I don't foresee 8% in 2019. Not even 6%.

Yes but different factors this time. A decade of no interest has inflated asset values. Fed is now realizing this and reversing with 3 more possible hikes this year and interest rates up to 6% by 2019. Capital flight from China = lots of rich Chinese buying properties in the US to store capital. The multifamily overbuilding will affect rents in the next few years, this will affect mom and pop landlords if they rely on rent to pay the mortgage. Financing is much tighter this time around but remember that during the last bubble many more people defaulted on prime mortgages than subprime. Subprime lenders declaring bankruptcy was the domino that started the crisis - but my guess is that rates potentially up to 6-8% in the next 3 years will affect valus. People will walk away from a very high mortgage payment if the value of the home doesnt hold up. Higher rates will affect the economy substantially potentially causing lay offs bc of debt service at higher amts.

Unfortunate we had to settle for a flip because we could not find a house in our price range that was not already flipped.

Next time we hope to have enough cash to be able to compete with the flippers and do the renovations ourselves the right way, with better quality material.

Our house was sold to flippers for 330k and we purchased it for 550k.

Hmm... no.

However, supply is tighter this year than in recent years. If this trend continues, we could reach bubble definition. But I suspect it has to do with the new Trump administration and accompanying jitters. Things should calm down in the next few years.

No. The housing bubble from 2006-2008 was not caused by real estate that was inflated in price. It was caused by shady financing including zero down mortgages, interest only mortgages, adjustable rate mortgages, etc that allowed people without the financial stability to buy a house, to buy real estate. These people did not create any equity. Essentially they were renting from the banks. But when the mortgages adjusted, then these people could no longer afford to pay the mortgage on the house and with no equity, they could not sell the house for a loss, whether modest or not.

In this case, real estate prices are inflated, but they are being inflated by market forces not fictitious financing. In this case, the influx of higher income wage earners into the DC metro area are causing a flood of people with financial means to be looking for real estate. There are people who have money, but no place to live. And when you have more buyers than housing stock, then prices rise. We have a constant rise of population in the DC metro area and a disproportionate number of higher earners (those with HHI over $200K) who can afford homes. There is a lack of housing stock. So prices rise. But in addition, this is also fueling flippers. Flippers are taking homes in good areas which have not been cared for and they are renovating and reselling to the hordes of buyers who are waiting for more expensive housing stock. Yes, it is taking housing stock away from middle class buyers to give to UMC and rich folks, but that's where the money is.

This market is not going to reset more than a small correction because there are still far too many people with good incomes who are waiting to buy houses in the right areas.

^^^ you need to explain to the kids at home why they can't list these homes on the open market.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think there's a bubble per se, but I do think flippers are essentially stripping the equity out of some neighborhoods by charging up to the very limit of what the market will bear.

That's what always happens, what do you suggest, they lower prices?

They are inflating prices by doing needlessly expensive flips on houses that may not need all that work.

You sound like a cry baby.

lol. the question is whether DC housing costs are inflated. I think that in some neighborhoods, flippers essentially have a monopoly on unrenovated houses that they buy in the 300-400 range, then flip and sell in the 700 range. I think this inflates the price of the home. FWIW I can actually afford an $800k home, but I did not want to buy a house that someone else had decided to throw away/strip away the equity on with a crappy flip.

I mean, to an extent, this is true. But really it's oversimplified. These flippers aren't buying 300-400k homes for what they are worth. The market rate is probably closer to 500 for a house that is unrennovated (but in a neighborhood where it can get 800 post flip). The challenge is that many of these homes cannot be financed because they are a hundred years old and haven't been maintained. They buy with cash or hard money and turn it into a home that can be sold on the normal market.

The real, unrennovated orice for a home you would fix up yourself (given your upper/lower bounds) is like 500-600. And it's not the flippers buying asbestosy shells causing it to cost that. it's the theee other yuppies who watch hgtv and dream of customizing their kicthebs that you are bidding against.

Maybe, but we don't actually know the conditions of these houses. In some cases these are middle class neighborhoods; it's not like the owners were letting the houses fall down around them. Likely many of them are fine structurally, have updated electric, functioning systems, etc. It would be good if we actually knew, though.

Not maybe. Definitely. It's not like all those owners are colluding to make less money to prevent you from getting a house. If they could sell on the open market to a conventional buyer, you better believe they would take your 4.25 over the developers 350. But they can't, so they take the cash.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Funny- I managed to find an unrenovated house.

In what neighborhood? Any tips? We found a (mostly) unrenovated house as well, but I think that's only because the difference between renovation and the actual market price would be to little for flippers to mark up.

'09 south Arlington - you can still find them

Eww k thanks

Hahah my sentiment as well. Just didn't want to say it.

Ok keep crying about your lack of equity while I keep building it. Dumbass.

