Anonymous
03/25/2020 00:05
Subject: Second Great Depression
Anonymous wrote:The whole situation cannot be sustained. It is a house of cards. People need to fend off poverty and return to work.
Oh, but it appears we are hell bent on complete economic collapse to save 2% of the population. A 2% that already has a got in the grave.
Genius.
Anonymous
03/24/2020 17:09
Subject: Second Great Depression
The whole situation cannot be sustained. It is a house of cards. People need to fend off poverty and return to work.
Anonymous
03/24/2020 16:34
Subject: Second Great Depression
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:So if there's a mortgage freeze, what happens to the MBS market ... what happens to the REIT market ...
The entire waterfall of payments will be frozen. Government overrides the accounting standards and tells no one to mark-to-market until the crisis is officially over.
This process may be tested very soon.
MFA Financial, Invesco Mortgage, Annaly Capital, and New York Mortgage Trust are all having problems meeting margin calls. All are vast holders of MBS's. The non-agency MBS sector looks ... weak.
The entire mortgage REIT sector is looking iffy. Right now it looks like the system can handle it unless some other player played too much in that playground. The Fed will surely provide a floor for MBS's but individual stocks can just go to hell for all they care.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/mortgage-reits-come-under-stress-that-even-the-fed-might-not-be-able-to-ease-51585073391
Anonymous
03/24/2020 14:48
Subject: Second Great Depression
Anonymous wrote:So if there's a mortgage freeze, what happens to the MBS market ... what happens to the REIT market ...
The entire waterfall of payments will be frozen. Government overrides the accounting standards and tells no one to mark-to-market until the crisis is officially over.
Anonymous
03/24/2020 13:36
Subject: Second Great Depression
Anonymous wrote:So if there's a mortgage freeze, what happens to the MBS market ... what happens to the REIT market ...
You think Mnuchin is smart enough to not let Lehman 2.0 implode?
Anonymous
03/24/2020 13:33
Subject: Second Great Depression
So if there's a mortgage freeze, what happens to the MBS market ... what happens to the REIT market ...
Anonymous
03/23/2020 16:32
Subject: Re:Second Great Depression
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I don't think people understand the magnitude of what is coming as a result of the pandemic.
Businesses large and small are in debt to their necks. Without cash flow, they will go bankrupt. We are about to see a huge wave of bankruptcies and massive layoffs.
One of the signs of this is that both stocks and bonds are selling off at the same time. That means people are not shifting money from stocks to bonds for safety, they are instead trying to liquidate all their investments (even at a loss) and raise cash as fast as possible to pay off debt. This will only work in the short term. If the economy is still halted months from now, bankruptcy is the only option. Jobless claims are already exploding, and a thousand bucks per American from the federal government won't make up the difference.
The government is preparing bailouts, but they can't bail out every industry. The nation can't afford it because our government is also deeply in debt. We are now adding trillions to the national debt in a matter of weeks while facing a fiscal cliff due to lack of tax revenue. The federal government's fiscal situation was already precarious, and this may tip it into our country's first default.
The only thing that will really help is a vaccine, and soon. Otherwise we are looking at an extended period of economic devastation. We will be lucky if it only lasts a few years.
Dude. You posted this exact note on Real Estate as well. Can you give us a minute? Its been like 2 days - let us settle in and see where the economy is heading and if the stimulus package can help.
NP. Those of us following the economy already know that it was heading in a downward turn because he wasn’t *growing* the economy. This recent pandemic has put the inevitable events into fast forward, with a few monkey wrenches for kicks.
Anonymous
03/23/2020 12:29
Subject: Re:Second Great Depression
Anonymous wrote:I don't think people understand the magnitude of what is coming as a result of the pandemic.
Businesses large and small are in debt to their necks. Without cash flow, they will go bankrupt. We are about to see a huge wave of bankruptcies and massive layoffs.
