Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Pollsters can no longer predict what the sample of actual voters looks like. They make estimates based on past voting behavior, but I think way too many once in a lifetime events have happened in the past decade (pandemic & deaths of lots of older Republican voters, overturn of Roe, Jan 6 coup attempt, etc).

If you can’t accurately predict who will show up to vote, there’s no way for your poll to be accurate.

It wouldn’t surprise me if women outvote men 55-45 in the November elections nationwide. If that’s the margin, then Republicans get absolutely crushed.

Not with the electoral college but maybe with the un important popular vote

If they use this logic in the general, it will become know as Trump's Folly. The MAGA movement has continually discounted the effect that the overturning of RvW and state pushes against family planning is having on their election results. The overturning of RvW, the banning of abortion of in many states, the attack on IVF have all changed election results without having nearly as big of an impact on polls. The polls are deceptive because many people, especially many women and young voters, who normally do not vote, are coming out to vote in record numbers.

Since the fall of RvW, Democrats have won nearly all elections where the abortion and fertility issues have been on the soapbox. From the state constitutional amendments in red Kansas and red Ohio, to the election of Democrats in deep red territory, like Andy Beshear in Kentucky to Marilyn Lands in Alabama. And also the purple areas like Virginia moving blue (both houses of the legistature went from leaning red to leaning blue while governor Glenn Youngkin had abortion restrictions on his platform).

Keep burying your head in the sand, but you will see more purple areas voting blue and more red areas going purple, with mixed statewide results. Family planning issues will be the keystone issue this year, just as it was in 2022 and 2023.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Pollsters can no longer predict what the sample of actual voters looks like. They make estimates based on past voting behavior, but I think way too many once in a lifetime events have happened in the past decade (pandemic & deaths of lots of older Republican voters, overturn of Roe, Jan 6 coup attempt, etc).

If you can’t accurately predict who will show up to vote, there’s no way for your poll to be accurate.

It wouldn’t surprise me if women outvote men 55-45 in the November elections nationwide. If that’s the margin, then Republicans get absolutely crushed.

Not with the electoral college but maybe with the un important popular vote

Every special election in the past two years has shown huge swings toward Democrats even in deep red areas of the country. Even if the Democratic candidate didn't win the election, the Republican candidate was barely winning in a place that went +10-20% for Trump in 2020. That's frightening for Republicans and it means Biden has a legit chance of sweeping every swing state and maybe even taking a few consistently Red states.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Pollsters can no longer predict what the sample of actual voters looks like. They make estimates based on past voting behavior, but I think way too many once in a lifetime events have happened in the past decade (pandemic & deaths of lots of older Republican voters, overturn of Roe, Jan 6 coup attempt, etc).

If you can’t accurately predict who will show up to vote, there’s no way for your poll to be accurate.

It wouldn’t surprise me if women outvote men 55-45 in the November elections nationwide. If that’s the margin, then Republicans get absolutely crushed.

Not with the electoral college but maybe with the un important popular vote

Anonymous wrote:

Pollsters can no longer predict what the sample of actual voters looks like. They make estimates based on past voting behavior, but I think way too many once in a lifetime events have happened in the past decade (pandemic & deaths of lots of older Republican voters, overturn of Roe, Jan 6 coup attempt, etc).

If you can’t accurately predict who will show up to vote, there’s no way for your poll to be accurate.

It wouldn’t surprise me if women outvote men 55-45 in the November elections nationwide. If that’s the margin, then Republicans get absolutely crushed.

Anonymous wrote:Alabama, baby. It was a bellwether in 2017 and I’m glad to see it pop up again.

This is a big fd!

Here's why it's bad for Joe Biden

Alabama, baby. It was a bellwether in 2017 and I’m glad to see it pop up again.

I knew about the flipped state house seat in PA the same night that Suozzi won but all these implications didn’t occur to me.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No matter how many votes Trump gets in November, he'll claim he won. And, because of this, some number of Trump supporters will take up arms against the United States again.

He's a threat to democracy, and the number of Republicans who simply don't care about the threat he poses is beyond disturbing.

You seem to be under the impression he’s going to lose… have you looked a national and swing state polls recently?

Or betting odds?

Trump is the favorite to win, currently.

Who needs polls? Look at all the recent special elections for better indications of what really happens on elections day.