Actually we own a small place west of 16th St NW in DC. Husband and I are thinking about buying something bigger and we are willing to renovate. Yeah, no to south Arlington. We are not selling in our nice neighborhood to buy a shitty tear down in South Arlington.

That's for the best. South Arlington would like to remain c#nt free.

Dude. You have anger issues or need to get laid. You called someone a dumbass but got put in your place. Maybe you're angry your investment in South Arlington is not panning out because no one wants to live there?

Hahahhaha go f#ck yourself. My neighborhood is full of million dollar new builds where 400k shacks stood last year. I'm sorry you had no vision and had to have the "in" neighborhood. I'll be taking my equity with me to me to my forever home in a couple of years.

You must be confusing your neighborhood with the expensive one north of 50 where 100s of properties sold for more than $1M. Good luck selling in south Arlington.

And thank you but I actually bought in NW DC 9 years ago, in a neighborhood my friends were calling "sketchy" (it wasn't - it was safer than Dupont when I bought it) but full of beautiful houses where $1.2M buys you a teardown.

Lol! Hilarious! Sadly There are currently no homes for sale in my neighborhood. You missed your chance! good luck in the lottery. My blue ribbon school starting to get a little crowded anyway. Besides we don't want the wrong kind around here. Toodles!

Why would I leave my beautiful DC neighborhood to live with a bunch of people that put 8 people in a 1 bedroom apartment?

And don't woryr about my kids - they are going to private school no matter what.

Totally incoherent. Other than your D.C. Pubic schools aren't acceptable, that part I got.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think there's a bubble per se, but I do think flippers are essentially stripping the equity out of some neighborhoods by charging up to the very limit of what the market will bear.

That's what always happens, what do you suggest, they lower prices?

They are inflating prices by doing needlessly expensive flips on houses that may not need all that work.

You sound like a cry baby.

lol. the question is whether DC housing costs are inflated. I think that in some neighborhoods, flippers essentially have a monopoly on unrenovated houses that they buy in the 300-400 range, then flip and sell in the 700 range. I think this inflates the price of the home. FWIW I can actually afford an $800k home, but I did not want to buy a house that someone else had decided to throw away/strip away the equity on with a crappy flip.

I mean, to an extent, this is true. But really it's oversimplified. These flippers aren't buying 300-400k homes for what they are worth. The market rate is probably closer to 500 for a house that is unrennovated (but in a neighborhood where it can get 800 post flip). The challenge is that many of these homes cannot be financed because they are a hundred years old and haven't been maintained. They buy with cash or hard money and turn it into a home that can be sold on the normal market.

The real, unrennovated orice for a home you would fix up yourself (given your upper/lower bounds) is like 500-600. And it's not the flippers buying asbestosy shells causing it to cost that. it's the theee other yuppies who watch hgtv and dream of customizing their kicthebs that you are bidding against.

Maybe, but we don't actually know the conditions of these houses. In some cases these are middle class neighborhoods; it's not like the owners were letting the houses fall down around them. Likely many of them are fine structurally, have updated electric, functioning systems, etc. It would be good if we actually knew, though.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Funny- I managed to find an unrenovated house.

In what neighborhood? Any tips? We found a (mostly) unrenovated house as well, but I think that's only because the difference between renovation and the actual market price would be to little for flippers to mark up.

'09 south Arlington - you can still find them

Eww k thanks

Hahah my sentiment as well. Just didn't want to say it.

Ok keep crying about your lack of equity while I keep building it. Dumbass.

Actually we own a small place west of 16th St NW in DC. Husband and I are thinking about buying something bigger and we are willing to renovate. Yeah, no to south Arlington. We are not selling in our nice neighborhood to buy a shitty tear down in South Arlington.

That's for the best. South Arlington would like to remain c#nt free.

Dude. You have anger issues or need to get laid. You called someone a dumbass but got put in your place. Maybe you're angry your investment in South Arlington is not panning out because no one wants to live there?

Hahahhaha go f#ck yourself. My neighborhood is full of million dollar new builds where 400k shacks stood last year. I'm sorry you had no vision and had to have the "in" neighborhood. I'll be taking my equity with me to me to my forever home in a couple of years.

You must be confusing your neighborhood with the expensive one north of 50 where 100s of properties sold for more than $1M. Good luck selling in south Arlington.

And thank you but I actually bought in NW DC 9 years ago, in a neighborhood my friends were calling "sketchy" (it wasn't - it was safer than Dupont when I bought it) but full of beautiful houses where $1.2M buys you a teardown.

Lol! Hilarious! Sadly There are currently no homes for sale in my neighborhood. You missed your chance! good luck in the lottery. My blue ribbon school starting to get a little crowded anyway. Besides we don't want the wrong kind around here. Toodles!

Why would I leave my beautiful DC neighborhood to live with a bunch of people that put 8 people in a 1 bedroom apartment?

