Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 17:11     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:Ok I’ll play. PK3.
SWS
Van Ness (proximity)
AppleTree LP
CHML
JO Wilson
Miner

Would not move after school starts.


Interesting, your ib is presumably Amidon (maybe Brent?) so did you not list it or the apple trees in SW? And not interested in global citizens in buzzard point? You must have a good current childcare situation! Miner seems like the outlier here...if you are open to that, I would have listed at Oklahoma Ave and filled out the list with other hill pks like friendship chamberlain, payne, Maury, Peabody, etc.
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 17:02     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I'll play. K. Happy with our current school so I only lotteried for true reaches that I'd actually leave I for: Ross and Ludlow-Taylor.


Those seem to be really odd choices. Ludlow is not worth a commute.


My guess is that op lives on capitol hill, somewhere oob for Stuart Hobson (or perhaps at a different sh feeder) and can commute via red line to a job near dupont.
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 16:54     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:PK3: (actually live within Powell boundaries)
LAMB
Oyster
Powell
Bancroft (English)
Bruce-Monroe (English)
Marie Reed (English)
Lewis
Barnard
Dorothy Height


OP with some clarifying questions.

So you have IB preference at Powell?

Which schools (if any) would you move for after school starts.


Yes, would have in-bound preference. Could drive/bike and the in-town ones are on the way to work.


OP here. I went ahead and assumed you'd take a waitlist offer in October. Also - I'm assuming when you say (English) you mean English dominant, and not English track (as it would not make sense for someone with LAMB and Bancroft near the top of the list to put the Marie Reed English Track and not Spanish track). Happy to fix if I'm wrong about any of my assumptions.

Here's where that leaves you:

LAMB - 8%
Oyster - they don't have a PK3, so 0%
Powell (IB) - 65%
Bancroft (English) - 0%
Bruce-Monroe (English) - 0%
Marie Reed (English) - 0%
Lewis - 0%
Barnard - 0%
Dorothy Height - 27%


Thanks - yes and yes - and better informed now!
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 16:50     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
OP here - I've gotta run, but I'll pick this thread back up the next time I have some free time - this was fun! Feel free to submit more lists in my absence, I'll do the math when I can.
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 16:49     Subject: Re:Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:How about Latin 2nd Street for 8th and 9th? No sibling.


OP here - but are those two siblings with each other? The one going into 8th and the one going into 9th? Or are you asking, for example, because you're going to lottery for your rising 8th grader this year and then if he doesn't get in, again next year for 9th?


Oh and would you change schools in October?


Trying for 8th, would potentially try again for 9th. I see that it’s 4% for 9th (to be honest, may rank a selective HS higher). I’m guessing that it’s essentially zero for 8th. Would be willing to switch in October.
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 16:46     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:9th for Eastern, Sojourner Truth


OP here. Eastern has cleared their wait list for 9th grade every year for the past five years, and they've done it by June. You'll get in no problem.



I was spooked by high attendance at the Eastern open house. And I liked what I saw!


OP here - I should have modulated my answer there a bit.

Each of the last five years, you would have gotten in, no problem, 100% chance each year of being in by June. But I can't rule out something changing! Maybe this year is different! But if I were you I'd feel very good.
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 16:39     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:9th for Eastern, Sojourner Truth


OP here. Eastern has cleared their wait list for 9th grade every year for the past five years, and they've done it by June. You'll get in no problem.



I was spooked by high attendance at the Eastern open house. And I liked what I saw!
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 16:39     Subject: Re:Data-driven lottery predictions!
What about this, for K and PK3, no preferences (knowing the PK3 has virtually no chance at the DCPS but is listed just to be safe with a focus of possibly helping the K get into a citywide or charter):

SWS
Maury
Brent
LT
Yu Ying
ITDS
Lee
Hyde-Addison
Mundo Cook
JO Wilson
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 16:35     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:OP, I am sending you a virtual bouquet of flowers. Thank you for the fun thread!

Now you just need a cool nickname. The Green Eye Shade Guru? The Lottery Nerd? Someone more creative than I am please weigh in.


OP here.

Will accept other more creative options, but The Lottery Nerd seems to fit
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 16:34     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:Just the non-selective high schools on my list for 9th:

Latin 2nd
Latin Cooper
DCI French
DCI Chinese
DCI Spanish
Eastern
Sojourner Truth
EL Haynes


OP here. Assuming you'd switch schools in October...

Latin 2nd - 4%
Latin Cooper - 22% (this is based on just one year of data, so who really knows?)
DCI French - 0%
DCI Chinese - 8%
DCI Spanish - 0%
Eastern - 66%
Sojourner Truth - 0%
EL Haynes - 0%
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 16:27     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:9th for Eastern, Sojourner Truth


OP here. Eastern has cleared their wait list for 9th grade every year for the past five years, and they've done it by June. You'll get in no problem.

Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 16:22     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I'll play. K. Happy with our current school so I only lotteried for true reaches that I'd actually leave for: Ross and Ludlow-Taylor.


OP here - assuming you'd change schools in October:

Ross - 18%
LT - 10%
Nothing - 72%


Higher than I thought, but good that nothing is a fine outcome for us.

Thank you, OP! You're a rockstar!
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 16:21     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Ok I’ll play. PK3.
SWS
Van Ness (proximity)
AppleTree LP
CHML
JO Wilson
Miner

Would not move after school starts.


SWS - 2%
Van Ness (proximity) - 0%
AppleTree LP - 57%
CHML - 0%
JO Wilson - 16%
Miner - 13%
Nothing - 12%

Interesting fact about School Within School - if I'm reading this data right, there were two SIBLINGS who didn't get in for PK3 last year. Those parents must be furious.



lol take a look at Bancroft English dominant. Barely a chance.


OP here - yeah, but that's because there's a lot else going on - in bounds preference, potentially proximity preference, English vs. Spanish dominant. At a citywide school like SWS or a charter - you expect that all siblings are getting in.
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 16:18     Subject: Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Ok I’ll play. PK3.
SWS
Van Ness (proximity)
AppleTree LP
CHML
JO Wilson
Miner

Would not move after school starts.


SWS - 2%
Van Ness (proximity) - 0%
AppleTree LP - 57%
CHML - 0%
JO Wilson - 16%
Miner - 13%
Nothing - 12%

Interesting fact about School Within School - if I'm reading this data right, there were two SIBLINGS who didn't get in for PK3 last year. Those parents must be furious.



lol take a look at Bancroft English dominant. Barely a chance.
Anonymous
Post 03/06/2026 16:17     Subject: Re:Data-driven lottery predictions!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:How about Latin 2nd Street for 8th and 9th? No sibling.


OP here - but are those two siblings with each other? The one going into 8th and the one going into 9th? Or are you asking, for example, because you're going to lottery for your rising 8th grader this year and then if he doesn't get in, again next year for 9th?


Oh and would you change schools in October?