Anonymous
Post 05/27/2021 23:57     Subject: Re:How common is a math or reading MAP score at the 99th percentile in this area?

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Watched this thread a while before commenting. I wanted to see where the parents and trolls were steering the thread.

Some of these folks are yanking your chain... only 39.3% of CES kids were in the 95th+ percentile. Remember that CES is the upper level students within the school to start with. Of those, statistically, there is a huge difference between the number of 95th percentile and 99th percentile kids (certainly not a large number).

https://www.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/departments/sharedaccountability/reports/2019/Enriched%20and%20Accelerated%2028Jan2019%20FINAL.pdf

Remember that (a) parents that care about academics post frequently, but (b) just as frequently or more often - there are just folks yanking chains to sway opinions. Why? The Magnet and CES programs have slipped a bit on standards as of late, so MCPS needs all the boosts they can get right now.


I highly doubt that as that makes no sense given some of our high scoring straight A kids didn't even get on the waitlist.


That's... most likely for a completely different reason. Remember that the Magnet isn't really the Magnet anymore, so there are probably more 99th percentiles distributed out in CES classes at the various schools.

https://www.iwf.org/2020/09/25/montgomery-county-parents-of-school-children-kept-in-dark-on-purpose/

Remember that whole Asian-American Magnet lawsuit?

https://bethesdamagazine.com/bethesda-beat/schools/mcps-sued-over-magnet-school-admissions/

MCPS moved to dismiss.

https://thermtide.com/13501/news/mcps-files-to-dismiss-ms-magnet-admissions-lawsuit/

On what basis is MCPS moving to dismiss the lawsuit? I think I read somewhere that MCPS claimed that since they changed the Magnet admission standards to a minimum-cut off lottery *cough* pool, so since it's random, there is no admission criteria to violate therefore it's a moot point? Something like that? (Can't find the document, but if someone else can confirm?)

My guess is that there are probably parents with kids on the extreme end of the academic scale that are pretty frustrated by about now.


Magnet scores were up a lot with the advent of universal testing since it wasn't just a few hundred kids whose parents appled but half the county that was considerered, but this year it's lottery of anyone in the 85% or higher so bascially a random group of kids who would maybe qualify for IM math in 6th.


Trying to understand what your saying here, but the net effect is that MCPS effectively destroyed the Magnet Program. It's nothing more than CES-program-level kids just with better perks.

I'm more interested in how many kids admitted to magnet were MCPS staff kids less than 95 percentile.
Anonymous
Post 05/27/2021 23:45     Subject: How common is a math or reading MAP score at the 99th percentile in this area?

Anonymous wrote:Uhhhhhhh 99th percentile (99.0) = 1 per 100. There are ~150,000 students in MCPS. If we were exactly like the nation as a whole, we'd have 1500 kids in the 99th. If our 98th is like the 99th nationally, we'd have 3000. And then, DCUM skews whiter and wealthier than most places online, and those kids, for a variety of reasons, tend to score higher. And then there's going to be a strong self-selection bias for a thread titled "How common is a math or reading MAP score at the 99th percentile in this area?"

I never understand why people think folks are lying or trolling. They could be? But it's easily possible that 10 people on DCUM have kids in the 99th percentile.


I'm guessing you're not a math or engineering major... 150K students are spread out across 12 Grades (not counting K..).

Using your figure of 3000, thats about 250 per grade level spread out across all schools.

Using TPMS as the example, that seems just about right, I would think. In 2019, about half-ish were picked up by TPMS, another (fifth'ish)? by Eastern, another set spread out amongst the CES programs, etc.
Anonymous
Post 05/27/2021 07:18     Subject: Re:How common is a math or reading MAP score at the 99th percentile in this area?

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Remember that a magnet can pull children from one school to another, so the probability a CES program has a large 99th percentile cohort is correspondingly lower.

Another interesting statistic - TPMS was the school with the highest level of 95%+. 95.6% of the 137 students (e.g. 131) scored in the 95th percentile or higher.

Using the SWAG method - somewhere between 1/15th (stingy SWAG) to 1/5th (generous SWAG), means that it's most likely that somewhere between 9 to 26 students actually scored within the 99th percentile at TPMS. Why such a big range? First, it's statistics so there are a lot of other factors to consider (ex. enrichment programs, statistical anomalies, etc.), and second, because MCPS never releases exact data (which would lead to ranking of students).


