Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
As of March 19, 2020, 15:35 GMT, we have 10,767 cases and 160 deaths.

This is a massive failure by Trump.

This is a massive failure of communism, state control, authoritarianism and a far left wing government who wanted to give the facade that they had everything under control but didn't. China is 10000% at fault for the vast majority of this. Moronic Democrats will attempt to politicize this for cheap gains, but the general public isn't stupid. We all know it was because China tried to cover it up, silenced doctors, wasted months since Nov/Dec to raise the alarm, destroyed and falsified data, and let millions of people travel from where the problem was to all over the planet.

The ability to contain and mitigate was lost all the way back when China let 5 million people leave Wuhan during Lunar New Year. Absolutely NO country on Earth can contain it at this rate. If Trump is to blame, then why is Italy suffering so bad? If Trump is to blame, then why is Iran digging mass burial graves? If Trump is to blame, why can't a country like Denmark control it? Get bent. If we enacted a no fly/banned all people from China from coming in back in Nov. Democrats would be screaming about racism.

It is a massive failure of both China and Trump. China failed to contain and Trump failed to prepare (due to his arrogance). It is not an “either / or” scenario. The only thing that really matters is finding a vaccine or other drugs that limit its impact. Once that happens, things will start to return to normal. Until then uncertainty will reign and death rates will accelerate. Isolation and testing will help slow it down, but due to Trump’s lack of preparation and arrogant messaging we are behind the testing and isolation curve. Thankfully, we are a federated nation and governors are starting to take the actions Trump has failed to do. He’s in over his head, and it’s obvious, but we’ll persevere despite him.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
As of March 19, 2020, 15:35 GMT, we have 10,767 cases and 160 deaths.

This is a massive failure by Trump.

This is a massive failure of communism, state control, authoritarianism and a far left wing government who wanted to give the facade that they had everything under control but didn't. China is 10000% at fault for the vast majority of this. Moronic Democrats will attempt to politicize this for cheap gains, but the general public isn't stupid. We all know it was because China tried to cover it up, silenced doctors, wasted months since Nov/Dec to raise the alarm, destroyed and falsified data, and let millions of people travel from where the problem was to all over the planet.

The ability to contain and mitigate was lost all the way back when China let 5 million people leave Wuhan during Lunar New Year. Absolutely NO country on Earth can contain it at this rate. If Trump is to blame, then why is Italy suffering so bad? If Trump is to blame, then why is Iran digging mass burial graves? If Trump is to blame, why can't a country like Denmark control it? Get bent. If we enacted a no fly/banned all people from China from coming in back in Nov. Democrats would be screaming about racism.

Anonymous wrote:It's a country of OLD PEOPLE. Maybe it's time to die: peacefully, at home.

Who really wants their last gasp to be on a respirator in a hospital bed anyway?

You have to die eventually. Do it surrounded by family.

It's a country of OLD PEOPLE. Maybe it's time to die: peacefully, at home.

Who really wants their last gasp to be on a respirator in a hospital bed anyway?

You have to die eventually. Do it surrounded by family.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For many reasons, Italy is not a good comp.

We won't have as high a percentage of deaths, but there is a good chance we will have the highest percentage of sick people in the world and that our hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Based on?

Extrapolating out the exponential curve out a week or two. We are where Italy was a week ago and have a higher growth rate.

On Tuesday, based on a 30% growth rate, I predicted we would have 10,000 cases by today. Well we have more like a 45% growth rate which gave us 20,000 cases today.

Thanks. I don’t even think number of cases is really a useful metric at this juncture. The numbers are all over the place because people have simply stopped testing or are only testing those with the worst symptoms. None of these are apples to apples comparisons. On the whole, I say we fare better than Italy.

Well, we have several datasets that include testing all or almost all of those who were exposed. One is from the Diamond Princess and one is from South Korean. Both suggest a death rate around 1%. We can also use the Diamond Princess to estimate a maximum number likely to be infected. About 20% of the people on the Diamond Princess were infected. 20% of the US population is around 65 million. One per cent of that is 650,000 deaths. This is what has everybody freaking out. If you play around with my numbers to account for various uncertainties, you still get a large number of deaths, and worst epidemic since the Spanish Flu. Also, about 20% of people have a severe case than penetrates into the lungs. Most of those people survive, but a significant number will develop scarred lungs, which will impair their health for the rest of their lives. This isn't talked about so much, but it also is causing experts to freak out.

