G fund is the the best fund right now if you are remotely interested in preserving the gains of the last decade, waiting out THE CRAZINESS, and then buying back in later on when stock prices have plummeted. It doesn’t take a genius to see we are going into a massive recession and God knows what else. Yea I get it, in 20 years when you retire it’ll all be great and S&P will be at all time highs and blah blah. Yeah, I’m out of C fund for the foreseeable future because I guarantee in one year I’ll be able to buy stocks at a massive discount. No one else at all concerned with world events? Oil? Good luck to you.

I won’t miss out. It’s very easy to basically click “exchange” and G becomes C or I.

I am simply staying in G temporally because the entire market is fked and we are not in normal times as I laid out before.

I moved into G three weeks ago. Let’s see if I was right in a month.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Guys, it’s cool if you want to keep buying VOO while oil climbs to $100+ a barrel (with downstream effects not priced in fully), we are seeing zero job growth(thanks tariffs), and there are basically probably boots on the ground in Iran, but yeah I’m gonna keep my dough in G fund now. Let’s all meet up again in a few weeks or longer and see who was right! My guess is me. You people are permabulls. I’m so curious. Why are you bullish? In what ways are we going to see sustained movement upward? Pleeeeease explain it all.

Because we don’t look at stock market returns in time horizons of “a few weeks” and don’t let politics and short term situations cloud judgment (as much as we may disagree with the politics of the current administration). This has played out time and time again. The market could drop 30%, I’m not changing. I’ll easily beat you over the long term because you are guessing. I’m not guessing, I’m systematically investing in the S&P 500 when I receive funds.

Agree.

Unfortunately the other poster probably won't be convinced until they take a big loss (or miss out on the huge gain/recovery).

Anonymous wrote:Guys, it’s cool if you want to keep buying VOO while oil climbs to $100+ a barrel (with downstream effects not priced in fully), we are seeing zero job growth(thanks tariffs), and there are basically probably boots on the ground in Iran, but yeah I’m gonna keep my dough in G fund now. Let’s all meet up again in a few weeks or longer and see who was right! My guess is me. You people are permabulls. I’m so curious. Why are you bullish? In what ways are we going to see sustained movement upward? Pleeeeease explain it all.

Because we don’t look at stock market returns in time horizons of “a few weeks” and don’t let politics and short term situations cloud judgment (as much as we may disagree with the politics of the current administration). This has played out time and time again. The market could drop 30%, I’m not changing. I’ll easily beat you over the long term because you are guessing. I’m not guessing, I’m systematically investing in the S&P 500 when I receive funds.

Guys, it’s cool if you want to keep buying VOO while oil climbs to $100+ a barrel (with downstream effects not priced in fully), we are seeing zero job growth(thanks tariffs), and there are basically probably boots on the ground in Iran, but yeah I’m gonna keep my dough in G fund now. Let’s all meet up again in a few weeks or longer and see who was right! My guess is me. You people are permabulls. I’m so curious. Why are you bullish? In what ways are we going to see sustained movement upward? Pleeeeease explain it all.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I pretty sure I’ve timed this perfectly so far. Still out of the market. You all can read the news. I’m sure you’re seeing $150 or $200 a barrel oil in the horizon like I am. Also, we’ve not yet begun to price in the effects of it all. From fertilizer prices to who knows what. I also consume massive amounts of varied news to ensure I’m not stuck in a Fox News hole. I’m still out of the market in G and have saved TONS OF MONEY.

the market is down 4% for the month. how much did you move to G? 4% is noise.

Also how much money did they lose during the tariff scare this time last year. Acting like this over a 4% drop haha. What did they do when the market dropped like 20% and subsequently climbed like 30%. Im sure they timed that perfectly….

Anonymous wrote:I pretty sure I’ve timed this perfectly so far. Still out of the market. You all can read the news. I’m sure you’re seeing $150 or $200 a barrel oil in the horizon like I am. Also, we’ve not yet begun to price in the effects of it all. From fertilizer prices to who knows what. I also consume massive amounts of varied news to ensure I’m not stuck in a Fox News hole. I’m still out of the market in G and have saved TONS OF MONEY.

the market is down 4% for the month. how much did you move to G? 4% is noise.

I pretty sure I’ve timed this perfectly so far. Still out of the market. You all can read the news. I’m sure you’re seeing $150 or $200 a barrel oil in the horizon like I am. Also, we’ve not yet begun to price in the effects of it all. From fertilizer prices to who knows what. I also consume massive amounts of varied news to ensure I’m not stuck in a Fox News hole. I’m still out of the market in G and have saved TONS OF MONEY.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Basically my entire point is that yeah does it make sense to leave your portfolio alone for years. Yes. Boglehead 101.