What 137 students at TPMS? There are around 350 per grade and 125 in the magnet program (per grade).


I read that to indicate 137 scored over the 95% according to them but yes TOMS has close to 1000 students I also suspect their numbers are off since 90% of the 375 magnet students score in the top 5% in years past it will likely be much lower next year because of the 85% lottery
Anonymous
Post 05/26/2021 15:29     Subject: How common is a math or reading MAP score at the 99th percentile in this area?

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
My CES 5th grader has always tested inside the 99th percentile (latest was 262 for math and 250 for reading), but did not win the lottery to get into the magnet middle school. We plan on enriching the home school curriculum ourselves and seeing what new hobbies she'd like to take up.

I have another child who is 2e and he always tests around the 97th-98th percentile (but he takes days to complete his testing). Since I know exactly how good their understanding is for each of them, I have come to realize that there is a significant difference between the 97th-98th band and scoring within the 99th band: the extreme percentiles have a lot of spread in cognitive thinking. It isn't the same spread as the one between the 50th vs the 51st percentile range, for example.




Hm. I have two very different kids who both score in the 99th and of also say that there seems to be a big spread but actually it’s all about my own biases. The kid who sounds less articulate than the other is actually the higher scorer. I’d guess it’s the same in your kids case.


PP you replied to. In our case, my daughter definitely has more abilities than her brother, or myself, really. It's rather obvious in our day-to-day interactions.


I have two kids with IQ scores at 140+. They are entirely different. BUT, while they are both gifted, only DC1 appears to others to be gifted. This is because DC1 presents in the "traditional" way -- highly verbal, a follower of rules, poised enough to talk to adults, and an accumulator of facts. So, because she knows so many factoids and is willing to insert them appropriately into conversations with adults, she appears gifted.

DC2, has a language disability, does not accumulate a lot of facts, at least not in fields or ways that are of interest in conversation with strangers (adult or child). DC2 has ADHD Inattentive and doesn't always follow rules, has difficulty breaking down complex tasks and is a slow processor, so to teachers he appears lazy and unmotivated. In fact, DC2 is far more gifted in a way than DC1 -- DC2 can see the whole forest, take in complex scientific ideas and manipulate them to come up with brilliant, novel ways of solving problems or new questions to explore. DC1 basically spits back a vast ocean of facts but does not have the same critical ability, although DC1's analytical ability is far above same age peers.

This is not a humble brag. I say this to illustrate that even parents can overlook a bright child's abilities. Bright kids often hide their abilities from others because they recognize that to display them is either not socially appropriate or will only result in more work & higher expectations on boring matters. TBH, I did not really recognize DC2's giftedness until the educational advocate pulled us aside and advised us to apply him to a magnet program, and some relatives who are PhD scientists also commented. Once DC2 was medicated for ADHD Inattentive and got necessary accommodations, he was able to display his brain power in more traditional ways.

You cannot evaluate a 2E child in the same way as a non-2E child. Speed of processing does not equate to ability/intelligence, that is why a psychologist will compute a GAI (which leaves out processing speed) instead of a FSIQ on IQ testing.


Thank you. I am the PP who said that my child who “presents” as less advanced actually scores higher. He doesn’t have a diagnosis but doesn’t have the executive functioning of his brother or the ability to speak confidently with adults. But I’m slowly realizing I’ve overlooked just how his brain works because he presents differently than my older child.
Anonymous
Post 05/26/2021 14:59     Subject: How common is a math or reading MAP score at the 99th percentile in this area?

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
My CES 5th grader has always tested inside the 99th percentile (latest was 262 for math and 250 for reading), but did not win the lottery to get into the magnet middle school. We plan on enriching the home school curriculum ourselves and seeing what new hobbies she'd like to take up.

I have another child who is 2e and he always tests around the 97th-98th percentile (but he takes days to complete his testing). Since I know exactly how good their understanding is for each of them, I have come to realize that there is a significant difference between the 97th-98th band and scoring within the 99th band: the extreme percentiles have a lot of spread in cognitive thinking. It isn't the same spread as the one between the 50th vs the 51st percentile range, for example.




Hm. I have two very different kids who both score in the 99th and of also say that there seems to be a big spread but actually it’s all about my own biases. The kid who sounds less articulate than the other is actually the higher scorer. I’d guess it’s the same in your kids case.


PP you replied to. In our case, my daughter definitely has more abilities than her brother, or myself, really. It's rather obvious in our day-to-day interactions.