If your brain has trouble absorbing this, just understand that epidemiologist make these estimates for a living and most of them are freaking out.

You are wrong. In three months this will look like one of the biggest hype jobs ever. Do more research.

I can always be wrong, but I provided my research and analysis to you, and all you did was say, "you are wrong, do more research." Umm, no. You do your own research and analysis. Well see who is right in a few months. But I'm pretty sure I'm right because it's just math now. Hell, I'll tell you how many dead people we'll have in two weeks. About 6,000. Don't believe me now. But if I'm right, will you believe you might, just might, be wrong.

Lol. Bookmarked.

“LOL” because people dying is just a joke to Trumpsters.

The overreaction is a bit humorous. This mayyyyyy end up being a slight uptick in deaths from a normal flu season. 99% of the deaths in Italy are from patients with one or multiple comorbidities. Many deaths from those are actually being attributed to CV. There is a difference between dying with CV and dying because of CV. I guess we shall see when it all shakes out.

Not a trumpster btw

I didn't base my estimate on anything to do with Italy. I based it on an exponential growth formula. Deaths have been growing by an average of about 25% a day for the last two weeks. That means deaths are quintupling every 7 days. On March 13, we had 49 total deaths. March 20 we had 256. So if the trend continues, we will have 1,250 dead by March 27 and 6,250 by April 3. It's really simple math, but it's counter intuitive because we tend to think linearly rather than exponentially. So unless something intervenes, the trend will continue.

The rate of growth will not stay the same. Take a cue from the other countries, many of whom have already come through the worst (Japan, SK). None of them kept growing exponentially because there were interventions. This is not a math equation. Human intervention is at work. Your projections will look wildly off the mark when all of the data is sorted.

First you say don't look at Italy, then you say look at South Korea and Japan. Last I checked, we weren't very much like those countries either.

First you say the data can't be trusted. Then based on nothing more than this lack of trustworthy data you make predictions about the data.

You are just making a bunch of assumptions, then assuming they must be right because... reasons.

Which is why I made a prediction that can be tested. Not based on math alone. But also based on what we are actually doing (and not doing) right now.

You'll see.

The point is none of the data right now is reliable because we don’t know what is being counted and even if you do look at data available, nothing is close to as bad as what you’re projecting. Is there some particular reason why the US will fare as badly as you’re projecting other than you’re little formula? This isn’t some plug and play scenario.

We will see indeed.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For many reasons, Italy is not a good comp.

We won't have as high a percentage of deaths, but there is a good chance we will have the highest percentage of sick people in the world and that our hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Based on?

Extrapolating out the exponential curve out a week or two. We are where Italy was a week ago and have a higher growth rate.

On Tuesday, based on a 30% growth rate, I predicted we would have 10,000 cases by today. Well we have more like a 45% growth rate which gave us 20,000 cases today.

Thanks. I don’t even think number of cases is really a useful metric at this juncture. The numbers are all over the place because people have simply stopped testing or are only testing those with the worst symptoms. None of these are apples to apples comparisons. On the whole, I say we fare better than Italy.

Well, we have several datasets that include testing all or almost all of those who were exposed. One is from the Diamond Princess and one is from South Korean. Both suggest a death rate around 1%. We can also use the Diamond Princess to estimate a maximum number likely to be infected. About 20% of the people on the Diamond Princess were infected. 20% of the US population is around 65 million. One per cent of that is 650,000 deaths. This is what has everybody freaking out. If you play around with my numbers to account for various uncertainties, you still get a large number of deaths, and worst epidemic since the Spanish Flu. Also, about 20% of people have a severe case than penetrates into the lungs. Most of those people survive, but a significant number will develop scarred lungs, which will impair their health for the rest of their lives. This isn't talked about so much, but it also is causing experts to freak out.

If your brain has trouble absorbing this, just understand that epidemiologist make these estimates for a living and most of them are freaking out.

You are wrong. In three months this will look like one of the biggest hype jobs ever. Do more research.

I can always be wrong, but I provided my research and analysis to you, and all you did was say, "you are wrong, do more research." Umm, no. You do your own research and analysis. Well see who is right in a few months. But I'm pretty sure I'm right because it's just math now. Hell, I'll tell you how many dead people we'll have in two weeks. About 6,000. Don't believe me now. But if I'm right, will you believe you might, just might, be wrong.

Lol. Bookmarked.

“LOL” because people dying is just a joke to Trumpsters.