Yeah, sure. Don’t be all *surprised pikachu face when November comes around, though.

I won't be. The poll for the special election on Tuesday in NY was not correct. Showed candidates basically tied within the margin of error but the Dem crushed it by 8 points.

The margin of error goes both ways. And the results of the election were within the MOE of both of the polls done at the beginning of February.

There were 3 polls done in February and the result was only within the margin of error for one of them, and even then was barely within it.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/2024/new-york/3/

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Really good analysis of what's going on here. I would rather be a Dem than an R.

+1 We already had the 2022 Midterms and usually the party of the president loses big in the federal elections held immediately following the presidential election. That didn’t happen in 2022. Democrats lost control of the House but just barely and R’s underperformed across the board. I would 100% rather be us than them right now! Yes I know things are different when it comes to Trump vs. any other Republican, but he already lost to Biden once.

Democrats will certainly take back the House in 24. But it's a bad map for Democrats in the Senate this election cycle. I don't see how they retain it. It's a really bad map. They'll get it back in 26, but in the meantime....

Polling is not looking good for Biden. He's an elderly geriatric who really shouldn't be in the Oval Office making life and death decisions.

Trump is Trump. Roughly a third of the country subscribes to that insanity. And a third will be enough when Democrats put up a weak candidate and third parties perform strongly.

So, likely result is Trump prez, Republicans take the Senate, and Democrats take back the House.

I don’t think you understand how central the right to bodily autonomy is to people.

+1. The special election yesterday was illustrative. On this issue...the GOP candidate was a mess. She refused to take a clear position.

We can tolerate a candidate that is personally against abortion as long as they will actively support pro choice, roe level protection policies. If the candidate tries to mealy mouth that, they are out. We are interested in getting out rights back and we expect out representatives to fight for that.

And trump will never be credible if he tries to take a pro choice position. That ship sailed with Dobbs.

And also, Trump will never be credible. Full stop. I oppose him. But even someone who is mostly aligned with him has to acknowledge (privately if not publicly) that he lies on a scale the dwarfs any other public figure.

all politicians lie their butt off, including both Trump and Biden, but Biden's brain is such mush he can't remember simple things when he served as VP or when his son died. no matter what side you are on, you have to admit Biden is getting less fit to serve by the day.

Hur sounds like Barr here. Cherry picks comments while ignoring the meat of the report. I need to see the deposition before I can conclude his brain is mush. Trump said "I don't recall" maybe 500 times in one of his depositions. Does this mean he is no longer sentient?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No matter how many votes Trump gets in November, he'll claim he won. And, because of this, some number of Trump supporters will take up arms against the United States again.

He's a threat to democracy, and the number of Republicans who simply don't care about the threat he poses is beyond disturbing.

You seem to be under the impression he’s going to lose… have you looked a national and swing state polls recently?

Or betting odds?

Trump is the favorite to win, currently.

Who needs polls? Look at all the recent special elections for better indications of what really happens on elections day.

Yeah, sure. Don’t be all *surprised pikachu face when November comes around, though.

I won't be. The poll for the special election on Tuesday in NY was not correct. Showed candidates basically tied within the margin of error but the Dem crushed it by 8 points.

The margin of error goes both ways. And the results of the election were within the MOE of both of the polls done at the beginning of February.

Ok. Well then what use are these polls with these big MOEs? They don't really serve much purpose. The media was calling is a tight race, neck and neck, etc. Nonsense. They twist it to make a better story or more dramatic or something but it is very misleading.

https://www.axios.com/2024/02/16/michigan-swing-voters-biden-age-memory

Brutal

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No matter how many votes Trump gets in November, he'll claim he won. And, because of this, some number of Trump supporters will take up arms against the United States again.

He's a threat to democracy, and the number of Republicans who simply don't care about the threat he poses is beyond disturbing.

You seem to be under the impression he’s going to lose… have you looked a national and swing state polls recently?

Or betting odds?

Trump is the favorite to win, currently.

Who needs polls? Look at all the recent special elections for better indications of what really happens on elections day.

Yeah, sure. Don’t be all *surprised pikachu face when November comes around, though.

I won't be. The poll for the special election on Tuesday in NY was not correct. Showed candidates basically tied within the margin of error but the Dem crushed it by 8 points.

The margin of error goes both ways. And the results of the election were within the MOE of both of the polls done at the beginning of February.