I have two kids with IQ scores at 140+. They are entirely different. BUT, while they are both gifted, only DC1 appears to others to be gifted. This is because DC1 presents in the "traditional" way -- highly verbal, a follower of rules, poised enough to talk to adults, and an accumulator of facts. So, because she knows so many factoids and is willing to insert them appropriately into conversations with adults, she appears gifted.

DC2, has a language disability, does not accumulate a lot of facts, at least not in fields or ways that are of interest in conversation with strangers (adult or child). DC2 has ADHD Inattentive and doesn't always follow rules, has difficulty breaking down complex tasks and is a slow processor, so to teachers he appears lazy and unmotivated. In fact, DC2 is far more gifted in a way than DC1 -- DC2 can see the whole forest, take in complex scientific ideas and manipulate them to come up with brilliant, novel ways of solving problems or new questions to explore. DC1 basically spits back a vast ocean of facts but does not have the same critical ability, although DC1's analytical ability is far above same age peers.

This is not a humble brag. I say this to illustrate that even parents can overlook a bright child's abilities. Bright kids often hide their abilities from others because they recognize that to display them is either not socially appropriate or will only result in more work & higher expectations on boring matters. TBH, I did not really recognize DC2's giftedness until the educational advocate pulled us aside and advised us to apply him to a magnet program, and some relatives who are PhD scientists also commented. Once DC2 was medicated for ADHD Inattentive and got necessary accommodations, he was able to display his brain power in more traditional ways.

You cannot evaluate a 2E child in the same way as a non-2E child. Speed of processing does not equate to ability/intelligence, that is why a psychologist will compute a GAI (which leaves out processing speed) instead of a FSIQ on IQ testing.
Anonymous
Post 05/26/2021 13:22     Subject: Re:How common is a math or reading MAP score at the 99th percentile in this area?

Anonymous wrote:Remember that a magnet can pull children from one school to another, so the probability a CES program has a large 99th percentile cohort is correspondingly lower.

Another interesting statistic - TPMS was the school with the highest level of 95%+. 95.6% of the 137 students (e.g. 131) scored in the 95th percentile or higher.

Using the SWAG method - somewhere between 1/15th (stingy SWAG) to 1/5th (generous SWAG), means that it's most likely that somewhere between 9 to 26 students actually scored within the 99th percentile at TPMS. Why such a big range? First, it's statistics so there are a lot of other factors to consider (ex. enrichment programs, statistical anomalies, etc.), and second, because MCPS never releases exact data (which would lead to ranking of students).


What 137 students at TPMS? There are around 350 per grade and 125 in the magnet program (per grade).
Anonymous
Post 05/26/2021 11:14     Subject: How common is a math or reading MAP score at the 99th percentile in this area?

Uhhhhhhh 99th percentile (99.0) = 1 per 100. There are ~150,000 students in MCPS. If we were exactly like the nation as a whole, we'd have 1500 kids in the 99th. If our 98th is like the 99th nationally, we'd have 3000. And then, DCUM skews whiter and wealthier than most places online, and those kids, for a variety of reasons, tend to score higher. And then there's going to be a strong self-selection bias for a thread titled "How common is a math or reading MAP score at the 99th percentile in this area?"

I never understand why people think folks are lying or trolling. They could be? But it's easily possible that 10 people on DCUM have kids in the 99th percentile.
Anonymous
Post 05/26/2021 10:31     Subject: Re:How common is a math or reading MAP score at the 99th percentile in this area?

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Watched this thread a while before commenting. I wanted to see where the parents and trolls were steering the thread.

Some of these folks are yanking your chain... only 39.3% of CES kids were in the 95th+ percentile. Remember that CES is the upper level students within the school to start with. Of those, statistically, there is a huge difference between the number of 95th percentile and 99th percentile kids (certainly not a large number).

https://www.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/departments/sharedaccountability/reports/2019/Enriched%20and%20Accelerated%2028Jan2019%20FINAL.pdf

Remember that (a) parents that care about academics post frequently, but (b) just as frequently or more often - there are just folks yanking chains to sway opinions. Why? The Magnet and CES programs have slipped a bit on standards as of late, so MCPS needs all the boosts they can get right now.


I highly doubt that as that makes no sense given some of our high scoring straight A kids didn't even get on the waitlist.