The overreaction is a bit humorous. This mayyyyyy end up being a slight uptick in deaths from a normal flu season. 99% of the deaths in Italy are from patients with one or multiple comorbidities. Many deaths from those are actually being attributed to CV. There is a difference between dying with CV and dying because of CV. I guess we shall see when it all shakes out.

Not a trumpster btw

I didn't base my estimate on anything to do with Italy. I based it on an exponential growth formula. Deaths have been growing by an average of about 25% a day for the last two weeks. That means deaths are quintupling every 7 days. On March 13, we had 49 total deaths. March 20 we had 256. So if the trend continues, we will have 1,250 dead by March 27 and 6,250 by April 3. It's really simple math, but it's counter intuitive because we tend to think linearly rather than exponentially. So unless something intervenes, the trend will continue.

The rate of growth will not stay the same. Take a cue from the other countries, many of whom have already come through the worst (Japan, SK). None of them kept growing exponentially because there were interventions. This is not a math equation. Human intervention is at work. Your projections will look wildly off the mark when all of the data is sorted.

First you say don't look at Italy, then you say look at South Korea and Japan. Last I checked, we weren't very much like those countries either.

First you say the data can't be trusted. Then based on nothing more than this lack of trustworthy data you make predictions about the data.

You are just making a bunch of assumptions, then assuming they must be right because... reasons.

Which is why I made a prediction that can be tested. Not based on math alone. But also based on what we are actually doing (and not doing) right now.

You'll see.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For many reasons, Italy is not a good comp.

We won't have as high a percentage of deaths, but there is a good chance we will have the highest percentage of sick people in the world and that our hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Based on?

Extrapolating out the exponential curve out a week or two. We are where Italy was a week ago and have a higher growth rate.

On Tuesday, based on a 30% growth rate, I predicted we would have 10,000 cases by today. Well we have more like a 45% growth rate which gave us 20,000 cases today.

Thanks. I don’t even think number of cases is really a useful metric at this juncture. The numbers are all over the place because people have simply stopped testing or are only testing those with the worst symptoms. None of these are apples to apples comparisons. On the whole, I say we fare better than Italy.

Well, we have several datasets that include testing all or almost all of those who were exposed. One is from the Diamond Princess and one is from South Korean. Both suggest a death rate around 1%. We can also use the Diamond Princess to estimate a maximum number likely to be infected. About 20% of the people on the Diamond Princess were infected. 20% of the US population is around 65 million. One per cent of that is 650,000 deaths. This is what has everybody freaking out. If you play around with my numbers to account for various uncertainties, you still get a large number of deaths, and worst epidemic since the Spanish Flu. Also, about 20% of people have a severe case than penetrates into the lungs. Most of those people survive, but a significant number will develop scarred lungs, which will impair their health for the rest of their lives. This isn't talked about so much, but it also is causing experts to freak out.

If your brain has trouble absorbing this, just understand that epidemiologist make these estimates for a living and most of them are freaking out.

You are wrong. In three months this will look like one of the biggest hype jobs ever. Do more research.

I can always be wrong, but I provided my research and analysis to you, and all you did was say, "you are wrong, do more research." Umm, no. You do your own research and analysis. Well see who is right in a few months. But I'm pretty sure I'm right because it's just math now. Hell, I'll tell you how many dead people we'll have in two weeks. About 6,000. Don't believe me now. But if I'm right, will you believe you might, just might, be wrong.

Lol. Bookmarked.

“LOL” because people dying is just a joke to Trumpsters.

The overreaction is a bit humorous. This mayyyyyy end up being a slight uptick in deaths from a normal flu season. 99% of the deaths in Italy are from patients with one or multiple comorbidities. Many deaths from those are actually being attributed to CV. There is a difference between dying with CV and dying because of CV. I guess we shall see when it all shakes out.

Not a trumpster btw

I didn't base my estimate on anything to do with Italy. I based it on an exponential growth formula. Deaths have been growing by an average of about 25% a day for the last two weeks. That means deaths are quintupling every 7 days. On March 13, we had 49 total deaths. March 20 we had 256. So if the trend continues, we will have 1,250 dead by March 27 and 6,250 by April 3. It's really simple math, but it's counter intuitive because we tend to think linearly rather than exponentially. So unless something intervenes, the trend will continue.

The rate of growth will not stay the same. Take a cue from the other countries, many of whom have already come through the worst (Japan, SK). None of them kept growing exponentially because there were interventions. This is not a math equation. Human intervention is at work. Your projections will look wildly off the mark when all of the data is sorted.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For many reasons, Italy is not a good comp.