One of the signs of this is that both stocks and bonds are selling off at the same time. That means people are not shifting money from stocks to bonds for safety, they are instead trying to liquidate all their investments (even at a loss) and raise cash as fast as possible to pay off debt. This will only work in the short term. If the economy is still halted months from now, bankruptcy is the only option. Jobless claims are already exploding, and a thousand bucks per American from the federal government won't make up the difference.
The government is preparing bailouts, but they can't bail out every industry. The nation can't afford it because our government is also deeply in debt. We are now adding trillions to the national debt in a matter of weeks while facing a fiscal cliff due to lack of tax revenue. The federal government's fiscal situation was already precarious, and this may tip it into our country's first default.
The only thing that will really help is a vaccine, and soon. Otherwise we are looking at an extended period of economic devastation. We will be lucky if it only lasts a few years.
The only thing will help is a president and congress who have solid plans for lifting people and small businesses up. Right now both the president and Dem front runner have told big corps nothing will change for them.
Anonymous
03/23/2020 12:25
Subject: Second Great Depression
Anonymous wrote:I actually see the private market stepping up where government has failed.
Confirmation bias is a hell of a drug.
(FWIW, I agree. But government is the only institution with the duty to solve collective action problems. Private markets only do it for the $$$.)
Anonymous
03/23/2020 12:23
Subject: Second Great Depression
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I can tell you one thing, this crisis has turned me from a left winger to a right winger. The number of people instantly begging for a handout, posting stuff about saving the homeless, saving the elderly. Schools focused on getting meals delivered to poor people who couldn't be bothered to make a PB+J for their kids at home instead of actually teaching. A stimulus bill jammed up because "it's too focused on corporations." I say let the poor and old have whatever outcome they may. It's not my job to sacrifice my children's education and future to save some boomers and homeless people
Left-winger? You would rather let the Treasury secretary have a 500-billion slush fund than some individuals getting economic relief? You’re not fooling anyone, Trumpkin.
I voted Gore, Kerry, Obama, Obama, Clinton. Never again.
Tea Party?
But, I don't see them.
Anonymous
03/23/2020 12:23
Subject: Second Great Depression
I actually see the private market stepping up where government has failed.
Anonymous
03/23/2020 12:21
Subject: Second Great Depression
Anonymous wrote:I can tell you one thing, this crisis has turned me from a left winger to a right winger. The number of people instantly begging for a handout, posting stuff about saving the homeless, saving the elderly. Schools focused on getting meals delivered to poor people who couldn't be bothered to make a PB+J for their kids at home instead of actually teaching. A stimulus bill jammed up because "it's too focused on corporations." I say let the poor and old have whatever outcome they may. It's not my job to sacrifice my children's education and future to save some boomers and homeless people
Conservatism is dead. Trump killed it. The right advocates for socialism for millionaires and corporations. The left advocates for socialism for the masses. No matter who is in power, we are a socialist country. Fiscal conservatism is left. Personal responsibility is dead.
Anonymous
03/23/2020 12:15
Subject: Second Great Depression
Anonymous wrote:I can tell you one thing, this crisis has turned me from a left winger to a right winger. The number of people instantly begging for a handout, posting stuff about saving the homeless, saving the elderly. Schools focused on getting meals delivered to poor people who couldn't be bothered to make a PB+J for their kids at home instead of actually teaching. A stimulus bill jammed up because "it's too focused on corporations." I say let the poor and old have whatever outcome they may. It's not my job to sacrifice my children's education and future to save some boomers and homeless people
Let the corporations fend for themselves too. Ridiculous how quickly they come around asking for a handout. Airlines are asking for grants I.e. free money, not loans. Shameful.
Anonymous
03/23/2020 10:22
Subject: Second Great Depression
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Big QE today. Thank
God
Yes thank god for hyper inflation
The dollar has actually strengthened over the past two weeks. If nobody spends any money in a 70% service economy, we don't have to worry about inflation too much
Anonymous
03/23/2020 10:02
Subject: Second Great Depression
Anonymous wrote:Big QE today. Thank
God
Yes thank god for hyper inflation