That's... most likely for a completely different reason. Remember that the Magnet isn't really the Magnet anymore, so there are probably more 99th percentiles distributed out in CES classes at the various schools.

https://www.iwf.org/2020/09/25/montgomery-county-parents-of-school-children-kept-in-dark-on-purpose/

Remember that whole Asian-American Magnet lawsuit?

https://bethesdamagazine.com/bethesda-beat/schools/mcps-sued-over-magnet-school-admissions/

MCPS moved to dismiss.

https://thermtide.com/13501/news/mcps-files-to-dismiss-ms-magnet-admissions-lawsuit/

On what basis is MCPS moving to dismiss the lawsuit? I think I read somewhere that MCPS claimed that since they changed the Magnet admission standards to a minimum-cut off lottery *cough* pool, so since it's random, there is no admission criteria to violate therefore it's a moot point? Something like that? (Can't find the document, but if someone else can confirm?)

My guess is that there are probably parents with kids on the extreme end of the academic scale that are pretty frustrated by about now.


Magnet scores were up a lot with the advent of universal testing since it wasn't just a few hundred kids whose parents appled but half the county that was considerered, but this year it's lottery of anyone in the 85% or higher so bascially a random group of kids who would maybe qualify for IM math in 6th.
Anonymous
Post 05/26/2021 07:20     Subject: Re:How common is a math or reading MAP score at the 99th percentile in this area?

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Watched this thread a while before commenting. I wanted to see where the parents and trolls were steering the thread.

Some of these folks are yanking your chain... only 39.3% of CES kids were in the 95th+ percentile. Remember that CES is the upper level students within the school to start with. Of those, statistically, there is a huge difference between the number of 95th percentile and 99th percentile kids (certainly not a large number).

https://www.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/departments/sharedaccountability/reports/2019/Enriched%20and%20Accelerated%2028Jan2019%20FINAL.pdf

Remember that (a) parents that care about academics post frequently, but (b) just as frequently or more often - there are just folks yanking chains to sway opinions. Why? The Magnet and CES programs have slipped a bit on standards as of late, so MCPS needs all the boosts they can get right now.


I highly doubt that as that makes no sense given some of our high scoring straight A kids didn't even get on the waitlist.


That's... most likely for a completely different reason. Remember that the Magnet isn't really the Magnet anymore, so there are probably more 99th percentiles distributed out in CES classes at the various schools.

https://www.iwf.org/2020/09/25/montgomery-county-parents-of-school-children-kept-in-dark-on-purpose/

Remember that whole Asian-American Magnet lawsuit?

https://bethesdamagazine.com/bethesda-beat/schools/mcps-sued-over-magnet-school-admissions/

MCPS moved to dismiss.

https://thermtide.com/13501/news/mcps-files-to-dismiss-ms-magnet-admissions-lawsuit/

On what basis is MCPS moving to dismiss the lawsuit? I think I read somewhere that MCPS claimed that since they changed the Magnet admission standards to a minimum-cut off lottery *cough* pool, so since it's random, there is no admission criteria to violate therefore it's a moot point? Something like that? (Can't find the document, but if someone else can confirm?)

My guess is that there are probably parents with kids on the extreme end of the academic scale that are pretty frustrated by about now.
Anonymous
Post 05/25/2021 22:22     Subject: How common is a math or reading MAP score at the 99th percentile in this area?

Anonymous wrote:Likely to be admitted to a gifted program? Or just like everyone else so fine in general ed?


1 out of 100
Anonymous
Post 05/25/2021 21:26     Subject: Re:How common is a math or reading MAP score at the 99th percentile in this area?

Remember that a magnet can pull children from one school to another, so the probability a CES program has a large 99th percentile cohort is correspondingly lower.

Another interesting statistic - TPMS was the school with the highest level of 95%+. 95.6% of the 137 students (e.g. 131) scored in the 95th percentile or higher.

Using the SWAG method - somewhere between 1/15th (stingy SWAG) to 1/5th (generous SWAG), means that it's most likely that somewhere between 9 to 26 students actually scored within the 99th percentile at TPMS. Why such a big range? First, it's statistics so there are a lot of other factors to consider (ex. enrichment programs, statistical anomalies, etc.), and second, because MCPS never releases exact data (which would lead to ranking of students).
Anonymous
Post 05/25/2021 21:15     Subject: Re:How common is a math or reading MAP score at the 99th percentile in this area?

Anonymous wrote:Watched this thread a while before commenting. I wanted to see where the parents and trolls were steering the thread.

