Anonymous
Post 05/02/2019 22:16     Subject: Greater Greater Washington story on school enrollment growth
Anonymous wrote:What about a lottery only system for high school? Students can apply to a special focus program or one of 4 comprehensive high schools.

High school students can travel independently -- most do already.

Turn Wilson into a middle/elementary school to deal with WOTP crowding.



Wilson is the only general high school WOTP, and it is the largest and most crowded. That is the one you'd close?????
Anonymous
Post 05/02/2019 22:11     Subject: Greater Greater Washington story on school enrollment growth
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Nick, you mean well, but overcrowing is a WOTP issue and I don't think overhauling the whole system for everyone is going to be acceptable EOTP and EOTR. If you think people in Ward 3 will accept a lottery assignment at Ballou, think again.

The answer IMO is to strengthen the existing schools so that people want to attend, and to consider reopening or expanding spaces that are available, as needed. If Wilson-zoned parents cared more about quality elsewhere, it could happen. But you seem to assume Ward 3 conditions of overcrowing and no more spaces apply everywhere. That just isn't true.


Nick here.

Today DCPS has 13,000 empty seats so you could argue that any crowding is a policy issue not a facilities issue. But if the projections hold, in eight years those empty seats are going to be gone. This will be a new historic era for DCPS. There may be policy challenges, but there are going to be real facilities issues-- and not just WOTP.

I believe in neighborhood-based schools, for a lot of reasons. But right now nobody at any level of city government is doing the things that will need to be done to keep them a viable option.


Nick,

Did you speak with officials in DCPS and OSSE? Did they express a few of the ideas mentioned in your story? For example, you state:

"DCPS may not be able to continue as a neighborhood-based school system"
"It may not be possible to draw boundaries for each school that include the school building." --- WHAT DOES THIS EVEN MEAN?
"The city may not have the political will to spend hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars on new schools when it would mean that some existing schools would be part empty."

I'd like to know if these are the sentiments being expressed by DCPS.

Frankly, according to the statement I bolded above, it sounds like you're concluding that DCPS/OSSE is purposely undermining the neighborhood-based school system in order to bust it up. If so, this is extremely concerning. We know forced lotteries are a failure.



Nick here.

In the past few months I've spoken with councilmembers, people in the mayor's office, people in the DME's office, people from DCPS. They've all expressed versions of the same story: the enrollment surge that is coming can be handled with a combination of boundary changes and some revisions to student assignment policies. Nobody has talked about going to all-lottery, but no one has expressed any doubt about the ability to meet the demand by a few simple tweaks to the status quo. It was definitely conveyed to me that building new schools is just not going to happen.

This article had its origins when I started trying to make a map that would show where some of those boundary changes might go. I quickly got frustrated, because it seemed impossible. Then I added up the projected enrollment and projected capacity of all the elementary schools, and I got that the city is going to be 886 seats short. No amount of moving boundaries or changing assignment policies creates seats. So I said, OK, assume you can put two new elementary schools anywhere you want, with 900 seats, and try again.

It still didn't work. All of the schools that needed to shed students were concentrated in the same parts of the city. My own local elementary, Key, for example, is going to be about 150 kids over. The closest elementary that is projected to have space is Walker-Jones, in Shaw (and my old in-boundary school when I used to live over there). Walker-Jones is coincidentally projected to have about 150 seats. But between Key and Walker-Jones are nine other schools, and all nine of those also need to reduce their student count. In fact, the two closest schools to Walker-Jones, Seaton and Thomson, are going to need to move about 190 students between them, and could take all the capacity at Walker-Jones just by themselves.

I started seeing scenarios like Key sends 150 students to Mann. Mann is projected to be 125 over, and if you just added 150 now it's 275 over. So it needs to send 275 to it's closest neighbor, Stoddert. Stoddert sends 340 to Hyde, Hyde sends 350 to Francis-Stevens, Francis-Stevens sends 520 to Thomson, and so on. These aren't boundary adjustments, these are wholesale turnovers. Look at the map, every school in the city would have to change its boundaries to get all the kids to fit.


"It may not be possible to draw boundaries for each school that include the school building." --- WHAT DOES THIS EVEN MEAN?


This is an important point and I'm sorry that I didn't make it more eloquently. DCPS has 64 elementary schools right now. We're going to need two more no matter what, so let's assume 66 in eight years. There are an infinite number of ways you could divide the city into 66 zones, each with the appropriate number of kids for one of the elementary schools. However, if you add the constraints that the zone physically contains the school, and is continuous, and is reasonably compact, it may not be possible at all. The reason for this is that the schools that are going to be crowded are concentrated, and the schools that are going to have seats are concentrated. There is a mismatch between the schools that the city has and the schools that it needs.