We won't have as high a percentage of deaths, but there is a good chance we will have the highest percentage of sick people in the world and that our hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Based on?

Extrapolating out the exponential curve out a week or two. We are where Italy was a week ago and have a higher growth rate.

On Tuesday, based on a 30% growth rate, I predicted we would have 10,000 cases by today. Well we have more like a 45% growth rate which gave us 20,000 cases today.

Thanks. I don’t even think number of cases is really a useful metric at this juncture. The numbers are all over the place because people have simply stopped testing or are only testing those with the worst symptoms. None of these are apples to apples comparisons. On the whole, I say we fare better than Italy.

Well, we have several datasets that include testing all or almost all of those who were exposed. One is from the Diamond Princess and one is from South Korean. Both suggest a death rate around 1%. We can also use the Diamond Princess to estimate a maximum number likely to be infected. About 20% of the people on the Diamond Princess were infected. 20% of the US population is around 65 million. One per cent of that is 650,000 deaths. This is what has everybody freaking out. If you play around with my numbers to account for various uncertainties, you still get a large number of deaths, and worst epidemic since the Spanish Flu. Also, about 20% of people have a severe case than penetrates into the lungs. Most of those people survive, but a significant number will develop scarred lungs, which will impair their health for the rest of their lives. This isn't talked about so much, but it also is causing experts to freak out.

If your brain has trouble absorbing this, just understand that epidemiologist make these estimates for a living and most of them are freaking out.

You are wrong. In three months this will look like one of the biggest hype jobs ever. Do more research.

I can always be wrong, but I provided my research and analysis to you, and all you did was say, "you are wrong, do more research." Umm, no. You do your own research and analysis. Well see who is right in a few months. But I'm pretty sure I'm right because it's just math now. Hell, I'll tell you how many dead people we'll have in two weeks. About 6,000. Don't believe me now. But if I'm right, will you believe you might, just might, be wrong.

Lol. Bookmarked.

“LOL” because people dying is just a joke to Trumpsters.

The overreaction is a bit humorous. This mayyyyyy end up being a slight uptick in deaths from a normal flu season. 99% of the deaths in Italy are from patients with one or multiple comorbidities. Many deaths from those are actually being attributed to CV. There is a difference between dying with CV and dying because of CV. I guess we shall see when it all shakes out.

Not a trumpster btw

I didn't base my estimate on anything to do with Italy. I based it on an exponential growth formula. Deaths have been growing by an average of about 25% a day for the last two weeks. That means deaths are quintupling every 7 days. On March 13, we had 49 total deaths. March 20 we had 256. So if the trend continues, we will have 1,250 dead by March 27 and 6,250 by April 3. It's really simple math, but it's counter intuitive because we tend to think linearly rather than exponentially. So unless something intervenes, the trend will continue.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For many reasons, Italy is not a good comp.

We won't have as high a percentage of deaths, but there is a good chance we will have the highest percentage of sick people in the world and that our hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Based on?

Extrapolating out the exponential curve out a week or two. We are where Italy was a week ago and have a higher growth rate.

On Tuesday, based on a 30% growth rate, I predicted we would have 10,000 cases by today. Well we have more like a 45% growth rate which gave us 20,000 cases today.

Thanks. I don’t even think number of cases is really a useful metric at this juncture. The numbers are all over the place because people have simply stopped testing or are only testing those with the worst symptoms. None of these are apples to apples comparisons. On the whole, I say we fare better than Italy.

Well, we have several datasets that include testing all or almost all of those who were exposed. One is from the Diamond Princess and one is from South Korean. Both suggest a death rate around 1%. We can also use the Diamond Princess to estimate a maximum number likely to be infected. About 20% of the people on the Diamond Princess were infected. 20% of the US population is around 65 million. One per cent of that is 650,000 deaths. This is what has everybody freaking out. If you play around with my numbers to account for various uncertainties, you still get a large number of deaths, and worst epidemic since the Spanish Flu. Also, about 20% of people have a severe case than penetrates into the lungs. Most of those people survive, but a significant number will develop scarred lungs, which will impair their health for the rest of their lives. This isn't talked about so much, but it also is causing experts to freak out.

If your brain has trouble absorbing this, just understand that epidemiologist make these estimates for a living and most of them are freaking out.

You are wrong. In three months this will look like one of the biggest hype jobs ever. Do more research.

