Anonymous
Post 03/19/2020 21:46     Subject: Re:WHO is pulling all of their money out of the stock market?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Is this a time to increase the proportion of stocks I buy with my 401K contributions (vs bonds)? had reduced that proportion because I hope to retire in 4 years.


What % of bonds are you holding now? It is definitely a good buying opportunity as far as stocks are concerned, but you need to be in a position to withstand the volatility. I personally think it's a good way to mitigate the damage that your portfolio has suffered.


I have all mutual funds. About half of those are in equities. The rest of the mix is annuity, some bonds, a little real estate. But half equities.


Sound like you are actually doing pretty good. It doesn't sound like your portfolio is overly conservative. Maybe a little? If the percentage of stocks to bonds is around 75% stocks and 25% bonds, then that is a really good place to be for most people. When you have bonds that lean towards 50% of your portfolio, you really get hammered by inflation in the long run. Look up the Trinity study chart and you will see what I mean. For people who have a screwed up asset allocation prior to this debacle, this could be a good time to buy stocks while prices are low. I would also recommend checking out bogleheads forum before doing anything crazy. My father uses a well known and highly successful investment advisor, and I swear that bogleheads gives much better advice.


Source? My understanding is that the Trinity Study showed that a 50/50 portfolio is pretty robust to inflation. Compare standard retirement probability of success 4% withdrawal rate for 30 years for a 100/0 and a 50/50.
Anonymous
Post 03/19/2020 20:57     Subject: WHO is pulling all of their money out of the stock market?
I sold20% of my portfolio last week. Im staying out until S&P hits 2000 or so
Anonymous
Post 03/19/2020 19:26     Subject: Re:WHO is pulling all of their money out of the stock market?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Is this a time to increase the proportion of stocks I buy with my 401K contributions (vs bonds)? had reduced that proportion because I hope to retire in 4 years.


What % of bonds are you holding now? It is definitely a good buying opportunity as far as stocks are concerned, but you need to be in a position to withstand the volatility. I personally think it's a good way to mitigate the damage that your portfolio has suffered.


I have all mutual funds. About half of those are in equities. The rest of the mix is annuity, some bonds, a little real estate. But half equities.


Sound like you are actually doing pretty good. It doesn't sound like your portfolio is overly conservative. Maybe a little? If the percentage of stocks to bonds is around 75% stocks and 25% bonds, then that is a really good place to be for most people. When you have bonds that lean towards 50% of your portfolio, you really get hammered by inflation in the long run. Look up the Trinity study chart and you will see what I mean. For people who have a screwed up asset allocation prior to this debacle, this could be a good time to buy stocks while prices are low. I would also recommend checking out bogleheads forum before doing anything crazy. My father uses a well known and highly successful investment advisor, and I swear that bogleheads gives much better advice.
Anonymous
Post 03/19/2020 17:28     Subject: WHO is pulling all of their money out of the stock market?
Who?

Well, Senator Burr, for one.

https://www.propublica.org/article/senator-dumped-up-to-1-6-million-of-stock-after-reassuring-public-about-coronavirus-preparedness
Anonymous
Post 03/19/2020 13:52     Subject: WHO is pulling all of their money out of the stock market?
Anonymous wrote:I cannot look at my 401k. Why are you pulling your money out????????


since monday, been investing 10 to 20 thousand a day in stock market in following

vanguard capital appreciation
AAPL
GOOG

60 years old, 5 years from retirment. Leaving retirement as is in Vanguard 2025 Retirement or 2030 Retirement funds
Anonymous
Post 03/19/2020 13:02     Subject: Re:WHO is pulling all of their money out of the stock market?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Is this a time to increase the proportion of stocks I buy with my 401K contributions (vs bonds)? had reduced that proportion because I hope to retire in 4 years.


What % of bonds are you holding now? It is definitely a good buying opportunity as far as stocks are concerned, but you need to be in a position to withstand the volatility. I personally think it's a good way to mitigate the damage that your portfolio has suffered.


I have all mutual funds. About half of those are in equities. The rest of the mix is annuity, some bonds, a little real estate. But half equities.
Anonymous
Post 03/19/2020 12:35     Subject: Re:WHO is pulling all of their money out of the stock market?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Is this a time to increase the proportion of stocks I buy with my 401K contributions (vs bonds)? had reduced that proportion because I hope to retire in 4 years.


What % of bonds are you holding now? It is definitely a good buying opportunity as far as stocks are concerned, but you need to be in a position to withstand the volatility. I personally think it's a good way to mitigate the damage that your portfolio has suffered.


