlike COVID-19, where pre-existing conditions seem to play a role in severity of infection, Choueiter said most children presenting with this syndrome were previously healthy, and "most were not aware they had COVID." "Some had a positive PCR test, some had a negative PCR test. Among the negative tests, some had a positive test for antibodies, which suggests they were exposed to the virus weeks back," she noted. Choueiter noted kids can be hospitalized in the ICU for 1 to 2 weeks for this syndrome, or in less serious cases, a few days. "So far, most who have been admitted have gone home," she said.

So no real evidence this has anything to do with covid. Plus numbers so small that no statistical conclusions can sensibly be drawn in any case.

Haven't you got tired of the endless evidence free fear mongering yet? Fatality rates of 10%, millions of deaths in the US, deadly mutant strains, you don't get immune so you can get it twice, etc. etc. This is just the latest attempt to sell newspapers and/or justify the lockdown, and not even a good one at that. It will turn out to be as much nonsense as all the other fear porn that's been purveyed by our proud, free, gallant reprsentatives of the noble fourth estate.

Out of the millions of children who have by now been exposed to covid, there has not been a single death from this syndrome. Utter BS.

“Three children, a 5-year-old boy in New York City, a 7-year old in Westchester County and a teenager in Suffolk County have died.

It appears the three children did not have underlying conditions, which are often associated with the patients most gravely affected by COVID-19.“

https://abc7ny.com/pediatric-multisystem-inflammatory-syndrome-pmis-symptoms-covid-children-coronavirus/6169496/

"The children had tested positive for COVID-19 or the antibodies but did not show the common symptoms of the virus when they were hospitalized."

Probably 50% of New Yorkers would test positive for antibodies by now. This has nothing to do with covid-19. Just take all kids who died with these symptoms - which could result from a whole host of causes - test them for covid - and find three that have antibodies and then claim that they are covid deaths. This is not just not good science - it bears absolutely no relationship to science at all. It is however profitable tabloid journalism.

Probably 50%?
NYcity - 8.3 million
NY - 20 million
Confirmed NY Covid19 - 346K
Confirmed deaths - 27.5K

Not everyone who had/ has COVID19 are able to test well for antibodies.

1. Have you seen the antibody test results from New York? Several weeks ago they were implying over 20% of people in New York City (and about 14% in New York state as a whole) had already been exposed to covid-19. These tests had very low rates of false positives and higher rates of false negatives so the actual rate of exposure was likely higher than this. Several more weeks have elapsed since then.

2. Confirmed cases are well known to be a small fraction of actual exposure for this, and every other, disease. Estimates vary but the broad range is 10x-50x. Most recent estimates, based on various studies, have concluded that 20-30x is what most countries see. Those countries doing much more testing than average obviously achieve lower multiples.

3. Most estimates (based on studies produced by scientists as opposed to articles written by journalists) for the infection fatality rate of covid are now between 0.2% and 0.4%, and the generally accepted way of estimating the percentage of the population that has been infected is to multiple the number of fatalities by about 300. In the case of New York that would imply about 8.25 million infections - which is about 40%. You could argue that, since New York opted for the "infect as many old people as you can by forcing nursing homes to take patients released from hospital while still infectious" strategy that they might have an apparent fatality rate rather above the average, and therefore suggest that maybe only 30% of the population has been exposed. I'm Ok with that. My point still applies. It would apply even at only 5%.

4. "Not everyone who had/ has COVID19 are able to test well for antibodies". So what? That doesn't give you license to assume that any random symptoms are attributable to covid-19 when there hasn't been a positive test. If you allow that, then you could claim anything and everything was caused by covid. Per your method, there is literally nothing that is not associated with covid. This is junk science.

Anonymous

05/17/2020 23:17 Subject: How Likely Is Soccer in the Fall ? (with Games!)

Anonymous wrote:Our club told us that they will require a small deposit but if hte season is delayed no payments will be charged until the season resumes. It seems like a reasonable approach, given the current uncertainty.

Ours did something similar with the payments, as well as noting all current players would be offered a spot on next season's roster and stating that there were some open spots on the roster for new players. Seemed reasonable...

Anonymous

05/17/2020 16:23 Subject: Re:How Likely Is Soccer in the Fall ? (with Games!)

Anonymous wrote:Indiana is heading back to the fields.

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/2020/05/11/reopening-amid-coronavirus-how-little-league-youth-sports-might-return/3107642001/

Most places will be back soon

Anonymous

05/17/2020 16:18 Subject: How Likely Is Soccer in the Fall ? (with Games!)

Anonymous wrote:Our club told us that they will require a small deposit but if hte season is delayed no payments will be charged until the season resumes. It seems like a reasonable approach, given the current uncertainty.

I like this approach

Anonymous

05/17/2020 15:10 Subject: How Likely Is Soccer in the Fall ? (with Games!)

Our club told us that they will require a small deposit but if hte season is delayed no payments will be charged until the season resumes. It seems like a reasonable approach, given the current uncertainty.

Anonymous

05/17/2020 13:19 Subject: How Likely Is Soccer in the Fall ? (with Games!)

Seems like most places are returning, looks like the people on here hoping we don’t get back are going to be upset

Anonymous

05/17/2020 11:27 Subject: How Likely Is Soccer in the Fall ? (with Games!)

Anonymous wrote:DMV planning an underground neighborhood soccer league where the different neighborhood kids play street soccer against each other. No age restrictions other than you have to be under 18.

When/where? How do we get involved?

Anonymous

05/17/2020 10:13 Subject: How Likely Is Soccer in the Fall ? (with Games!)

DMV planning an underground neighborhood soccer league where the different neighborhood kids play street soccer against each other. No age restrictions other than you have to be under 18.

Anonymous

05/17/2020 08:54 Subject: How Likely Is Soccer in the Fall ? (with Games!)

College conferences playing this Fall. https://www.topdrawersoccer.com/college-soccer-articles/coronavirus-college-soccer-news-tracker_aid48068

Anonymous

05/17/2020 02:40 Subject: How Likely Is Soccer in the Fall ? (with Games!)

It will be back

Anonymous

05/16/2020 23:34 Subject: How Likely Is Soccer in the Fall ? (with Games!)