Anonymous
Post 04/18/2026 14:41     Subject: Predict DS's chances at these schools
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:My DS with a similar profile (with over 1000 hours of volunteering including leadership role, research assistant with Prof at a local university, national competition but no top 3 award, act 36, WGPA 4.9+) was rejected at Duke after ED deferral. Both waitlisted for freshman and offered sophomore transfer at Vandy RD. In at Wisconsin, UVA out of state, UNC out of states. Waitlisted at Michigan EA.
Did not apply to others.


Would bet $ that there was an issue with rigor: there was at least one if not two core areas where the student did not take the highest level course available at the high school.


Interesting. You may be right. DS did not take the world language class in the senior year. Still had 4.9+ WGPA, but it may be that Duke and Vandy care about the entire world language sequence? No idea. Kid is very happy that he is in at top publics OOS and an Ivy (what DCUM calls one of those “second tier” ivys). Also waitlisted at another Ivy ( second tier again) and an Ivy+. We are in MCPS.
Anonymous
Post 04/18/2026 14:31     Subject: Re:Predict DS's chances at these schools
At our FCPS school, kids with that GPA and SAT score always get into UVA (according to Naviance). The ones I know didn't have amazing ECs either.

Obviously you never know, but I think your child has a great chance at UVA.
Anonymous
Post 04/18/2026 13:08     Subject: Re:Predict DS's chances at these schools
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:OP adding that he is an excellent writer and that I would be shocked if his recommendations were not excellent. Several of his teachers are big fans of his.

Do people think ED at UVA is likely in?


It’s impossible to say, but he has as good as chance as any. You must understand there is so much about this process that is random. He has the stats to get in. Period. Will he? It depends on what’s in his application and who reads and what they’re looking for.


It’s not obvious the stats are enough for some of these schools. Will depend on whether in top 5 percent of class or not from a public.
Anonymous
Post 04/18/2026 13:03     Subject: Re:Predict DS's chances at these schools
Anonymous wrote:OP adding that he is an excellent writer and that I would be shocked if his recommendations were not excellent. Several of his teachers are big fans of his.

Do people think ED at UVA is likely in?


My kid’s teacher who wrote his letter also openly gave him very strong compliments. But I suspect the teacher doesn’t know how to write a strong letter from the perspective of top schools.
Anonymous
Post 04/18/2026 12:59     Subject: Predict DS's chances at these schools
OP, don’t be discouraged by these comments. I have seen so many kids get into competitive schools and they did not have the credentials your son has. He will get into many on your list. Duke/Vanderbilt likely not - mostly because they have institutional priorities that may not include your son.
Anonymous
Post 04/18/2026 12:57     Subject: Re:Predict DS's chances at these schools
Anonymous wrote:OP adding that he is an excellent writer and that I would be shocked if his recommendations were not excellent. Several of his teachers are big fans of his.

Do people think ED at UVA is likely in?


It’s impossible to say, but he has as good as chance as any. You must understand there is so much about this process that is random. He has the stats to get in. Period. Will he? It depends on what’s in his application and who reads and what they’re looking for.
Anonymous
Post 04/18/2026 12:55     Subject: Predict DS's chances at these schools
If looking at UGA, also consider Auburn and USC (South Carolina). Auburn releases decisions as early as October
Anonymous
Post 04/18/2026 12:51     Subject: Re:Predict DS's chances at these schools
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:OP here and more ideas on true safeties would be helpful, too.
James Madison College (and honors college) at Michigan State. Also, be sure to submit by the 10/15 deadline, including having all supporting materials sent, at UGA.


DP - If looking at Michigan State, apply by October 15, even though the EA deadline is Nov 1. That maximizes merit potential and hopefully helps with a quick decision. MY DC heard back within 2-3 weeks of applying.
Anonymous
Post 04/18/2026 12:45     Subject: Re:Predict DS's chances at these schools it
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous
UMC FCPS Public. 3.95/4.5 GPA, 1520 SAT one sitting, will take again, one varsity sport, lots of volunteer work, PT summer job, VP of an academic club 3 years, tutoring. An academic department award in 10th. 9 APs through 11th, scheduled for 6 in 12th. 10th grade AP exams - 2 5s, 2 4s.

Duke ED 👎
Vanderbilt 👎
UVA possible esp ED
VT likey
W&M likely
UNC 👎
Mich 👎
Wisc likely
UGA unlikely

Rigor seems fine. Sat is fine

Awards missing (academic in school award means very little)

Ecs are very mediocre and will add very little

Why would kid consider schools with such varying student population numbers? Such different experiences



Without the list of AP's taken along with the list of AP's offered at the school but not taken by this student, you cannot determine rigor the way the college will. This process has been detailed by AO's on blogs for years as well as in the 2018 book Who Gets In and Why. The rigor-race has amped up since then, due to parental pressure more kids are let into honors or AP, making the number of AP or the weighted GPA irrelevant without context.
Ivy+ schools are not subtle at information sessions: they want applicants to challenge themselves with coursework in every area, especially the areas they do not plan to study and/or feel weaker in. Multiple said almost the exact same phrase in tours from 2022-2024 when we toured all over with both of ours.

This student, with the two 4s and two 5s on AP so far, is not likely a top-20 contender unless the 4s were notoriously difficult and/or rare APs for a 10th grader. The AP scoring was shifted in 2024 such that quite a large group gets 4 or higher. 4 is the new 3 for most AP tests. Top schools only accept 5s and have been that way since 2021, even before the change in AP score distribution.
Most APs offered to 10th graders are easy and should be easy 5s for a student who is T20/ivy level.