My muni bond ETF lost about 8% so far during this market drop. It's safer but not totally bullet proof.
Anonymous
Post 03/18/2020 23:53     Subject: Re:WHO is pulling all of their money out of the stock market?
Just think of all the inheritance windfalls that will occur! We should be preparing for a wave of new car purchases!
Anonymous
Post 03/18/2020 23:12     Subject: Re:WHO is pulling all of their money out of the stock market?
Anonymous wrote:Is this a time to increase the proportion of stocks I buy with my 401K contributions (vs bonds)? had reduced that proportion because I hope to retire in 4 years.


What % of bonds are you holding now? It is definitely a good buying opportunity as far as stocks are concerned, but you need to be in a position to withstand the volatility. I personally think it's a good way to mitigate the damage that your portfolio has suffered.
Anonymous
Post 03/18/2020 22:36     Subject: Re:WHO is pulling all of their money out of the stock market?
Is this a time to increase the proportion of stocks I buy with my 401K contributions (vs bonds)? had reduced that proportion because I hope to retire in 4 years.
Anonymous
Post 03/18/2020 21:16     Subject: WHO is pulling all of their money out of the stock market?
No. We are buying every month like we usually do and right now we're getting some mighty good bargains...

Dollar cost averaging. It pays off over time.
Anonymous
Post 03/18/2020 21:11     Subject: Re:WHO is pulling all of their money out of the stock market?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Honestly, only idiots are pulling their money out. There is a boatload of evidence that shows that market timing is a losers strategy.

Now if you have a bunch of cash sitting around and you are willing to take a moderate amount of risk, it's hard to argue with buying stocks at a 40% discount (russell 2000).


There are a lot of idiots then with the market down as much as it is.
I wish I had more cash to invest in the next few months, but unfortunately we don't.


You ain't seen nothing yet. People who think they have the conviction to hold will sell. And sell. And sell.. until there are no sellers left. That's when I'm going in. Sitting on a ton of cash.


Unless it gets to a point where I don't feel safe living in the US, my money is staying in. I don't care if the Dow hits 5000. If its a bear for the next 5 years (which I doubt), that's a good thing for longterm investors.
Anonymous
Post 03/18/2020 20:42     Subject: WHO is pulling all of their money out of the stock market?
We’re 60’s and not pulling ours out. We have some in safe places. It’s hit bottom, it will go back up. Our kids can spend it if we don’t.
Anonymous
Post 03/18/2020 20:32     Subject: Re:WHO is pulling all of their money out of the stock market?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:For those saying "this is like everything else, just wait this out a few months and the market will bounce back."

This is the most recent literature about the virus. This is what governors are basing their shut downs on. Read this and then get back to us with your casual attitude about it:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/...9-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of public health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducing contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain specifically) and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission.


675,000 Americans were killed by the Spanish Flu in 1918, when the population was MUCH HIGHER. Be very scared of this.


This is not 1918 and most of the figures tossed around are factoring in NO intervention.

Also, 1918 was followed by 10 years of expansion and innovation. And there will be incredible innovation as a result of this pandemic. Everything we are seeing right now - all of these drastic changes to our society - will fuel innovation.

I am not saying this won’t be bad; it will be quite bad. But remember that no governor wants to be the headline for the state that didn’t act. With proper social distancing and self quarantines we can combat this. I know we are really focused on Italy right now, but China’s number are encouraging:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/


“It is interesting to contrast the response of the stock market to the Spanish flu in 1919 with the coronavirus in 2020. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 2,000 points in four days out of fear that the coronavirus will continue to spread and impact the global economy. The fear is that cities will become quarantined, supply chains will be broken, world trade will be impacted and growth in the global economy will slow down.

However, the impact of the Spanish Flu on the stock market was minimal. If you look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1918 and 1919, you can see that the stock market was relatively unaffected by any of the three waves of the Spanish flu. Of course, the Spanish flu occurred in 1918 while World War I was raging in Europe so the war had a larger impact on the stock market than the flu. There were few if any global supply chains that the Spanish Flu could disrupt because the war made supply chains nonexistent. The second and worst wave of flu occurred at the end of World War I when peace was finally achieved after four years of devastating destruction. It is interesting that there was little impact on the stock market of World War I ending on November 11, 1918. Perhaps euphoria about the conclusion of the war was offset by concerns about the Spanish flu.

It is comforting to see that when the final wave of the Spanish flu subsided in February 1919, the market began an increase of 50% which lasted until November of 1919. Whether this increase occurred because of the end of World War I or the end of the flu or both is impossible to say, but it does provide encouragement that once the coronavirus begins to subside, the market will bounce back once again.”

https://www.globaltrademag.com/the-spanish-flu-and-the-stock-market-the-pandemic-of-1919/

I agree that we will recover but there are some modern factors that will make this pandemic affect economics intensely before a recovery.


Anonymous
Post 03/18/2020 20:30     Subject: Re:WHO is pulling all of their money out of the stock market?
Nobody knows what is going to happen. Who knows? Maybe chloroquine will bail us out.