Some of these folks are yanking your chain... only 39.3% of CES kids were in the 95th+ percentile. Remember that CES is the upper level students within the school to start with. Of those, statistically, there is a huge difference between the number of 95th percentile and 99th percentile kids (certainly not a large number).

https://www.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/departments/sharedaccountability/reports/2019/Enriched%20and%20Accelerated%2028Jan2019%20FINAL.pdf

Remember that (a) parents that care about academics post frequently, but (b) just as frequently or more often - there are just folks yanking chains to sway opinions. Why? The Magnet and CES programs have slipped a bit on standards as of late, so MCPS needs all the boosts they can get right now.


I highly doubt that as that makes no sense given some of our high scoring straight A kids didn't even get on the waitlist.
Anonymous
Post 05/25/2021 21:08     Subject: Re:How common is a math or reading MAP score at the 99th percentile in this area?

Watched this thread a while before commenting. I wanted to see where the parents and trolls were steering the thread.

Some of these folks are yanking your chain... only 39.3% of CES kids were in the 95th+ percentile. Remember that CES is the upper level students within the school to start with. Of those, statistically, there is a huge difference between the number of 95th percentile and 99th percentile kids (certainly not a large number).

https://www.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/departments/sharedaccountability/reports/2019/Enriched%20and%20Accelerated%2028Jan2019%20FINAL.pdf

Remember that (a) parents that care about academics post frequently, but (b) just as frequently or more often - there are just folks yanking chains to sway opinions. Why? The Magnet and CES programs have slipped a bit on standards as of late, so MCPS needs all the boosts they can get right now.
Anonymous
Post 05/25/2021 12:47     Subject: How common is a math or reading MAP score at the 99th percentile in this area?

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
My CES 5th grader has always tested inside the 99th percentile (latest was 262 for math and 250 for reading), but did not win the lottery to get into the magnet middle school. We plan on enriching the home school curriculum ourselves and seeing what new hobbies she'd like to take up.

I have another child who is 2e and he always tests around the 97th-98th percentile (but he takes days to complete his testing). Since I know exactly how good their understanding is for each of them, I have come to realize that there is a significant difference between the 97th-98th band and scoring within the 99th band: the extreme percentiles have a lot of spread in cognitive thinking. It isn't the same spread as the one between the 50th vs the 51st percentile range, for example.




Hm. I have two very different kids who both score in the 99th and of also say that there seems to be a big spread but actually it’s all about my own biases. The kid who sounds less articulate than the other is actually the higher scorer. I’d guess it’s the same in your kids case.


PP you replied to. In our case, my daughter definitely has more abilities than her brother, or myself, really. It's rather obvious in our day-to-day interactions.



And I’d say the same (older kid has been exceptional and remarkable verbally and academically since the age of three), except the MAP scores are slightly different in the other direction. Your daughter is older, yes? If their MAP scores are similar you are likely underestimating your younger child.
Anonymous
Post 05/25/2021 08:15     Subject: How common is a math or reading MAP score at the 99th percentile in this area?

Anonymous wrote:My kids who did get in to CES and magnet middle school got 98-99th percentile scores consistently and their elementary school acted as if those scores were unusually high and certainly not the time a dozen they are made out to be here.

The percentiles are computed by fitting the RIT score to a normal distribution ("bell curve") based on a national, weighted sample using a stratified sampling method. The population they're trying to capture are all students in the United States, which means that local deviations are possible. Compare the county's mean to the national mean.

Also, due to the nationwide decline in student achievement (as reported by standardized test scores) that occurred in the 2015-2020 time frame, the reported percentiles using the 2015 tables are likely to be an underestimate. NWEA corrected for that with a new norming sample in the 2020 tables.

According to insider information, their model's fit to a normal distribution breaks down at around the 97.5% percentile or about 1.96 SD (NWEA doesn't officially publish how well their model fits, especially at the extremes). Their model focuses more on capturing growth percentiles accurately, a decision they pay for with higher residuals.

So we can perhaps say with some confidence that only about 1 out of 40 students (nationally) scores at or above the 97.5% percentile with respect to the norming sample, but we probably cannot say the same for the 99% or 99.9% (the latter of which NWEA rightfully doesn't even include in their tables). So if your child scored 3, 4, or 5 standard deviations above the mean that doesn't mean they're one in 741, 31,574, or 3,486,914 if you cared to look up those numbers