The city is going to face a choice: build new schools where they are needed; have ridiculously gerrymandered boundaries where families often drive past several other schools to get to their assigned school, or go all-lottery.
Anonymous
Post 05/02/2019 22:11     Subject: Re:Greater Greater Washington story on school enrollment growth
Then maybe the city would finally start investing whatever in the communities AND families to help give kids a chance to succeed. Because it isn’t all on the schools. And we can’t fix the schools without fixing the poverty, unemployment and trauma families are going through and children carry with them every day.


Are you in sixth grade? Or possibly you just graduated from college and moved here for an internship?

It is sweet that you believe "we" could actually "fix" "the poverty, unemployment and trauma" that is multi, multi-generational in the District. No, of course schools can't do this alone. In fact, no entity in the District is going to accomplish this.

Typing this makes me sad.

— old person who's lived here for decades
Anonymous
Post 05/02/2019 22:05     Subject: Greater Greater Washington story on school enrollment growth
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Fine. So ~600 white families now IB Wilson might leave ... but everyone else in the city is already doing this.

Wilson is NOT propping up DC schools. In report after report it is under performing. SWW, Banneker, BASIS, Latin, Ellington are all producing successful students. Wilson is not the crown jewel in the system unless you are talking about the baseball or lacrosse teams.

It has been more than 50 years since Brown v Board of Education. Your address should not determine whether you get to go to a good school. The status quo IS not working.


In an all-lottery system, no school will be a ‘good’ school.


There would still be application schools in an all-lottery system and with the already planned expansions there would be even more good seats.

If you want a big traditional high school with all the sports - you can have it. And if DCPS consolidated the number down from today they would not all be bad.


There are not enough on-grade-level students to make a school good if they are equally distributed among them, particularly when the many of the capable students are at the application high schools.[/qu

So what? Then maybe the city would finally start investing whatever in the communities AND families to help give kids a chance to succeed. Because it isn’t all on the schools. And we can’t fix the schools without fixing the poverty, unemployment and trauma families are going through and children carry with them every day.

But I guess you would probably prefer to let the entire city gentrify and pat yourself on the back for “fixing” the schools. And the diverse city you chose to live in will no longer exist.


I think the city should invest NOW in the community and families. I agree that DCPS can’t this alone.

DC addressing the social challenges is the fix that matters. Changing neighborhood schools to all-lottery doesn’t solve anything.
Anonymous
Post 05/02/2019 22:04     Subject: Greater Greater Washington story on school enrollment growth
Anonymous wrote:Fine. So ~600 white families now IB Wilson might leave ... but everyone else in the city is already doing this.

Wilson is NOT propping up DC schools. In report after report it is under performing. SWW, Banneker, BASIS, Latin, Ellington are all producing successful students. Wilson is not the crown jewel in the system unless you are talking about the baseball or lacrosse teams.

It has been more than 50 years since Brown v Board of Education. Your address should not determine whether you get to go to a good school. The status quo IS not working.


This isn't what Brown held, but thank you anyway.

Anonymous
Post 05/02/2019 22:01     Subject: Greater Greater Washington story on school enrollment growth
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Fine. So ~600 white families now IB Wilson might leave ... but everyone else in the city is already doing this.

Wilson is NOT propping up DC schools. In report after report it is under performing. SWW, Banneker, BASIS, Latin, Ellington are all producing successful students. Wilson is not the crown jewel in the system unless you are talking about the baseball or lacrosse teams.

It has been more than 50 years since Brown v Board of Education. Your address should not determine whether you get to go to a good school. The status quo IS not working.


In an all-lottery system, no school will be a ‘good’ school.


There would still be application schools in an all-lottery system and with the already planned expansions there would be even more good seats.

If you want a big traditional high school with all the sports - you can have it. And if DCPS consolidated the number down from today they would not all be bad.


There are not enough on-grade-level students to make a school good if they are equally distributed among them, particularly when the many of the capable students are at the application high schools.[/qu

So what? Then maybe the city would finally start investing whatever in the communities AND families to help give kids a chance to succeed. Because it isn’t all on the schools. And we can’t fix the schools without fixing the poverty, unemployment and trauma families are going through and children carry with them every day.