And don't woryr about my kids - they are going to private school no matter what.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think there's a bubble per se, but I do think flippers are essentially stripping the equity out of some neighborhoods by charging up to the very limit of what the market will bear.

That's what always happens, what do you suggest, they lower prices?

They are inflating prices by doing needlessly expensive flips on houses that may not need all that work.

You sound like a cry baby.

lol. the question is whether DC housing costs are inflated. I think that in some neighborhoods, flippers essentially have a monopoly on unrenovated houses that they buy in the 300-400 range, then flip and sell in the 700 range. I think this inflates the price of the home. FWIW I can actually afford an $800k home, but I did not want to buy a house that someone else had decided to throw away/strip away the equity on with a crappy flip.

I mean, to an extent, this is true. But really it's oversimplified. These flippers aren't buying 300-400k homes for what they are worth. The market rate is probably closer to 500 for a house that is unrennovated (but in a neighborhood where it can get 800 post flip). The challenge is that many of these homes cannot be financed because they are a hundred years old and haven't been maintained. They buy with cash or hard money and turn it into a home that can be sold on the normal market.

The real, unrennovated orice for a home you would fix up yourself (given your upper/lower bounds) is like 500-600. And it's not the flippers buying asbestosy shells causing it to cost that. it's the theee other yuppies who watch hgtv and dream of customizing their kicthebs that you are bidding against.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Funny- I managed to find an unrenovated house.

In what neighborhood? Any tips? We found a (mostly) unrenovated house as well, but I think that's only because the difference between renovation and the actual market price would be to little for flippers to mark up.

'09 south Arlington - you can still find them

Eww k thanks

Hahah my sentiment as well. Just didn't want to say it.

Ok keep crying about your lack of equity while I keep building it. Dumbass.

Actually we own a small place west of 16th St NW in DC. Husband and I are thinking about buying something bigger and we are willing to renovate. Yeah, no to south Arlington. We are not selling in our nice neighborhood to buy a shitty tear down in South Arlington.

That's for the best. South Arlington would like to remain c#nt free.

Dude. You have anger issues or need to get laid. You called someone a dumbass but got put in your place. Maybe you're angry your investment in South Arlington is not panning out because no one wants to live there?

Hahahhaha go f#ck yourself. My neighborhood is full of million dollar new builds where 400k shacks stood last year. I'm sorry you had no vision and had to have the "in" neighborhood. I'll be taking my equity with me to me to my forever home in a couple of years.

You must be confusing your neighborhood with the expensive one north of 50 where 100s of properties sold for more than $1M. Good luck selling in south Arlington.

And thank you but I actually bought in NW DC 9 years ago, in a neighborhood my friends were calling "sketchy" (it wasn't - it was safer than Dupont when I bought it) but full of beautiful houses where $1.2M buys you a teardown.

Lol! Hilarious! Sadly There are currently no homes for sale in my neighborhood. You missed your chance! good luck in the lottery. My blue ribbon school starting to get a little crowded anyway. Besides we don't want the wrong kind around here. Toodles!

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Funny- I managed to find an unrenovated house.

In what neighborhood? Any tips? We found a (mostly) unrenovated house as well, but I think that's only because the difference between renovation and the actual market price would be to little for flippers to mark up.

'09 south Arlington - you can still find them

Eww k thanks

Hahah my sentiment as well. Just didn't want to say it.

Ok keep crying about your lack of equity while I keep building it. Dumbass.

Actually we own a small place west of 16th St NW in DC. Husband and I are thinking about buying something bigger and we are willing to renovate. Yeah, no to south Arlington. We are not selling in our nice neighborhood to buy a shitty tear down in South Arlington.

That's for the best. South Arlington would like to remain c#nt free.

Dude. You have anger issues or need to get laid. You called someone a dumbass but got put in your place. Maybe you're angry your investment in South Arlington is not panning out because no one wants to live there?

Hahahhaha go f#ck yourself. My neighborhood is full of million dollar new builds where 400k shacks stood last year. I'm sorry you had no vision and had to have the "in" neighborhood. I'll be taking my equity with me to me to my forever home in a couple of years.

You must be confusing your neighborhood with the expensive one north of 50 where 100s of properties sold for more than $1M. Good luck selling in south Arlington.

And thank you but I actually bought in NW DC 9 years ago, in a neighborhood my friends were calling "sketchy" (it wasn't - it was safer than Dupont when I bought it) but full of beautiful houses where $1.2M buys you a teardown.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Probably not. Houses are now considered assets, not commodities - it won't go back.

You first house is a liability. If you buy a second one, a third one... and earn renting income, then you get some assets.

Your house is an asset that can become a liability.

Anonymous wrote:Probably not. Houses are now considered assets, not commodities - it won't go back.

You first house is a liability. If you buy a second one, a third one... and earn renting income, then you get some assets.