9 aps thru junior year likely means in fcps:

Ap world his (yes)
Ap comp sci (no)
Ap csp (yes)
Ap lang (yes)
Ap gov or us his (yes)
Ap math (no if precal, yes if calc ab and then bc)
Ap env sci (no)
Ap other Science (yes)

So prob 7/10 are considered rigorous
Anonymous
Post 04/18/2026 12:23     Subject: Re:Predict DS's chances at these schools it
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous
UMC FCPS Public. 3.95/4.5 GPA, 1520 SAT one sitting, will take again, one varsity sport, lots of volunteer work, PT summer job, VP of an academic club 3 years, tutoring. An academic department award in 10th. 9 APs through 11th, scheduled for 6 in 12th. 10th grade AP exams - 2 5s, 2 4s.

Duke ED 👎
Vanderbilt 👎
UVA possible esp ED
VT likey
W&M likely
UNC 👎
Mich 👎
Wisc likely
UGA unlikely

Rigor seems fine. Sat is fine

Awards missing (academic in school award means very little)

Ecs are very mediocre and will add very little

Why would kid consider schools with such varying student population numbers? Such different experiences



Without the list of AP's taken along with the list of AP's offered at the school but not taken by this student, you cannot determine rigor the way the college will. This process has been detailed by AO's on blogs for years as well as in the 2018 book Who Gets In and Why. The rigor-race has amped up since then, due to parental pressure more kids are let into honors or AP, making the number of AP or the weighted GPA irrelevant without context.
Ivy+ schools are not subtle at information sessions: they want applicants to challenge themselves with coursework in every area, especially the areas they do not plan to study and/or feel weaker in. Multiple said almost the exact same phrase in tours from 2022-2024 when we toured all over with both of ours.

This student, with the two 4s and two 5s on AP so far, is not likely a top-20 contender unless the 4s were notoriously difficult and/or rare APs for a 10th grader. The AP scoring was shifted in 2024 such that quite a large group gets 4 or higher. 4 is the new 3 for most AP tests. Top schools only accept 5s and have been that way since 2021, even before the change in AP score distribution.
Most APs offered to 10th graders are easy and should be easy 5s for a student who is T20/ivy level.
Anonymous
Post 04/18/2026 12:21     Subject: Predict DS's chances at these schools
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:UGA is not a safety for most people anymore- not even for top in-state kids.


Only if your SAT is 1300s.


And not top 20%.


In my kid’s school, average students got into UGA oos.


I live in GA where a lot of public and private schools aren’t as competitive as schools in some other parts of the country. Wish that wasn’t the case but it’s true. It’s really about context. An “average” student at a top DMV private or public could be just as well prepared as the top student from an average GA public.

I see what you mean. My kid goes to a decent private school. I’m puzzled by why someone spread the false info that UGA is hard to get into!
Anonymous
Post 04/18/2026 12:17     Subject: Re:Predict DS's chances at these schools it
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous
UMC FCPS Public. 3.95/4.5 GPA, 1520 SAT one sitting, will take again, one varsity sport, lots of volunteer work, PT summer job, VP of an academic club 3 years, tutoring. An academic department award in 10th. 9 APs through 11th, scheduled for 6 in 12th. 10th grade AP exams - 2 5s, 2 4s.

Duke ED 👎
Vanderbilt 👎
UVA possible esp ED
VT likey
W&M likely
UNC 👎
Mich 👎
Wisc likely
UGA unlikely

Rigor seems fine. Sat is fine

Awards missing (academic in school award means very little)

Ecs are very mediocre and will add very little

Why would kid consider schools with such varying student population numbers? Such different experiences


Duh, looks like they are most of the best non-California, non-Ivy, & non-Catholic schools that have Div 1 sports & excellent academics.

I’m puzzled as to why most people choose schools mainly based on their size and location!
Anonymous
Post 04/18/2026 12:16     Subject: Predict DS's chances at these schools
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:My DS with a similar profile (with over 1000 hours of volunteering including leadership role, research assistant with Prof at a local university, national competition but no top 3 award, act 36, WGPA 4.9+) was rejected at Duke after ED deferral. Both waitlisted for freshman and offered sophomore transfer at Vandy RD. In at Wisconsin, UVA out of state, UNC out of states. Waitlisted at Michigan EA.
Did not apply to others.


Would bet $ that there was an issue with rigor: there was at least one if not two core areas where the student did not take the highest level course available at the high school.


She already mentioned that this profile got into an Ivy and other schools not on the OP’s list!
Anonymous
Post 04/18/2026 12:12     Subject: Predict DS's chances at these schools
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:UGA is not a safety for most people anymore- not even for top in-state kids.


Only if your SAT is 1300s.


And not top 20%.


In my kid’s school, average students got into UGA oos.


same. they take 20+ from our private, well into the mid-range GPA and 1300s SAT. They defer a lot EA then take them all in RD.
Anonymous
Post 04/18/2026 12:10     Subject: Predict DS's chances at these schools
Anonymous wrote:My DS with a similar profile (with over 1000 hours of volunteering including leadership role, research assistant with Prof at a local university, national competition but no top 3 award, act 36, WGPA 4.9+) was rejected at Duke after ED deferral. Both waitlisted for freshman and offered sophomore transfer at Vandy RD. In at Wisconsin, UVA out of state, UNC out of states. Waitlisted at Michigan EA.
Did not apply to others.


Would bet $ that there was an issue with rigor: there was at least one if not two core areas where the student did not take the highest level course available at the high school.