I can always be wrong, but I provided my research and analysis to you, and all you did was say, "you are wrong, do more research." Umm, no. You do your own research and analysis. Well see who is right in a few months. But I'm pretty sure I'm right because it's just math now. Hell, I'll tell you how many dead people we'll have in two weeks. About 6,000. Don't believe me now. But if I'm right, will you believe you might, just might, be wrong.

Lol. Bookmarked.

“LOL” because people dying is just a joke to Trumpsters.

The overreaction is a bit humorous. This mayyyyyy end up being a slight uptick in deaths from a normal flu season. 99% of the deaths in Italy are from patients with one or multiple comorbidities. Many deaths from those are actually being attributed to CV. There is a difference between dying with CV and dying because of CV. I guess we shall see when it all shakes out.

Not a trumpster btw

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For many reasons, Italy is not a good comp.

We won't have as high a percentage of deaths, but there is a good chance we will have the highest percentage of sick people in the world and that our hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Based on?

Extrapolating out the exponential curve out a week or two. We are where Italy was a week ago and have a higher growth rate.

On Tuesday, based on a 30% growth rate, I predicted we would have 10,000 cases by today. Well we have more like a 45% growth rate which gave us 20,000 cases today.

Thanks. I don’t even think number of cases is really a useful metric at this juncture. The numbers are all over the place because people have simply stopped testing or are only testing those with the worst symptoms. None of these are apples to apples comparisons. On the whole, I say we fare better than Italy.

Well, we have several datasets that include testing all or almost all of those who were exposed. One is from the Diamond Princess and one is from South Korean. Both suggest a death rate around 1%. We can also use the Diamond Princess to estimate a maximum number likely to be infected. About 20% of the people on the Diamond Princess were infected. 20% of the US population is around 65 million. One per cent of that is 650,000 deaths. This is what has everybody freaking out. If you play around with my numbers to account for various uncertainties, you still get a large number of deaths, and worst epidemic since the Spanish Flu. Also, about 20% of people have a severe case than penetrates into the lungs. Most of those people survive, but a significant number will develop scarred lungs, which will impair their health for the rest of their lives. This isn't talked about so much, but it also is causing experts to freak out.

If your brain has trouble absorbing this, just understand that epidemiologist make these estimates for a living and most of them are freaking out.

You are wrong. In three months this will look like one of the biggest hype jobs ever. Do more research.

I can always be wrong, but I provided my research and analysis to you, and all you did was say, "you are wrong, do more research." Umm, no. You do your own research and analysis. Well see who is right in a few months. But I'm pretty sure I'm right because it's just math now. Hell, I'll tell you how many dead people we'll have in two weeks. About 6,000. Don't believe me now. But if I'm right, will you believe you might, just might, be wrong.

Lol. Bookmarked.

“LOL” because people dying is just a joke to Trumpsters.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For many reasons, Italy is not a good comp.

We won't have as high a percentage of deaths, but there is a good chance we will have the highest percentage of sick people in the world and that our hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Based on?

Extrapolating out the exponential curve out a week or two. We are where Italy was a week ago and have a higher growth rate.

On Tuesday, based on a 30% growth rate, I predicted we would have 10,000 cases by today. Well we have more like a 45% growth rate which gave us 20,000 cases today.

Thanks. I don’t even think number of cases is really a useful metric at this juncture. The numbers are all over the place because people have simply stopped testing or are only testing those with the worst symptoms. None of these are apples to apples comparisons. On the whole, I say we fare better than Italy.

Well, we have several datasets that include testing all or almost all of those who were exposed. One is from the Diamond Princess and one is from South Korean. Both suggest a death rate around 1%. We can also use the Diamond Princess to estimate a maximum number likely to be infected. About 20% of the people on the Diamond Princess were infected. 20% of the US population is around 65 million. One per cent of that is 650,000 deaths. This is what has everybody freaking out. If you play around with my numbers to account for various uncertainties, you still get a large number of deaths, and worst epidemic since the Spanish Flu. Also, about 20% of people have a severe case than penetrates into the lungs. Most of those people survive, but a significant number will develop scarred lungs, which will impair their health for the rest of their lives. This isn't talked about so much, but it also is causing experts to freak out.

If your brain has trouble absorbing this, just understand that epidemiologist make these estimates for a living and most of them are freaking out.

You are wrong. In three months this will look like one of the biggest hype jobs ever. Do more research.