However, I can also see that now is not a great time AT ALL for stocks because of a plethora of reasons and literally clicking a button to move into G is all it take to stave off the massive losses of the last few weeks. If there is CREDIBLE and VERIFIABLE evidence that things have calmed internationally, then I’m all in back to C fund mixed with I fund. Until then, the sidelines in G are beautiful. The market is going to continue to go red days. Once I’ve seen enough value loss and stock market days down I’m going to buy back in and have a sht ton more shares that when I sold two weeks ago.

What makes you think you can outperform the stock market? Have you done this in the past? If so, over what period of time?

They haven't and in for a rude awakening. I'm absolutely not cheer-leading the current market, but I do at least have 30 years of experience to see what happens to people who think they are perfect market timers. They never mention all the gains they missed out on or when they panic sell at the absolutely worst time.

Anonymous wrote:Basically my entire point is that yeah does it make sense to leave your portfolio alone for years. Yes. Boglehead 101.

However, I can also see that now is not a great time AT ALL for stocks because of a plethora of reasons and literally clicking a button to move into G is all it take to stave off the massive losses of the last few weeks. If there is CREDIBLE and VERIFIABLE evidence that things have calmed internationally, then I’m all in back to C fund mixed with I fund. Until then, the sidelines in G are beautiful. The market is going to continue to go red days. Once I’ve seen enough value loss and stock market days down I’m going to buy back in and have a sht ton more shares that when I sold two weeks ago.

What makes you think you can outperform the stock market? Have you done this in the past? If so, over what period of time?

Preservation of capital in G going as planned.

Basically my entire point is that yeah does it make sense to leave your portfolio alone for years. Yes. Boglehead 101.

However, I can also see that now is not a great time AT ALL for stocks because of a plethora of reasons and literally clicking a button to move into G is all it take to stave off the massive losses of the last few weeks. If there is CREDIBLE and VERIFIABLE evidence that things have calmed internationally, then I’m all in back to C fund mixed with I fund. Until then, the sidelines in G are beautiful. The market is going to continue to go red days. Once I’ve seen enough value loss and stock market days down I’m going to buy back in and have a sht ton more shares that when I sold two weeks ago.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Moving to to 100% G is stupid if retirement is more than a decade out. Most professionals will tell you that. Everyone who moved to G during the market uncertainty in the dot com, Great Recession, the pandemic is doing worse than people who remained invested. It’s almost impossible to be right twice every time there’s a major event.

It’s been working for me. I’ve preserved 100% of my capital in G since I moved it like 9 days ago or whatever. Enjoy your stock drops. Been some big ones the last week. Might dip my toe back in next week or next month. But I still have the feeling we have yet to see the bottom..

LOL, you're talking about 9 days and prior poster says retirement 10 years + out. You really are doing yourself a disservice treating a main retirement account like a swing account. No, the "losses" over 9 days do not matter. Also, as you see on days like today, it can jump up 2-3% overnight just on news. There is absolutely no way to trade around this in a TSP.

The general trend is down. You just don’t want to admit it to yourself. You have normalcy bias that the stock market just goes up. I don’t blame you. It’s has been on a sustained run for a long time. This entire mess is in no way over. I’m in G for weeks or months until I see a sustained upward trend. I don’t give a fk. You are way too optimistic about current times.

I see inflation, debt, job loss and just general uncertainty and looniness and I’m sitting it out for the short term. I’ve been right so far and I don’t care today was green. Today’s market upswing is an outlier. Anyone not ensconced in a poor news stream can tell what’s happening.

I’ll move out of G once I feel stocks are sufficiently on sale. They are still too high based on all that’s going on.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Moving to to 100% G is stupid if retirement is more than a decade out. Most professionals will tell you that. Everyone who moved to G during the market uncertainty in the dot com, Great Recession, the pandemic is doing worse than people who remained invested. It’s almost impossible to be right twice every time there’s a major event.

It’s been working for me. I’ve preserved 100% of my capital in G since I moved it like 9 days ago or whatever. Enjoy your stock drops. Been some big ones the last week. Might dip my toe back in next week or next month. But I still have the feeling we have yet to see the bottom..

LOL, you're talking about 9 days and prior poster says retirement 10 years + out. You really are doing yourself a disservice treating a main retirement account like a swing account. No, the "losses" over 9 days do not matter. Also, as you see on days like today, it can jump up 2-3% overnight just on news. There is absolutely no way to trade around this in a TSP.

The G fund is the best place for a while. Anyone else?