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Anonymous wrote:About six months ago I raised the pending CRE collapse with Frumin. From the look on his face it was the first time he’d heard of the issue. It did not inspire confidence.

It was probably the look of excitement that once the employers leave, there will be more places to locate pickleball courts!

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Anonymous wrote:Federal agencies will shrink footprints when leases expire.

Feds and DC govt workers are not big spenders on dining and after work recreation.

The point is Uncle Sam doesn't want an economic meltdown where banks and investors lose trillions of dollars. It will be a massive recession. It goes beyond DC. At a minimum they'll call everyone back to the office across the country.

Anonymous wrote:About six months ago I raised the pending CRE collapse with Frumin. From the look on his face it was the first time he’d heard of the issue. It did not inspire confidence.

Anonymous wrote:Federal agencies will shrink footprints when leases expire.

Feds and DC govt workers are not big spenders on dining and after work recreation.

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Anonymous wrote:It's devastating how Bowser and the Council have taken people's investment in our city for granted. At what point will there be a tourism drop off too? Here's a thought- make the city safe and welcoming? Spend money on that first and foremost. We've spent ten years on affordable housing and violence interruptors, and our city is more unpleasant than it's ever been.

The whole "death spiral" thing is being overdone. Despite the recent rise in crime and downtown hollowing out, there's been no decline in demand for residential real estate. In fact, DC 's population is growing again after shrinking slightly before and during COVID. I don't think CRE in the downtown core are strongly linked to residential demand anymore. When I was living in DC, many of my friends (me included) worked in the suburbs but chose to live in the city because of the urban culture and amenities. Young people will still want to live in the city even if their offices move. In fact, work from home liberates people to live where they want - lots will move out to the exurbs, but there will also be those who always wanted to live in a city who now can.

Taxes on CRE are the rock on which everything rests.

This is really the case everywhere. CRE consumes little in terms of services but generates massive property tax revenue.

And right there’s DC’s death spiral.

I'm from DC and I've seen sheer arrogance on the part of the Mayor and Council in terms of showing CRE it's of value to our town. There's a very pooh pooh "deal with it" attitude, and it seems it's catching up? What a shame.

Maybe I’m misunderstanding your post. Are you willing to pay more in taxes to fund services that are inevitably going to be cut? Besides offices DC has little comparative fall-back tax base.
RTO and commuters are definitely not returning so where will the money be found?

I am upset with how pooh pooh and cavalier our city has been about big tenants (FBI, Sports Teams, Etc) leaving. They seem to think the city has endless.appeal and... It doesn't. Not in its current state.

I see. Agreed.

There's some kind of obtuseness which started when they fell in with luxury condos developers, like there was just an insatiable demand for DC footprint. What they didn't understand was that was just short term demand by developers with dollars in their eyes, not tenants. The arrogance and obtuseness of the developer -delusional do goody of greedy (or sometimes both)politician-GGW cabal . They have chewed up a beautiful city and made it trash!

Your feral crime cretins have chewed up a beautiful city and made it trash with the help of woke idiot politicians.[/quote

The appeal of spending any time in DC, never mind living here, is greatly diminished. That is why the narrative that there is no crime crisis, only MAGA worry about personal safety, etc. is so aggressive as is the zeal to try to doxx DC Crime Facts. Here since very early 90s, we planned to be lifers, put a lot of $$ and volunteer time into DCPS and now we are actively planning to leave as soon as work allows. Likely to leave the DMV at this point, the 2nd look act type bills and focus on RJ have been embraced by NoVA and MoCo. In 90s, moving to either meant a LOT more safety, now, not as much, especially with the unchecked carjacking and spillover from DC.

People who were not here then have no idea how much things can change economically. This is not a normal way to live. Even if not directly a victim, hypervigilance takes a toll on mental and physical health. So much violent crime on WMATA during peak fare hours is shocking. I have a newly driving teen and worry they could be killed even if hand over keys. People have been carjacked on Connecticut at rush hour and now killed on K St. near City Center. A man was recently shot outside a Michelin starred restaurant there, after handing over possessions in a robbery. Eating out in Bethesda or Tysons or Old Town starts to look a lot more appealing...