I can always be wrong, but I provided my research and analysis to you, and all you did was say, "you are wrong, do more research." Umm, no. You do your own research and analysis. Well see who is right in a few months. But I'm pretty sure I'm right because it's just math now. Hell, I'll tell you how many dead people we'll have in two weeks. About 6,000. Don't believe me now. But if I'm right, will you believe you might, just might, be wrong.

Lol. Bookmarked.

Anonymous wrote:Pence stood on the WH podium and lied to all of us.
He went on Sat/Sunday talk shows two weeks ago to say 4 MILLION test would be “shipped” by 3/13/2020.

There are no tests.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For many reasons, Italy is not a good comp.

We won't have as high a percentage of deaths, but there is a good chance we will have the highest percentage of sick people in the world and that our hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Based on?

Extrapolating out the exponential curve out a week or two. We are where Italy was a week ago and have a higher growth rate.

On Tuesday, based on a 30% growth rate, I predicted we would have 10,000 cases by today. Well we have more like a 45% growth rate which gave us 20,000 cases today.

Thanks. I don’t even think number of cases is really a useful metric at this juncture. The numbers are all over the place because people have simply stopped testing or are only testing those with the worst symptoms. None of these are apples to apples comparisons. On the whole, I say we fare better than Italy.

Well, we have several datasets that include testing all or almost all of those who were exposed. One is from the Diamond Princess and one is from South Korean. Both suggest a death rate around 1%. We can also use the Diamond Princess to estimate a maximum number likely to be infected. About 20% of the people on the Diamond Princess were infected. 20% of the US population is around 65 million. One per cent of that is 650,000 deaths. This is what has everybody freaking out. If you play around with my numbers to account for various uncertainties, you still get a large number of deaths, and worst epidemic since the Spanish Flu. Also, about 20% of people have a severe case than penetrates into the lungs. Most of those people survive, but a significant number will develop scarred lungs, which will impair their health for the rest of their lives. This isn't talked about so much, but it also is causing experts to freak out.

If your brain has trouble absorbing this, just understand that epidemiologist make these estimates for a living and most of them are freaking out.

You are wrong. In three months this will look like one of the biggest hype jobs ever. Do more research.

I can always be wrong, but I provided my research and analysis to you, and all you did was say, "you are wrong, do more research." Umm, no. You do your own research and analysis. Well see who is right in a few months. But I'm pretty sure I'm right because it's just math now. Hell, I'll tell you how many dead people we'll have in two weeks. About 6,000. Don't believe me now. But if I'm right, will you believe you might, just might, be wrong.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The best set of data is from China as long as you assume they aren't lying:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/health/covid-19-recovery-rates-intl/index.html

Data from China shows the majority of people with Covid-19 only suffer mild symptoms, then recover

There are almost 1-2 million deaths and over 10 million cases due to tuberculosis per year. You think COVID is scary? Try multi-drug resistant TB. Do we all panic over MDR TB? No. Does the economy stop because of TB? No. Is TB transmissible by air/droplets? Yes. So much stupid panicking over a coronavirus that by in large produces mild symptoms in the vast, vast majority of cases. The media goes into a frenzy over the tailend of a bell curve. Jeez, who ever knew there was a continuum of severity for a disease? Oh wait, that's right, that's like every disease....a fraction of people will always have more severe responses than others. That's not a good reason to paralyze society.

Mark my words. We will all look back at this and shake our head in disbelief at the over panic. The remedy, which includes injecting trillions upon trillions of dollars in debt into the economy, will be far more painful for millions of future generations of Americans than the actual disease itself. The US already has over a 100% debt-to-gdp ratio, and now we'll be adding trillions more because of an overreaction to a bug that causes mild symptoms in the vast majority of cases. Ever see a country that defaults on its debt or that has to enact severe austerity measures because it has too much debt? That will end up causing much more human suffering than this bug. Good lord, its as if humans have never co-existed with viruses throughout our course of evolution. Oh wait, that's right, we have a highly advanced immune system to deal with, which is why the vast majority of COVID cases will result in a mild syndrome.

Sure, protect the most vulnerable and help with care with those who are in the far tail end of the bellcurve who end up needed intense care. But that's not a good reason to paralyze the entire world economy for a disease that produces mild symptoms in most cases. No one pees their pants about MDR tuberculosis, which is far nastier.

515 people died from tuberculosis in the US last year. We will exceed that next week with coronavirus.

Obligatory rant over why we shouldn't panic over *coronavirus* and why the US will never impose on itself the cruel austerity measures we imposed on so many others.