But I guess you would probably prefer to let the entire city gentrify and pat yourself on the back for “fixing” the schools. And the diverse city you chose to live in will no longer exist.
Anonymous
Post 05/02/2019 21:54     Subject: Greater Greater Washington story on school enrollment growth
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Fine. So ~600 white families now IB Wilson might leave ... but everyone else in the city is already doing this.

Wilson is NOT propping up DC schools. In report after report it is under performing. SWW, Banneker, BASIS, Latin, Ellington are all producing successful students. Wilson is not the crown jewel in the system unless you are talking about the baseball or lacrosse teams.

It has been more than 50 years since Brown v Board of Education. Your address should not determine whether you get to go to a good school. The status quo IS not working.


In an all-lottery system, no school will be a ‘good’ school.


There would still be application schools in an all-lottery system and with the already planned expansions there would be even more good seats.

If you want a big traditional high school with all the sports - you can have it. And if DCPS consolidated the number down from today they would not all be bad.


There are not enough on-grade-level students to make a school good if they are equally distributed among them, particularly when the many of the capable students are at the application high schools.
Anonymous
Post 05/02/2019 21:43     Subject: Greater Greater Washington story on school enrollment growth
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Fine. So ~600 white families now IB Wilson might leave ... but everyone else in the city is already doing this.

Wilson is NOT propping up DC schools. In report after report it is under performing. SWW, Banneker, BASIS, Latin, Ellington are all producing successful students. Wilson is not the crown jewel in the system unless you are talking about the baseball or lacrosse teams.

It has been more than 50 years since Brown v Board of Education. Your address should not determine whether you get to go to a good school. The status quo IS not working.


In an all-lottery system, no school will be a ‘good’ school.


There would still be application schools in an all-lottery system and with the already planned expansions there would be even more good seats.

If you want a big traditional high school with all the sports - you can have it. And if DCPS consolidated the number down from today they would not all be bad.
Anonymous
Post 05/02/2019 21:39     Subject: Greater Greater Washington story on school enrollment growth
Anonymous wrote:Fine. So ~600 white families now IB Wilson might leave ... but everyone else in the city is already doing this.

Wilson is NOT propping up DC schools. In report after report it is under performing. SWW, Banneker, BASIS, Latin, Ellington are all producing successful students. Wilson is not the crown jewel in the system unless you are talking about the baseball or lacrosse teams.

It has been more than 50 years since Brown v Board of Education. Your address should not determine whether you get to go to a good school. The status quo IS not working.


In an all-lottery system, no school will be a ‘good’ school.
Anonymous
Post 05/02/2019 21:35     Subject: Greater Greater Washington story on school enrollment growth
Anonymous wrote:Hey Nick! Do you have anything whatsover to say about the increase in segregation in San Francisco after they imposed the same idea that you're proposing? Do you care AT ALL about that?


Nick here.

I really don't know enough about San Francisco to comment on it.

To be clear, I'm not advocating going to all-lottery. I feel DC should be working harder to strengthen its by-right school system. It's important that there be a lottery system to offer an outlet for families who are failed by the traditional system but in my mind the fact that 75% of DC kids are going through the lottery is a sign of failure.
Anonymous
Post 05/02/2019 21:11     Subject: Greater Greater Washington story on school enrollment growth
Fine. So ~600 white families now IB Wilson might leave ... but everyone else in the city is already doing this.

Wilson is NOT propping up DC schools. In report after report it is under performing. SWW, Banneker, BASIS, Latin, Ellington are all producing successful students. Wilson is not the crown jewel in the system unless you are talking about the baseball or lacrosse teams.

It has been more than 50 years since Brown v Board of Education. Your address should not determine whether you get to go to a good school. The status quo IS not working.
Anonymous
Post 05/02/2019 21:02     Subject: Greater Greater Washington story on school enrollment growth
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:What about a lottery only system for high school? Students can apply to a special focus program or one of 4 comprehensive high schools.

High school students can travel independently -- most do already.

Turn Wilson into a middle/elementary school to deal with WOTP crowding.



We are at a Wilson feeder and I think that's a great idea. You could have innovative programming at different high schools, which kids could select based on interest. It would make the test in schools stronger too. It would be much fairer from an equity standpoint too.

But DCPS would have to be OK colocating schools, since no one elementary or middle school should be big enough to fill the building.


I'm so against it. What if you don't get into a good school? The proportion of at-risk kids in the system is so high, and DCPS' serving of them so inadequate, that it's a real possibility.


Why should the risk of a "not good school" be borne entirely by poor kids? Why shouldn't your kid, and my kid, shoulder some of that risk too? Besides, if our kids are as good as we think they are, they will get into a test-in school (which, under this hypothetical plan, would be expanded).


Because people will leave for the suburbs and then it'll be a much worse school system overall.
Anonymous
Post 05/02/2019 20:59     Subject: Greater Greater Washington story on school enrollment growth
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Wow this article is so clueless.


how so?


Because parents will never accept pure lottery, and it is not logistically feasible for people even if they liked it philosophically. The tide is turning against it as San Francisco's experience has shown.

Because someone with a clue would know that DCPS numbers are guesses at best and lies at worst. Not just the enrollment projections, but the capacity stats, are really questionable.

Because if you compare these numbers with the enrollment projections in the SY 19-20 budgets, they don't match up well.

Because DCPS can and does add capacity, e.v. Van Ness, Bard, Brookland Middle, Wells Middle. And opening new middle and high schools can result in capacity increases in other grade levels.


Per the article - DC might be particularly ripe for an all-lottery system because its neighborhood-based system isn’t particularly strong – already three quarters of the public school students attend schools they were assigned to by lottery, either charters or DCPS out-of-boundary. For them, DC already doesn’t have a neighborhood-based school system.

You may be the lucky 1 in 4 that is not dependent on the lottery, but it will not be a huge switch in culture/expectations for 75%.



An all lottery school wide system will send UMC families to the burbs likes its the 1990s. I was here then and I remember. DCPS needs to get rid of all feeder rights for OOB kids. A kid who gets into Janney OOB has to play lottery again for OOB placement into Deal. Bancroft and Oyster feed to MacFarland. Create a true test in academy at Brookland which is less than 50% capacity, to lure more UMC families from around NW to attend. But DCPS will never learn. You have to offer real rigor, tracked classes at most middle schools or the best parents won't bother.
Anonymous
Post 05/02/2019 20:52     Subject: Greater Greater Washington story on school enrollment growth
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:What about a lottery only system for high school? Students can apply to a special focus program or one of 4 comprehensive high schools.

High school students can travel independently -- most do already.

Turn Wilson into a middle/elementary school to deal with WOTP crowding.



No, but thanks. The kids that drive Wilson's moderately successful test scores won't stick around hoping to lottery into a decent program. We certainly wouldn't have.

I remember saying this to the former deputy mayor for education, and she seemed really non-plussed by the idea that the parents that DCPS wants actually have choices and won't accept uncertainty. Although I'm sure she must have heard the same thing dozens of times before, she acted like she hadn't.


You are in the minority. 75% of all students in DC are not in their IB school. And the numbers are even higher for high school given the number of application school students.

More importantly, the city frankly doesn't care if a few thousand families IB for Wilson leave any more than they would care if I left my EOTP house due to school choices I didn't like. There are plenty of people who will buy both our homes and the city will make money on the transaction fees.

The metric you are citing just isn't one that matters to the city.


Sorry, but the city does care if the schools' scores will crater. Which they will if you force families to attend an unknown school across the city when a perfectly great school is a few blocks from their house.

We live in Glover Park. I can rent my rowhouse out for $5.5K easily and net a tidy profit every month if they tell me I need to shlep my kid to Ward 6 for middle school. I live three blocks from the local MS, why would I (or any other family with means) stick around to have DCPS/OSSE tell me where to go? The families in Ward 3 are basically the financial tax base for the rest of DCPS. If you force them into city-wide lottery, they will pull up their stakes very quickly. How does the DC government make up for the short fall?


Lol at you thinking tour house would still rent for $5.5k if this scenario plays out.
Anonymous
Post 05/02/2019 20:41     Subject: Greater Greater Washington story on school enrollment growth
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:What about a lottery only system for high school? Students can apply to a special focus program or one of 4 comprehensive high schools.

High school students can travel independently -- most do already.

Turn Wilson into a middle/elementary school to deal with WOTP crowding.



We are at a Wilson feeder and I think that's a great idea. You could have innovative programming at different high schools, which kids could select based on interest. It would make the test in schools stronger too. It would be much fairer from an equity standpoint too.

But DCPS would have to be OK colocating schools, since no one elementary or middle school should be big enough to fill the building.


I'm so against it. What if you don't get into a good school? The proportion of at-risk kids in the system is so high, and DCPS' serving of them so inadequate, that it's a real possibility.


Why should the risk of a "not good school" be borne entirely by poor kids? Why shouldn't your kid, and my kid, shoulder some of that risk too? Besides, if our kids are as good as we think they are, they will get into a test-in school (which, under this hypothetical plan, would be expanded).